Suchergebnisse

Die Variabilität von Wind- und Solarenergie hat signifikanten Einfluss auf Stromsysteme und Elektrizitätsmärkte, sobald diese Technologien in signifikantem Maßstab Anwendung finden. Im weltweiten Durchschnitt erzeugen solche "variablen Erneuerbaren" heute zwar nur 2.5% der elektrischen Energie, aber alle Prognosen weisen auf eine zunehmende Bedeutung hin - und eine Reihe von Ländern erreicht schon heute Wind- und Solaranteile von 20% oder mehr. Diese Doktorarbeit trägt zu System- und Marktintegrations-Literatur bei, die die Effekte der Variabilität untersucht. Welchen Einfluss hat die Variabilität von Wind- und Solarenergie auf die Wirtschaftlichkeit dieser Technologien? Der Einfluss lässt sich in (mindestens) drei Perspektiven darstellen: als Reduktion des ökonomischen Wertes (Grenznutzen) von Windstrom, als Anstieg der Erzeugungskosten, und als Reduktion des wohlfahrts-optimalen Ausbaus. Zwischen diesen drei alternativen Perspektiven zu übersetzen ist nicht trivial, wie die Unklarheiten und Missverständnisse um das Konzept von "Integrationskosten" belegen. Deshalb die Forschungsfrage, noch einmal, präzisiert: Wie beeinflusst die Variabilität von Wind- und Solarenergie den Wert, die optimale Menge, und die Integrationskosten dieser Technologien? Diese Studie besteht aus sechs eigenständigen Artikeln. Zwei davon entwickeln einen ökonomischen Analyserahmen, in dessen Zentrum die spezifischen Eigenschaften des Gutes Strom sowie die spezifischen Eigenschaften von Wind- und Solarenergie als Stromerzeuger stehen. Im Anschluss untersuchen drei Artikel quantitative Fragen und schätzen den Wert und den optimalen Ausbau von variablen Erneuerbaren. Diese Artikel basieren auf dem dafür entwickelten numerischen Strommarktmodell EMMA, auf einer ökonometrischen Auswertung empirischer Marktdaten, sowie einer quantitativen Metastudie der publizierten Literatur. Der letzte Artikel befasst sich mit Fragen des Marktdesigns. Die zentralen Ergebnisse lassen sich wie folgt zusammenfassen. Strom ist ein spezielles ökonomisches Gut, das gleichzeitig perfekt homogen und heterogen ist. Strom ist entlang dreier Dimensionen heterogen: Zeit, Raum, und Vorlaufzeit. Diese Heterogenität ergibt sich aus der Physik von Elektrizität, insbesondere ihrer Nicht-Speicherbarkeit. Als unmittelbare Konsequenz beeinflusst die Variabilität von Wind und Solar deren Wirtschaftlichkeit. Beispielsweise ist der Wert von Windstrom bei einem Wind-Marktanteil von 30% etwa 30-50% geringer als der Wert von Strom aus einer konstanten Quelle. Diese Wertminderung ist vor allem darauf zurückzuführen, dass in einem Stromsystem mit hohem Windanteil kapitalintensive thermische Kraftwerke schlechter ausglastet sind. Der Einfluss von Variabilität lässt sich nicht nur in Wertverlust ausdrücken, sondern als Kostenanstieg, oder als Einfluss auf die optimale Menge. Der genannte Wertverlust entspricht einem Kostenanstieg von 30-50% oder einer Reduktion des optimalen Windanteils um zwei Drittel. Daraus lassen sich sieben politik-relevante Schlussfolgerungen ableiten: 1. Windkraft wird eine signifikante Rolle im zukünftigen Strommix spielen (im Vergleich zu heute). 2. Gleichzeitig wird ihre Rolle begrenzt sein (im Vergleich zu einigen politischen Ambitionen). 3. Es gibt eine Reihe von effektiven Maßnahmen, um Windkraft in Stromsysteme zu integrieren, wie Investitionen in Übertragungsnetze, Flexibilisierung von thermischen Erzeugern, und neuem Turbinendesign. Stromspeicher spielen dagegen eine untergeordnete Rolle (sind allerdings für Solarenergie relevanter). 4. Um diese Änderungen anzureizen, müssen effiziente Preissignale vorhanden sein. 5. Der Ausbau der Erneuerbaren sollte in einer angemessenen Geschwindigkeit erfolgen. 6. Variable Erneuerbare sind keine guten Komplementärtechnologien zu Kernkraft oder CCS - diese Technologien sind zu kapitalintensiv. 7. Der Ausbau der Erneuerbaren ist nicht nur eine Frage von Effizienz, sondern auch von Umverteilung. Umverteilungseffekte können quantitativ bedeutsam sein und sind möglicherweise ein zentraler politischer Treiber. ; Variable renewable energy sources (VRE) for electricity generation, such as wind and solar power, are subject to inherent output fluctuations. This variability has significant impacts on power system and electricity markets if VRE are deployed at large scale. While on global average, wind and solar power currently supply only a minor share of electricity, they are expected to play a much larger role in the future - such that variability will become a major issue (which it already is in some regions). This thesis contributes to the literature that assesses these impacts the "system and market integration" literature. This thesis aims at answering the question: What is the impact of wind and solar power variability on the economics of these technologies? It will be laid out that the impact can be expressed in (at least) three ways: as reduction of value, as increase of cost, or as decrease of optimal deployment. Translating between these perspectives is not trivial, as evidenced by the confusion around the concept of "integration costs". Hence, more specifically: How does variability impact the marginal economic value of these power sources, their optimal deployment, and their integration costs? This is the question that this thesis addresses. This study comprises six papers, of which two develop a valuation framework that accounts for the specific characteristics of the good electricity, and the specific properties of wind and solar power versus "dispatchable" power plants. Three articles then assess quantitative questions and estimate marginal value, optimal deployment, and integration costs. These estimates stem from a newly developed numerical power market model, EMMA, market data, and quantitative literature reviews. The final paper addresses market design. In short, the principal findings of this thesis are as follows. Electricity is a peculiar economic good, being at the same time perfectly homogenous and heterogeneous along three dimensions - time, space, and lead-time. Electricity's heterogeneity is rooted in its physics, notably the fact it cannot be stored. (Only) because of heterogeneity, the economics of wind and solar power are affected by their variability. The impact of variability, expressed in terms of marginal value, can be quite significant: for example, at 30% wind market share, electricity from wind power is worth 30-50% less than electricity from a constant source, as this study estimates. This value drop stems mainly from the fact that the capital embodied in thermal plants is utilized less in power systems with high VRE shares. Any welfare analysis of VRE needs to take electricity's heterogeneity into account. The impact of variability on VRE cannot only be expressed in terms of marginal value, but also in terms of costs, or in terms of optimal deployment. The mentioned value drop corresponds to an increase of costs by 30-50%, or a reduction of the optimal share by two thirds. These findings lead to seven policy conclusions: 1. Wind power will play a significant role (compared to today). 2. Wind power will play a limited role (compared to some political ambitions). 3. There are many effective options to integrate wind power into power systems, including transmission investments, flexibilizing thermal generators, and advancing wind turbine design. Electricity storage, in contrast, plays a limited role (however, it can play a larger role for integrating solar). 4. For these integration measures to materialize, it is important to get both prices and policies right. Prices need to reflect marginal costs, entry barriers should be tiered down, and policy must not shield agents from incentives. 5. VRE capacity should be brought to the system at a moderate pace. 6. VRE do not go well together with nuclear power or carbon capture and storage - these technologies are too capital intensive. 7. Large-scale VRE deployment is not only an efficiency issue, but has also distributional consequences. Re-distribution can be large and might an important policy driver.

