Suchergebnisse

Background: In 2018, the European Union (EU) adopted Regulation 2018/841, which sets the accounting rules for the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector for the period 2021–2030. This regulation is part of the EU's commitments to comply with the Paris Agreement. According to the new regulation, emissions and removals for managed forest land are to be accounted against a projected forest reference level (FRL) that is estimated by each EU Member State based on the continuation of forest management practices of the reference period 2000–2009. The aim of this study is to assess how different modelling assumptions possible under the regulation may influence the FRL estimates. Applying the interlinked G4M and WoodCarbonMonitor modelling frameworks, we estimate potential FRLs for each individual EU Member State following a set of conceptual scenarios, each reflecting different modelling assumptions that are consistent with the regulation and the technical guidance document published by the European Commission. Results: The simulations of the conceptual scenarios show that differences in the underlying modelling assumptions may have a large impact on the projected FRL. Depending on the assumptions taken, the projected annual carbon sink on managed forest land in the EU varies from −319 MtCO2 to −397 MtCO 2 during the first compliance period (2021–2025) and from −296 MtCO2 to −376 MtCO2 during the second compliance period (i.e. 2026–2030). These estimates can be compared with the 2017 national GHG inventories which estimated that the forest carbon sink for managed forest land was −373 MtCO2 in 2015. On an aggregated EU level, the assumptions related to climate change and the allocation of forest management practices have the largest impacts on the FRL estimates. On the other hand, assumptions concerning the starting year of the projection, stratification of managed forest land, and timing of individual management activities are found to have relatively small impacts on the FRL estimates. Conclusions: We provide a first assessment of the level of uncertainty associated with the different assumptions discussed in the technical guidance document and the LULUCF regulation, and the impact of these assumptions on the country-specific FRL. The results highlight the importance of transparent documentation by the EU Member States on how their FRL has been calculated, and on the underlying assumptions.

National audience ; This paper focuses on environmental goods production when contracted by means of agrienvironmental agreements. It is explicitly accounted for jointness among environmental goods and for heterogeneity among farms. Two different types of agri-environmental programmes are considered: 1) part farm programmes, which give to the farmer the liberty to subscribe only a part of the eligible land, and 2) whole farm programmes, which explicitly ask for involving of all the land. Applicability of menus of contracts designed to deal with the adverse selection problem in the Principal-Agent framework is analysed using a general quadratic multi-output cost function. Obtained results are compared with the uniform payment contract option. It is proved that in some cases whole farm programmes are less expensive than part farm programmes and thus Government can save public funds by asking farmers to produce more environmental goods. Also the adverse selection is less a problem in whole farm programmes than in part farm programmes. A numerical simulation is carried out using parameters of the cost function estimated for environmental goods production by suckler cow farms in the Protected Landscape Area White Carpathians in the Czech Republic by a mathematical programming farm level model.

National audience ; This paper focuses on environmental goods production when contracted by means of agrienvironmental agreements. It is explicitly accounted for jointness among environmental goods and for heterogeneity among farms. Two different types of agri-environmental programmes are considered: 1) part farm programmes, which give to the farmer the liberty to subscribe only a part of the eligible land, and 2) whole farm programmes, which explicitly ask for involving of all the land. Applicability of menus of contracts designed to deal with the adverse selection problem in the Principal-Agent framework is analysed using a general quadratic multi-output cost function. Obtained results are compared with the uniform payment contract option. It is proved that in some cases whole farm programmes are less expensive than part farm programmes and thus Government can save public funds by asking farmers to produce more environmental goods. Also the adverse selection is less a problem in whole farm programmes than in part farm programmes. A numerical simulation is carried out using parameters of the cost function estimated for environmental goods production by suckler cow farms in the Protected Landscape Area White Carpathians in the Czech Republic by a mathematical programming farm level model.

National audience ; This paper focuses on environmental goods production when contracted by means of agrienvironmental agreements. It is explicitly accounted for jointness among environmental goods and for heterogeneity among farms. Two different types of agri-environmental programmes are considered: 1) part farm programmes, which give to the farmer the liberty to subscribe only a part of the eligible land, and 2) whole farm programmes, which explicitly ask for involving of all the land. Applicability of menus of contracts designed to deal with the adverse selection problem in the Principal-Agent framework is analysed using a general quadratic multi-output cost function. Obtained results are compared with the uniform payment contract option. It is proved that in some cases whole farm programmes are less expensive than part farm programmes and thus Government can save public funds by asking farmers to produce more environmental goods. Also the adverse selection is less a problem in whole farm programmes than in part farm programmes. A numerical simulation is carried out using parameters of the cost function estimated for environmental goods production by suckler cow farms in the Protected Landscape Area White Carpathians in the Czech Republic by a mathematical programming farm level model.

