Autor analizira promjene izborne participacije i izbornog ponašanja u parlamentarnim izborima 2015. i 2016. u Hrvatskoj, kada su podrška novim strankama i izborna apstinencija dosegnuli najvišu razinu od 1990. Polazi od pretpostavke da birači novih stranaka i izborni apstinenti imaju sličan odnos prema političkom sustavu i elitama, ali da ih razlikuje percepcija vlastite mogućnosti utjecaja na politiku. Istodobno, birači novih i starih stranka slični su prema percepciji vlastitih mogućnosti utjecaja na politiku, ali se razlikuju odnosom prema prevladavajućima političkim rascjepima, političkom sustavu i političkim elitama. Autor testira te pretpostavke koristeći rezultate anketnih istraživanja koja su provedena neposredno nakon izbora 2015. i 2016. Rezultati analize potvrđuju očekivanja o razlikama među biračima starih i novih stranaka te izbornih apstinenata. ; The author analyses changes in electoral behaviour and electoral participation which took place in the 2015. and 2016. parliamentary elections in Croatia. In these elections both support for new parties and electoral abstention simultaneously reached their highest level so far. The author starts from the assumption that electorates of new parties and abstainers are very similar in their evaluations of political system and political elites' performance, but that they differ in perception of their ability to influence politics through electoral participation. At the same time, voters of old and new parties are similar with respect to perception of their ability to influence politics, but they differ in their identification with predominant ideological cleavages, and their attitudes toward political system and political elites. The author tests these propositions using data from electoral surveys conducted after the 2015. and 2016. elections. Results of the analysis support principal expectations of the paper about differences between voters of old and new parties and electoral abstainers.
The article investigates the determinants of trust in institutions and satisfaction with democracy in Croatia. The article starts with the proposition that effective governance requires efficient accountability mechanisms, whereby political actors and institutions, as well as democracy performance, are evaluated on the basis of the outcomes they deliver to citizens. However, in highly polarised societies, evaluations of political institutions and regime performance are more likely to depend on how well these express the preferences and identities of citizens rather than on the governance outcomes they deliver. Thus, in strongly polarised societies, where politics is seen as a zero-sum game, evaluations of political institutions and democracy performance are likely to be dependent on partisan identification and political identity representation. Evaluations of the democratic regime and trust in institutions in Croatia as a highly polarised society are more likely to be shaped by partisan identification and representation than by the outcomes delivered. The article proceeds to test these propositions with survey data collected for the 2011, 2015, and 2016 elections. The article tests these propositions using multiple regression analysis testing the impact of partisanship in comparison with a range of other factors measuring political attitudes, political efficacy, economic evaluations, social trust, political knowledge, and socioeconomic position. The analysis finds that the impact of partisanship, and variables found to be related to partisanship, is strong and significant, both for political institutions, such as trust in parliament and government, and non-political institutions, such as trust in judiciary and public administration. Similar findings are also established for evaluations of democracy. The analysis also establishes that the impact of partisanship is more consistently significant than the impact of other variables, and that it is strongest for evaluations of democracy, followed by trust in government and parliament, and finally trust in public administration and the judiciary. ; U radu se istražuju determinante koje određuju vjeru u institucije i zadovoljstvo demokracijom u Hrvatskoj. Polazi se od pretpostavke da učinkovito upravljanje podrazumijeva učinkovite mehanizme odgvornosti putem kojih se političke aktere i institucije, kao i demokraciju u praksi, ocjenjuje na temelju rezultata koje isporučuju građanima. Ipak, u duboko je podijeljenim društvima veća vjerojatnost da će građani političke institucije i djelovanje političkog poretka ocijeniti ovisno o tome koliko oni uspješno odražavaju preferencije i identitet građana, a ne na temelju rezultata njihova upravljanja. U takvim duboko podijeljenim društvima koja politiku doživljavaju kao igru u kojoj jedna strana mora dobiti a druga izgubiti, vjerojatno je da će ocjene političkih institucija i demokratskog djelovanja ovisiti o poistovjećivanju građana s pojedinim političkim strankama i u kojoj mjeri one predstavljaju njihov politički identitet. Na ocjene demokratskog poretka te vjere u institucije u duboko podijeljenome hrvatskom društvu vjerojatnije će utjecati poistovjećivanje s političkim strankama nego rezultati upravljanja. U radu se provjerava utemeljenost navedenih pretpostavki na osnovi podataka o izborima 2011., 2015. i 2016. godine. Primjenom višestruke regresijske analize nastoji se utvrditi utjecaj političke pristranosti u usporedbi s brojnim drugim čimbenicima kojima se mjere politički stavovi, politička učinkovitost, ocjena ekonomske situacije, povjerenje u društvo, znanje o politici i društveno-ekonomski položaj. Rezultati analize upućuju na to da je utjecaj političke pristranosti, kao i varijabli koje su s njime povezane, snažan i statistički značajan i kada je riječ o povjerenju u političke institucije poput Sabora i Vlade i kada je riječ o povjerenju u institucije koje nisu političke, primjerice pravosudni sustav i javnu upravu. Rezultati su slični pri ocjenjivanju demokracije te se utvrđuje da utjecaj političke pristranosti ima dosljednije statističko značenje od utjecaja drugih varijabli. Također se utvrđuje da je utjecaj političke pristranosti najjači kod ocjenjivanja demokracije, potom kod povjerenja u Vladu i Sabor te konačno kod povjerenja u javnu upravu i pravosuđe.
