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After critically examining logical, semantic and ideological constituents of the concept of "modernization", the author discusses China's economic development in comparative perspective. Threats to China's security and autonomy and its ability to control external forces. Internal factors leading to the rejection of autarky. The conditions for the country's economic modernization. China's social development in comparative perspective. (DÜI-Sen)

Although relations between the Communist parties of the USSR and the PRC were broken off in 1964, 'state-to-state' relations never ruptured completely. Since the severe crisis of 1969, caused by the Cultural Revolution and the Soviet intervention in Czechoslovakia, both governments have called for a 'normalization' of state relations but have accompanied such appeals with a great deal of mutual vituperation, hostile diplomatic maneuvering and military confrontation. During this period the Sino-Soviet conflict has changed character and new issues have emerged replacing old ones as obstacles to friendly relations. This article reviews developments in strictly bilateral state relations since 1969 in an effort to make clear precisely what negotiations have taken place, what proposals and demands have been made by either side, and what the issues currently are. In the concluding section some explanations are offered for why relations have developed as they have, and the prediction is made that Sino- Soviet relations will continue to improve moderately, but that the main issues are likely neither to be solved nor shelved.

This essay represents an attempt to apply some of the concepts and insights from the branch of cognitive psychology known as attribution theory to the classic problems of the arms race. The author identifies sets of nearly axiomatic assumptions - referred to as arms-use paradigms - concerning the nature of the adversary, the efficacy of various types of threats and sanctions, the nature of the values thought to be at stake, and the sources of each side's behavior. The rational consistency and armament policy effects of three basic paradigms (pure deterrence, mutually-managed deterrence, and the spiral model) are considered. Attention is directed to problems of a psy chological nature associated with movement from one paradigm to another and to the possible contributions of attribution theory in pointing out systematic psychological biases that may impede the shift to paradigms less characterized by self-reinforcing, positive feedback effects and thus prevent the development of more benign, con trollable arms policies.

This article is based on a full-length study of the cognitive behavior of highly-influential elites who deal professionally with the analysis of international politics with respect to Swedish national security. It attempts to relate findings in the field of cognitive psychology to the actual behavior of Swedish observers in the examination and interpretation of international events. Especial emphasis is given to processes of conceptualization, threat perceptions and changes in beliefs that have occurred. The derivation of 'cognitive archetypes' is discussed and these are related to the relative openness vs. constraint exhibited by elites in accommodating new information about the international environment.

This article is based on a full-length study of the cognitive behavior of highly-influential elites who deal professionally with the analysis of international politics with respect to Swedish national security. It attempts to relate findings in the field of cognitive psychology to the actual behavior of Swedish observers in the examination and inter pretation of international events. Especial emphasis is given to processes of concep tualization, threat perceptions and changes in beliefs that have occurred. The deriva tion of 'cognitive archetypes' is discussed and these are related to the relative openness vs. constraint exhibited by elites in accommodating new information about the interna tional environment.