In recent years, power flows in many European transmission and distribution networks have increased, making the management of network congestion a much-debated – and increasing politicized – topic. This paper is an introduction to and a review of congestion management in European electricity grids. We review the physical measures available to avoid congestion, using a newly introduced analytical framework. Also, we provide a com-prehensive review of regulatory instruments used and proposed to incentivize those measures. Finally, we provide a description of the implementation of three prominent instruments, including so-called redispatch.

Applied power system research is data intensive, often requiring hour-by-hour data on electricity consumption and generation as well as detailed information about technical and cost parameters of power stations. The European Union obliges firms to publish much of this information on a common website, the "ENTSO-E Transparency Platform" operated by the association of transmission system operators. It is possibly the most ambitious platform for power system data globally. However, anecdotal evidence from users indicates significant shortcomings regarding data quality and usability. This paper provides an introduction to and an assessment of the Transparency Platform, helping researchers to use it more efficiently and to judge data quality more rigorously.

Europe is in the midst of the most severe energy crisis in a generation, at the core of which is the continuously plummeting supply of Russian natural gas. With alternative supply options being limited, natural gas prices have surged. This paper empirically estimates the response of natural gas demand to the price increase, using data from Germany—the so far largest consumer of Russian natural gas. We identify the crisis response of small and large consumers separately, controlling for temperature, gas-fired power generation, and economic activity. For small consumers, including mostly households, we find a substantial demand reduction of 6% from March onwards—most likely due to political and ethical considerations after the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. For industrial consumers, demand reductions started much earlier in August 2021, when wholesale prices for natural gas started to surge, with an average reduction of 11%. We conclude that voluntary industrial demand response has played a significant role in coping with the energy crisis so far.

European Union competition law, intended to thwart subsidies paid out by national governments, plays an important role in shaping EU Member States' support schemes for renewable energy. The Environmental and Energy State Aid Guidelines 2014–2020, which formalize the European Commission's take on subsidies in the electricity sector, prescribe technology-neutral auctions as the standard mechanism to determine support levels. In this study, we have assessed the formal decisions of the Commission with respect to technology-neutrality between July 2014 and May 2018. It turns out that 16 out of 18 schemes are not technology-neutral and figure high degrees of technology-differentiation. We have also studied the exemption clauses invoked to justify technology-discrimination, finding that the most ambiguous clause is used most frequently, and that the application and level of scrutiny varies strongly from case to case. The State Aid Guidelines are meant to increase transparency and legal certainty. We find that with respect to technology-neutral auctions for renewable energy, the Guidelines fail to deliver on their purpose.

AbstractNumerical optimization models are used to develop scenarios of the future energy system. Usually, they optimize the energy mix subject to engineering costs such as equipment and fuel. For onshore wind energy, some of these models use cost-potential curves that indicate how much electricity can be generated at what cost. These curves are upward sloping mainly because windy sites are occupied first and further expanding wind energy means deploying less favorable resources. Meanwhile, real-world wind energy expansion is curbed by local resistance, regulatory constraints, and legal challenges. This presumably reflects the perceived adverse effect that onshore wind energy has on the local human population, as well as other negative external effects. These disamenity costs are at the core of this paper. We provide a comprehensive and consistent set of cost-potential curves of wind energy for all European countries that include disamenity costs, and which can be used in energy system modeling. We combine existing valuation of disamenity costs from the literature that describe the costs as a function of the distance between turbine and households with gridded population data, granular geospatial data of wind speeds, and additional land-use constraints to calculate such curves. We find that disamenity costs are not a game changer: for most countries and assumptions, the marginal levelized cost of onshore wind energy increase by 0.2–12.5 €/MWh.