Rad istražuje razloge nastanka obrasca asimetrične stranačke mobilizacije u hrvatskom stranačkom sustavu nakon 1990. godine i pokušava povezati kretanje stranačke potpore s obrascem veza između stranaka i birača. U članku se polazi od nalaza da je biračka potpora HDZ-u kroz čitavo razdoblje nakon prvih izbora bila prilično stabilna, dok je potpora birača stranaka ljevice i centra bila vrlo promjenjiva. Razlog tome autor nalazi u tipu veza između stranaka i birača koje se primarno temelje na simbolima i vrijednostima oblikovanim kroz više desetljeća. Oni imaju vrlo stabilan utjecaj i otežavaju promjene biračkih lojalnosti. Asimetrični se obrazac mobilizacije javlja zato što se birači HDZ-a identificiraju sa strankom na osnovi vrijednosti i simbola koje povezuju sa samom strankom, dok se birači stranaka ljevice i centra više identifi ciraju s vrijednostima koje ove stranke manje ili više uspješno zastupaju. Empirijska analiza faktora koji oblikuju odnos prema strankama potvrđuje da najveći utjecaj imaju odnos prema religiji, povijesti i tradicionalnim vrijednostima. Međutim, analiza isto tako pokazuje da se važnost ovih faktora s vremenom mijenja i ovisi o obrascima koalicija između stranaka odnosno o porukama stranačkog vodstva. ; The article analyses the reasons behind the establishment of the asymmetrical pattern of mobilization of party support in the Croatian party system after 1990. It aims to asses to what extent linkages between parties and voters aff ect the volatility of electoral support. The argument starts with an observation that electoral support for HDZ was very stable throughout the period after the 1990 elections, while the support for left and centre parties exhibited a high degree of volatility in each election since 1990. The article posits that the reasons behind this pattern of shifts in electoral support lies in the type of linkages between parties and voters based on symbols and values shaped over a longer period of time, which were mobilized in the party system in 1990s and established stable linkages between parties and voters, eff ectively preventing any transmission of support across party bloc lines. Reasons behind the formation of asymmetrical pattern of mobilization lie in the fact that HDZ voters identify with their party based on values and symbols linked with the party itself, while voters of left and centre parties identify more with values these parties represent, more or less eff ectively, than with the parties themselves. Empirical analysis of factors shaping party voter linkages fi nds that attitudes toward religion; history and traditional values are principal factors defi ning linkages between parties and voters. But at the same time, it appears that the character of these linkages is changing over time and that it depends on coalition patterns and shifts in messages of the party leadership.
The article examines the importance of economic issues as determinants of voting behavior in Croatia in the 2007 parliamentary elections. It seeks to establish whether there is an electoral division between winners and losers of transition in Croatia and whether the voters' positions on economic issues are mainly shaped by their political affiliation, rather than their position in the social structure. Drawing upon survey data from the 2007 elections, it is argued here that economic issues, notably the division between transitional winners and losers, do not play an important role in determining support for the two main political parties. The article also finds that the voters' opinion on economic issues salient in recent elections and the voters' evaluation of economic conditions are mostly structured by their affiliation to a particular political party. Finally, it concludes that economic issues are less relevant in structuring the voting behavior in Croatia than the ones related to culture and history, and that, unless a major realignment takes place, what voter's think about economic issues could be largely conditioned by what parties they support say. Adapted from the source document.
The article examines the importance of economic issues as determinants of voting behavior in Croatia in the 2007 parliamentary elections. It seeks to establish whether there is an electoral division between winners and losers of transition in Croatia and whether the voters' positions on economic issues are mainly shaped by their political affiliation, rather than their position in the social structure. Drawing upon survey data from the 2007 elections, it is argued here that economic issues, notably the division between transitional winners and losers, do not play an important role in determining support for the two main political parties. The article also finds that the voters' opinion on economic issues salient in recent elections and the voters' evaluation of economic conditions are mostly structured by their affiliation to a particular political party. Finally, it concludes that economic issues are less relevant in structuring the voting behavior in Croatia than the ones related to culture and history, and that, unless a major realignment takes place, what voter's think about economic issues could be largely conditioned by what parties they support say. Adapted from the source document.
Using the results of the poll on the eve of the 2003 parliamentary elections, the author analyzes the determinants of their ideological cleavages. The analysis shows that the most significant determinants are the attitudes concerning the role of tradition & the Catholic Church in the society, the role of women in the society, the attitude towards the minority groups & the attitude to the Croatian history, primarily regarding World War Two & the post-war period. Of all the attitudes-measuring variables the most significant ones for the ideological left-right self-identification are those concerning the role of the Church & tradition & the attitude towards the history. The most important determinants of concrete ideological orientations in Croatia are those variables that measure the attitudes to traditional values & the role of the Church in the society, the attitude to the minorities & the position of women & the attitude to the history. While the attitudes to tradition & the role of the Catholic Church, & to a somewhat smaller extent to the minorities & the position of women in the society distinguish the liberals & social-democrats from the Christian-democrats, the attitude to the history distinguishes primarily the liberals from the social-democrats. The analysis has also shown that the variables measuring the attitude to the parties undoubtedly have the biggest influence on ideological self-identification, whether this is the left-right self-identification, or the identification with a concrete ideological orientation. However, in interpreting these results one should bear in mind that the causal link among these variables can be established both ways. Nevertheless, regarding the level of political sophistication of the public it might be said that the respondents will more easily identify with a party than an ideology, which for most voters is an abstract category. Party identification (preference) may be a consequence of a variety of factors ranging from the early political socialization in the family to the ideological affinity concerning certain issues or trust in party leadership etc. Hence we can conclude that regarding their ideological self-identification the respondents use their party identification as an information shortcut in order to get their bearing in, for most voters, the abstract world of ideologies. Tables, Graphs, Appendixes, References. Adapted from the source document.
