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Rival theoretical explanations of events and phenomena are common in economics, of which the Keynesian versus the monetarist debate is perhaps the best known. The traditional empirical procedure in economics has been to formulate a model from each theoretical framework and test each model's restrictions against observed data, rejecting or corroborating the specific model accordingly as the evidence is adverse or favourable. Although such an approach seems objective and scientific, it has two serious drawbacks: in practice neither rejection nor corroboration are definitive.

Chapter 1: Introduction -- Chapter 2: Key Concepts: A Series of Primers -- Chapter 3: Why is the World Always Changing? -- Chapter 4: Making Trends and Breaks Work for us -- Chapter 5: Indicator Saturation Methods -- Chapter 6: Combining Theory and Data -- Chapter 7: Seeing into the Future -- Chapter 8: Conclusions

Econometric Modeling provides a new and stimulating introduction to econometrics, focusing on modeling. The key issue confronting empirical economics is to establish sustainable relationships that are both supported by data and interpretable from economic theory. The unified likelihood-based approach of this book gives students the required statistical foundations of estimation and inference, and leads to a thorough understanding of econometric techniques. David Hendry and Bent Nielsen introduce modeling for a range of situations, including binary data sets, multiple regression, and cointe