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This paper examines the effects of market deregulation on consumers and state commercial banks in China, a large developing country. I jointly estimate a system of differentiated product demand and pricing equations under alternative market structures. While China's banking reforms overall have achieved mixed results, the consumer surplus of the deposit market has increased. The welfare effects from reforms are unevenly distributed, with losses skewed toward inland provinces and certain consumer groups. There is no clear evidence that the pricing of banking services has become more competitive after the reform, and such pricing remains subject to government intervention. Encouragingly, the price-cost margins of some state commercial banks have fallen over time.

AbstractThis paper qualitatively and quantitatively examines the development of the sovereign debt market in Prewar China under different governments. During the Beijing Era (1912–26), accompanied by the establishment of necessary financial institutions, the sovereign debt market emerged to meet fiscal needs. Surprisingly, the Nationalist government, in power from 1927, successfully cultivated a robust market characterized by its expanding size and liquidity. Setting itself apart from its predecessors, the government established credibility as a borrower in two key ways. Firstly, it demonstrated unwavering commitment to debt service by settling previous debts and offering well‐structured new ones, even during challenging times. Furthermore, the government escrowed fiscal revenue, pledged for debt repayments, to a semi‐independent committee of private bankers on behalf of debtholders, enhancing public confidence. Secondly, the government showcased its ability to secure tax revenues for debt repayments. However, starting from 1931/2, the debt market experienced a decline due to the government's compromised ability to pay resulting from external wars and shifting political priorities that weakened its commitment to debt repayments. Empirical evidence confirms the market's responsiveness to regime shifts and policy changes. This paper sheds light on how a nascent autocratic government can successfully borrow from the public.

This article provides a quantitative assessment of contemporary beliefs about historical events by econometrically identifying 'break points' in China's domestic bond market from 1921 to 1942. We find that these 'break points' usually coincided with the events highlighted by the Shanghai Newspaper—an influential daily newspaper produced during the time of the Republic of China. These events are also generally considered to be crucial by historians—for example, the Japanese invasion of Manchuria and the outbreak of the Second Sino‐Japanese War. However, some events to which historians attach great importance, such as the conflicts between Nationalists and Communists in the 1930s, were not reflected in the bond market and did not attract much media attention. Some events, such as the Sino‐Japanese ceasefire in Tanggu in 1933, were thought to be crucial by contemporaries, but have been downplayed by later observers.

AbstractBaumol's model of unbalanced growth implies that health care expenditure (HCE) is driven by wage increases in excess of productivity growth. However, it remains unclear whether the HCE in developing countries is affected by the same factor. This paper tests this hypothesis by using China provincial panel data. We show that HCE grows more rapidly if economy‐wide wage growth exceeds productivity growth in China. The results are robust to the use of housing price as an instrumental variable for the economy‐wide nominal wage and the inclusion of real GDP growth, demographic structure, government deficit, pollution emissions and health sector quality as control variables. Furthermore, our findings show that Baumol's cost disease plays a more important role in the less economically developed western regions in which the rural–urban migration is less pronounced.

This paper examines the sustainability of the currency board arrangements in Argentina and Hong Kong. We employ a Markov switching model with two regimes to infer the exchange rate pressure due to economic fundamentals and market expectations. The empirical results suggest that economic fundamentals and expectations are key determinants of a currency board's sustainability. We also show that the government's credibility played a more important role in Argentina than in Hong Kong. The trade surplus, real exchange rate and inflation rate were more important drivers of the sustainability of the Hong Kong currency board.

This paper examines the sustainability of the currency board arrangements in Argentina and Hong Kong. We employ a Markov switching model with two regimes to infer the exchange rate pressure due to economic fundamentals and market expectations. The empirical results suggest that economic fundamentals and expectations are key determinants of a currency board's sustainability. We also show that the government's credibility played a more important role in Argentina than in Hong Kong. The trade surplus, real exchange rate and inflation rate were more important drivers of the sustainability of the Hong Kong currency board.