Forecasting football match results using a player rating based model
In: International journal of forecasting, Band 40, Heft 1, S. 302-312
ISSN: 0169-2070
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In: International journal of forecasting, Band 40, Heft 1, S. 302-312
ISSN: 0169-2070
In: International journal of forecasting, Band 39, Heft 2, S. 623-640
ISSN: 0169-2070
In: Qualitative report: an online journal dedicated to qualitative research and critical inquiry
ISSN: 1052-0147
Road traffic crashes and sequelae are reaching pandemic proportions globally and have currently achieved disproportionately high levels in Nigeria. Quantitative studies are accumulating in the peer-reviewed literature, but there is a paucity of qualitative research in Nigeria. Data for this study of structural and behavioral factors of road traffic crashes and injuries in Federal Capital Territory were collected in semi-structured interviews with crash survivors at National Hospital Abuja. Interviews were analyzed via qualitative content analysis, revealing crash location and participant beliefs about crash etiologies. Units of analysis were developed from participant statements and were structured within four a priori etiologic categories using Haddon's (1980) matrix: human-, vehicle-, physical environment-, and socioeconomic environment-related. Subcategories were generated. Human-related subcategories included reckless behavior and drivers, limited technical knowledge and skill. Vehicle-related subcategories included vehicular disrepair and lack of safety equipment. Physical environment-related subcategories included road disrepair, infrastructural inadequacy, and weather. Socioeconomic environment-related subcategories included government, prehospital care, money, and prayer. Subcategories were organized temporally by pre-event, event, and post-event phases, with most units of analysis allocated in the pre-event phase. These qualitative results can be utilized to guide future research along community-aligned priorities, and to structure community-engaged preventative and interventional efforts.
In: Wildlife research, Band 42, Heft 8, S. 668
ISSN: 1448-5494, 1035-3712
Context Range contractions are often the first indicator that a species is in decline. However, natural population fluctuations, characteristic of many Australian rodents, make differentiating between natural lows and unsustainable declines challenging. The endangered smoky mouse (Pseudomys fumeus) is a prime example. Surveys have failed to detect the species across much of its range over the past decade, but P. fumeus is known to experience fluctuations in abundance and periods of low detectability. Aims We compared past and current distributions of P. fumeus in the Victoria Range, Grampians–Gariwerd National Park (Victoria, Australia), to assess long-term population persistence over 40 years and short-term population persistence following a high-severity fire. Methods To evaluate the efficacy of surveys in detecting P. fumeus, we conducted analyses to explicitly model detectability using historical (1974, 2002) and modern (2013) survey data. We also tested the short-term impacts of fire on the presence of P. fumeus by surveying burned and unburned sites 3 months prior to, and 7 to 21 months following, a severe wildfire. Key results Our surveys detected P. fumeus at five new sites, confirmed presence at one historical site, and absence from two historical sites. The species persisted in situ through fire, and for at least 21 months following. We detected resident populations in burned and unburned wet drainage systems. Conclusions Despite periods of low density in which the species was undetected, P. fumeus persisted in an 8 km radius area of the eastern escarpment of Victoria Range of the Grampians–Gariwerd National Park for at least four decades through droughts, the presence of invasive predators, and the short-term impacts of wildfire. Implications Although P. fumeus persisted through a severe fire, factors influencing survival must be assessed before generalisations are made about the impacts of wildfire on the species. Management of P. fumeus should recognise that the species survives and breeds in wet drainage systems. Regular resurveys incorporating statistical estimates of detectability are necessary to identify and track distributional changes of threatened species, like P. fumeus, particularly in the context of natural, sustainable fluctuations.
Road traffic crashes and sequelae are reaching pandemic proportions globally and have currently achieved disproportionately high levels in Nigeria. Quantitative studies are accumulating in the peer-reviewed literature, but there is a paucity of qualitative research in Nigeria. Data for this study of structural and behavioral factors of road traffic crashes and injuries in Federal Capital Territory were collected in semi-structured interviews with crash survivors at National Hospital Abuja. Interviews were analyzed via qualitative content analysis, revealing crash location and participant beliefs about crash etiologies. Units of analysis were developed from participant statements and were structured within four a priori etiologic categories using Haddon's (1980) matrix: human-, vehicle-, physical environment-, and socioeconomic environment-related. Subcategories were generated. Human-related subcategories included reckless behavior and drivers, limited technical knowledge and skill. Vehicle-related subcategories included vehicular disrepair and lack of safety equipment. Physical environment-related subcategories included road disrepair, infrastructural inadequacy, and weather. Socioeconomic environment-related subcategories included government, prehospital care, money, and prayer. Subcategories were organized temporally by pre-event, event, and post-event phases, with most units of analysis allocated in the pre-event phase. These qualitative results can be utilized to guide future research along community-aligned priorities, and to structure community-engaged preventative and interventional efforts.
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Road traffic crashes and sequelae are reaching pandemic proportions globally and have currently achieved disproportionately high levels in Nigeria. Quantitative studies are accumulating in the peer-reviewed literature, but there is a paucity of qualitative research in Nigeria. Data for this study of structural and behavioral factors of road traffic crashes and injuries in Federal Capital Territory were collected in semi-structured interviews with crash survivors at National Hospital Abuja. Interviews were analyzed via qualitative content analysis, revealing crash location and participant beliefs about crash etiologies. Units of analysis were developed from participant statements and were structured within four a priori etiologic categories using Haddon's (1980) matrix: human-, vehicle-, physical environment-, and socioeconomic environment-related. Subcategories were generated. Human-related subcategories included reckless behavior and drivers, limited technical knowledge and skill. Vehicle-related subcategories included vehicular disrepair and lack of safety equipment. Physical environment-related subcategories included road disrepair, infrastructural inadequacy, and weather. Socioeconomic environment-related subcategories included government, prehospital care, money, and prayer. Subcategories were organized temporally by pre-event, event, and post-event phases, with most units of analysis allocated in the preevent phase. These qualitative results can be utilized to guide future research along community-aligned priorities, and to structure community-engaged preventative and interventional efforts.
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