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In 'Altered States', Thomas Holbrook looks at electoral change in presidential elections since 1972, documenting the magnitude, direction and consequences of changes in party support in the states. He finds that the Democrats do not have a 'lock' on the Electoral College, but that their position has improved dramatically over the past forty years in a number of formerly competitive or Republican-leaning states in the Northeast, Southeast, and Southwest

A thorough examination of the impact of campaign politics on presidential elections in the United States is presented in this book. Using actual election results and empirical evidence, the author also incorporates data on additional factors such as media coverage, the impact of nominating conventions on public opinion, presidential debates, and other events such as staff shake-ups, endorsements and scandals. In so doing, Holbrook develops a model for testing campaigns and proves how campaigns play a key role in shaping public opinion and, ultimately, influencing outcomes

Combining actual election results and empirical evidence with data on additional factors such as media coverage, Thomas M. Holbrook develops a model for testing campaigns, and proves how campaigns play a key role in shaping public opinion.

The Incumbency and National Conditions (presidential approval and aggregated personal finances) Model predicted President Obama would garner 47.9% of the two-party vote, whereas he ended up with 51.8% (based on available information on December 3, 2012). The error in this forecast (3.9 points) is somewhat higher than the average out-of-sample error from 1952 to 2008 (2.4 points). Although the forecast was off the mark, the addition of the 2012 result to the data set does little to change the slope estimates, and the overall fit of the model is only slightly worse (table 1).