Suchergebnisse

The European Union (EU) and the Mercosur countries resumed negotiations on trade liberalization in May 2010 after several years of interruption. The article analyzes who stands to benefit and who is likely to lose if the EU liberalizes Mercosur's access to domestic beef markets. This economic assessment is performed using a partial equilibrium model for beef operating at a low level of product aggregation, paying specific attention to the role of Tariff Rate Quotas (TRQs). Consultations with experts from the meat sector allowed us to identify the allocation of the quota rents to different stakeholders. Under an agreement based on the EU's negotiation proposal, trade impacts are projected to be small due to the present quota overfill. As expected, impacts are more pronounced under the conditions set out in Mercosur's proposal. The results confirm that the distribution of quota rents can be decisive in determining welfare effects.

Climate change impacts on food production, socioeconomic changes (population and income growth in large parts of the world) and biofuel policies affecting demand quantities have risen scientific, political and public interest in long-term forecasts on food security. Whereas first quantitative analyses from global economic models are starting to appear (e.g. (von Lampe et al., under review)), similar studies on smaller regional scales are not yet available. However, acknowledging that climate change affects crop yields differently across scales and regions (e.g. (Reidsma et al., 2007)) and considering the specific political setting given through the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in Europe, the MACSUR project focuses on the impact of climate change and socioeconomic changes on European agriculture and its contribution to global food security. We present a Europe-wide analysis of the effect of selected climate and socioeconomic scenarios on food security in terms of food prices using the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact modelling system (CAPRI).

Handelsbeschränkungen; Exportkontrollen; Ernährungskrisenpolitik; Länder der ehemaligen Sowjetunion; Funktionsfähigkeit von Agrarmärkten; Effizienz von Wertschöpfungsketten für Nahrungsmittel; Preistransmission; Preisvolatilität; Wetterextreme; Globale Ernährungssicherheit

The future EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) requires coherence with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the international commitments in the fight against climate change. Next to ensuring stable food supply by supporting farmers and enhancing agricultural productivity, environmental sustainability is a core aspect of the proposed future CAP. At the same time, new policies must not compromise socio-economic development in low-income countries, especially in Africa, as stated in the European consensus on development. On the contrary, the extensification of agriculture in the EU may create trade opportunities for African countries. We apply a global agri-economic model to assess trade-related impacts of potential, environmentally motivated changes of CAP policies in the EU and Africa. Our findings suggest that EU production levels of meat would change with a stronger environmental focus of the CAP. These changes reduce the EU's share in agri-trade flows to Africa. However, food supply in Africa is not projected to deteriorate, as imports from other world regions and, to a limited extent, increasing domestic production can fill the gap. In how far potentials for domestic production growth can be used in African regions depends at least partly on their competitiveness vis-á-vis substituting importers. A sensitivity analysis on reduced transport costs shows that infrastructure investments could contribute to a stronger integration of Africa in international markets. On a global level, our analysis reveals the need to balance sustainability trade-offs in terms of avoiding leakage effects from EU agricultural production changes versus facilitating economic growth potentials in low- and middle-income countries.