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Cycling is cheaper, healthier and, in urban environments, often faster than other modes of transport . Nevertheless, many individuals do not cycle even for short distances . This publication aims to explain why commuters differ in their decisions as to whether or not to cycle. Results indicate that the individual (day-to-day) choice to commute by bicycle is affected by personal attitudes towards cycling to work, social norms, the work situation, weather conditions and trip characteristics. In addition, the book provides evidence that different groups of bicycle commuters exist: non-cyclists, part-time cyclists and full-time cyclists. The mode choice of individuals within these groups depends partly on a number of different factors. Non-cyclists seem not to cycle because they consider it impractical, either due to the distance involved, their need to transport goods, the need for a car during office hours or a negative subjective norm. The decision to cycle among part-time or full-time cyclists is also affected by these factors, but additional factors can be identified. Finally, the day-to-day choice to cycle is based on work characteristics, weather conditions and trip characteristics. Part-time cyclists who cycle only occasionally are encouraged by pleasant weather conditions, while frequent cyclists are found to be discouraged by more practical barriers, such as where they need to work on a particular day.

Governments aim to promote a shift from car to bicycle, but concerns about road safety seem to represent an important argument against this encouragement. This study examines the road safety impact of a modal shift from short car trips to cycling in Dutch municipalities. The road safety effect is estimated using Accident Prediction Models (APMs) that account for the non-linearity of risk. APMs are developed utilizing Negative Binomial regression. This study is the first to develop APMs using crash and mobility data from municipalities, and utilizing these models to estimate the effects of changing modal splits of current car and bicycle use to modal splits that actually exist in these municipalities. The results suggest that, under conditions such as in Dutch municipalities, transferring short trips made by cars to bicycles does not change the number of fatalities, but increases the number of serious road injuries. The neutral effect on fatalities, despite the high fatality risk for cyclists, can be explained by there being fewer cars on the road to pose a risk to others, the shorter length of bicycle trips compared to the car trips they replace, and the "safety in numbers" phenomenon. The rise in the number of serious road injuries is due wholly to the high number of cycling crashes with no other vehicle involved. The effect of a modal shift is dependent on the age of the population in which the shift is concentrated, and can be influenced by measures affecting cyclists' injury risk. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.