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We tune in on fear to make it visible and detect its drifts. We collect verbal signals of coming fear burrowed in the crackles of political and other speeches by leading figures: Familiar words people use to express fear. From the EmoLex database (Mohammad and Turney in Comput Intel 29(3):436–465, 2013), we develop a computer-readable "Fear Index" to chase fear in the West. We aim a view from above to see how fear has changed, or hasn't. We first look how valid is the "Fear Index" on texts (fearful novels and historical documents) expected to display specific profiles of fear. Then trace the trend fear follows in speeches of European leaders. The "Fear Index" decreases in the speeches and documents of European political and economic spheres (President Donald Tusk—European Council—, President Mario Draghi—European Central Bank—, and the Global Trade Alert agency). The "Fear Index" spirals upwards among humanitarian leaders (Pope Francis, the Archbishop Justin Welby, and the International Committee of the Red Cross). We record no significant change in the trend of the "Fear Index" in the speeches of President Vladimir Putin. Humanitarian and political leaders changing in counterpoint prompt questions about empathy, or lack of that, in a now bipolar West.

We tune in on fear to make it visible and detect its drifts. We collect verbal signals of coming fear burrowed in the crackles of political and other speeches by leading figures: Familiar words people use to express fear. From the EmoLex database (Mohammad and Turney in Comput Intel 29(3):436–465, 2013), we develop a computer-readable "Fear Index" to chase fear in the West. We aim a view from above to see how fear has changed, or hasn't. We first look how valid is the "Fear Index" on texts (fearful novels and historical documents) expected to display specific profiles of fear. Then trace the trend fear follows in speeches of European leaders. The "Fear Index" decreases in the speeches and documents of European political and economic spheres (President Donald Tusk—European Council—, President Mario Draghi—European Central Bank—, and the Global Trade Alert agency). The "Fear Index" spirals upwards among humanitarian leaders (Pope Francis, the Archbishop Justin Welby, and the International Committee of the Red Cross). We record no significant change in the trend of the "Fear Index" in the speeches of President Vladimir Putin. Humanitarian and political leaders changing in counterpoint prompt questions about empathy, or lack of that, in a now bipolar West.

McClelland (1975) argued that reform movements have the unintended result of creating an action orientation that makes war possible. The use of one's own accumulated power to save the others is often the link between an imperial motivation pattern (i.e., the gap created between a high need for power & a low need for affiliation) & later wars. Conflict-related documents, real & fictional, were analyzed with the help of the new Motive Dictionary, a computer-readable thesaurus devised to detect the power & affiliation motives in texts supposed to contain them. Results confirm McClelland's theory. An increasing gap between affiliation & power words consistently precedes the outbreak of wars including World War I & the war in Iraq (2003- ). Tables, Figures, References. Adapted from the source document.