Suchergebnisse

Why is it that the achievements of some disinflations from low and moderate peaks are long‐lived, whereas in others the gains in the inflationary front dissipate quickly? Based on an index of the sustainability of disinflations, various competing explanations of what determines sustainability are tested. Three factors, potentially at the top of the list of many researchers, are shown to be insignificant: oil shocks, fiscal policy, and inflation targeting. Nevertheless, other important features such as the exchange rate regime, achieving low inflation rates during the disinflation, and food price shocks are shown to be important variables driving the sustainability records. (JEL E31, E32, E52, E58, F41)

Este artículo presenta un novedoso conjunto de datos mensuales acerca de vacantes en Bogotá entre 1960 y 2010. El conjunto de datos se construyó mediante el conteo del número de anuncios de ofertas de empleo publicados en el periódico más importante de circulación nacional: El Tiempo. Describimos la metodología empleada para construir la base de datos, analizamos los posibles problemas asociados con ella y proponemos maneras de resolverlos. Este artículo también presenta una estimación de la tasa de vacantes. Trazamos una curva de Beveridge y utilizamos la tasa de vacantes para pronosticar el desempleo. Este primer vistazo a la serie arroja resultados congruentes, a la vez que deja un sinnúmero de preguntas abiertas para investigaciones futuras

Government intervention in the construction sector as a way to boost the economy has been a constant in Colombia for the past 90 years. This paper explicitly tests the impact of the most recent of such interventions: a subsidy to the mortgage interest rate. The results show that the subsidy boosted mortgage loans by around 38 percent. However, it is also found that real interest rates went up by 1. 09 percent, i. e. , there has been an incomplete pass-through of the subsidy to the consumer. The pass-through of this instance of intervention is estimated to be in the range of 65 percent to 74 percent.

This study constructs a new data set on unemployment rates in Latin America and the Caribbean and then explores the determinants of unemployment. We compare different countries, finding that unemployment is influenced by the size of the rural population and that the effects of government regulations are generally weak. We also examine large, persistent increases in unemployment over time, finding that they are caused by contractions in aggregate demand. These demand contractions result from either disinflationary monetary policy or the defense of an exchange-rate peg in the face of capital flight. Our evidence supports hysteresis theories in which short-run changes in unemployment influence the natural rate.