This paper focuses on environmental goods production when contracted by means of agrienvironmental agreements. It is explicitly accounted for jointness among environmental goods and for heterogeneity among farms. Two different types of agri-environmental programmes are considered: 1) part farm programmes, which give to the farmer the liberty to subscribe only a part of the eligible land, and 2) whole farm programmes, which explicitly ask for involving of all the land. Applicability of menus of contracts designed to deal with the adverse selection problem in the Principal-Agent framework is analysed using a general quadratic multi-output cost function. Obtained results are compared with the uniform payment contract option. It is proved that in some cases whole farm programmes are less expensive than part farm programmes and thus Government can save public funds by asking farmers to produce more environmental goods. Also the adverse selection is less a problem in whole farm programmes than in part farm programmes. A numerical simulation is carried out using parameters of the cost function estimated for environmental goods production by suckler cow farms in the Protected Landscape Area White Carpathians in the Czech Republic by a mathematical programming farm level model.

National audience ; This paper focuses on environmental goods production when contracted by means of agrienvironmental agreements. It is explicitly accounted for jointness among environmental goods and for heterogeneity among farms. Two different types of agri-environmental programmes are considered: 1) part farm programmes, which give to the farmer the liberty to subscribe only a part of the eligible land, and 2) whole farm programmes, which explicitly ask for involving of all the land. Applicability of menus of contracts designed to deal with the adverse selection problem in the Principal-Agent framework is analysed using a general quadratic multi-output cost function. Obtained results are compared with the uniform payment contract option. It is proved that in some cases whole farm programmes are less expensive than part farm programmes and thus Government can save public funds by asking farmers to produce more environmental goods. Also the adverse selection is less a problem in whole farm programmes than in part farm programmes. A numerical simulation is carried out using parameters of the cost function estimated for environmental goods production by suckler cow farms in the Protected Landscape Area White Carpathians in the Czech Republic by a mathematical programming farm level model.

100-year Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) are used almost universally to compare emissions of greenhouse gases in national inventories and reduction targets. GWPs have been criticised on several grounds, but little work has been done to determine global mitigation costs under alternative physics-based metrics . We used the integrated assessment model MESSAGE to compare emission pathways and abatement costs for fixed and time-dependent variants of the Global Temperature Change Potential (GTP) with those based on GWPs, for a policy goal of limiting the radiative forcing to a specified level in the year 2100. We find that fixed 100-year GTPs would increase global abatement costs (discounted and aggregated over the 21st century) under this policy goal by 5 20 % relative to 100-year GWPs, whereas time-varying GTPs would reduce costs by about 5 %. These cost differences are smaller than differences arising from alternative assumptions regarding agricultural mitigation potential and much smaller than those arising from alternative radiative forcing targets. Using the land-use model GLOBIOM, we show that alternative metrics affect food production differently in different world regions depending on regional characteristics of future land-use change to meet growing food demand. We conclude that under scenarios of complete participation, the choice of metric has a limited impact on global abatement costs but could be important for the political economy of regional and sectoral participation in collective mitigation efforts, in particular changing costs and gains over time for agriculture and energy-intensive sectors.

Cet article propose un cadre d'analyse de la production de biens environnementaux par des agriculteurs en situation d'incertitude sur les prix. La production de biens environnementaux contractée par des mesures agri-environnementales est considérée comme une activité sans risque dans le portefeuille d'activités d'un agriculteur. Les auteurs montrent que l'adoption d'une mesure agri-environnementale favorable à la biodiversité au détriment de la production bovine favorise l'intensification de cette dernière production, tandis que l'effet du niveau des paiements pour ce type de contrat sur le nombre d'hectares souscrits est ambigu. Ils montrent aussi qu'une augmentation de la variabilité de prix des outputs, et/ou une baisse du niveau d'une aide découplée, aura un effet positif (négatif) sur le nombre d'hectares dédié à la production de biodiversité en concurrence (complémentaire) avec la production bovine. Ces résultats sont illustrés à l'aide de frontières d'efficacité en mobilisant un modèle de programmation mathématique appliqué aux élevages allaitants des Monts du Cantal, en France. ; An analytical framework is proposed for analysis of environmental good production by farmers in the case of price uncertainty. Environmental good production contracted by means of agri-environmental agreements is treated as a riskless option in the farmer's production activities portfolio. It is shown that agri-environmental agreements aiming at biodiversity competing with beef production are likely to increase management intensity on the non-enrolled land, and that the effect of the payments for these agreements on the number of hectares enrolled is ambiguous. It is also demonstrated that an increase in the output price variability and/or a decrease in the level of decoupled subsidies will induce an increase (decrease) in the area enrolled in agreements aiming at biodiversity competing with (complementary to) beef production. The obtained results are illustrated by means of efficient frontiers generated using mathematical programming farm level models of suckler cow farms in Monts du Cantal, in France.

The role of improving the enforcement of Brazil's Forest Code in reducing deforestation in the Amazon has been highlighted in many studies. However, in a context of strong political pressure for loosening environmental protections, the future impacts of a nationwide implementation of the Forest Code on both environment and agriculture remain poorly understood. Here, we present a spatially explicit assessment of Brazil's 2012 Forest Code through the year 2050; specifically, we use a partial equilibrium economic model that provides a globally consistent national modeling framework with detailed representation of the agricultural sector and spatially explicit land-use change. We test for the combined or isolated impacts of the different measures of the Forest Code, including deforestation control and obligatory forest restoration with or without environmental reserve quotas. Our results show that, if rigorously enforced, the Forest Code could prevent a net loss of 53.4 million hectares (Mha) of forest and native vegetation by 2050, 43.1 Mha (81%) of which are in the Amazon alone. The control of illegal deforestation promotes the largest environmental benefits, but the obligatory restoration of illegally deforested areas creates 12.9Mha of new forested area. Environmental reserve quotas further protect 5.8Mha of undisturbed natural vegetation. Compared to a scenario without the Forest Code, by 2050, cropland area is only reduced by 4% and the cattle herd by 8%. Our results show that compliance with the Forest Code requires an increase in cattle productivity of 56% over four decades, with a combination of a higher use of supplements and an adoption of semi-intensive pasture management. We estimate that the enforcement of the Forest Code could contribute up to 1.03 PgCO2e to the ambitious GHG emissions reduction target set by Brazil for 2030.

Depuis le milieu des années 2000, l'élevage fait l'objet de vifs débats en raison de ses impacts sur le climat et l'environnement, accentués par la hausse de la consommation mondiale en viandes et produits laitiers. Les impacts et services issus des élevages sont ici étudiés à l'échelle de l'Europe, en examinant leurs effets sur les marchés, l'emploi et le travail, la consommation d'intrants, l'environnement et le climat, ainsi que les enjeux sociaux et culturels associés à l'élevage. Puis les interactions entre ces volets ou " bouquets de services " sont analysées simultanément. Ces bouquets sont déclinés dans une typologie et cartographiés selon six classes de territoires d'élevage européens à partir de deux critères : la densité en animaux et la part de prairies permanentes dans le paysage agricole. Cet ouvrage reprend les enseignements d'une expertise scientifique collective conduite par 26 experts de disciplines scientifiques complémentaires et coordonnée par l'Inra, réalisée à la demande conjointe des ministères en charge de l'Environnement et de l'Agriculture, et de l'Ademe.

Despite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-use and climate change from 1900 to 2050. During the 20th century provisioning services increased, but biodiversity and regulating services decreased. Similar trade-offs are projected for the coming decades, but they may be attenuated in a sustainability scenario. Future biodiversity loss from land-use change is projected to keep up with historical rates or reduce slightly, whereas losses due to climate change are projected to increase greatly. Renewed efforts are needed by governments to meet the 2050 vision of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Despite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-use and climate change from 1900 to 2050. During the 20th century provisioning services increased, but biodiversity and regulating services decreased. Similar trade-offs are projected for the coming decades, but they may be attenuated in a sustainability scenario. Future biodiversity loss from land-use change is projected to keep up with historical rates or reduce slightly, whereas losses due to climate change are projected to increase greatly. Renewed efforts are needed by governments to meet the 2050 vision of the Convention on Biological Diversity.