Suchergebnisse

[Einleitung] Das Nord Stream 2 (NS2) Projekt besteht aus zwei Pipeline-Strängen à ca. 27,5 Milliarden Kubikmeter jährliche Durchleitungskapazität, die zusätzlich zu den bestehenden zwei Pipeline- Strängen gleicher Kapazität des Nord Stream Projekts Erdgas aus Russland durch die Ostsee nach Deutschland transportieren sollen (Abbildung 1). Die Fertigstellung des Nord Stream 2 Projekts hat sich im Jahr 2020 gegenüber der ursprünglichen Planung verschoben, insbesondere aufgrund von transatlantischen Spannungen und US-Sanktionen gegenüber am Bau beteiligten Parteien. Dieses Kurzgutachten nimmt aus energiewirtschaftlicher und klimapolitischer Sicht Stellung zur Frage, ob angesichts der entstandenen Verzögerung nunmehr eine raschere Fertigstellung des NS2-Projekts notwendig ist. Dazu wird zum einen untersucht, ob es kurzfristig in Deutschland und Europa eine "Deckungslücke" in der Versorgung mit Erdgas gibt, die durch das NS2- Projekt gedeckt werden könnte. Zum anderen werden aktuelle Erwartungen für die langfristige Bedarfs- und Angebotsentwicklung sowohl mit Erdgas als auch mit Gasen allgemein dokumentiert. ; Gutachten im Auftrag des Naturschutzbund Deutschland e.V. (NABU).

Coal consumption and production have sharply declined in recent years in the U.S., despite political support. Reasons are mostly unfavorable economic conditions for coal, including competition from natural gas and renewables in the power sector, as well as an aging coal-fired power plant fleet. Nevertheless, coal remains a major energy source in the North American energy markets. Supplementing EMF34 energy system analyses, we take a sectoral perspective to analyze coal's future role in this context. The U.S. Energy Information Administration as well as most models in EMF34 depict continuously high shares of coal-fired power generation over the next decades in their current policy scenarios. We contrast their results with coal sector modelling based on bottom-up data and recent market trends. We project considerably lower near-term coal use for power generation in the U.S. This has significant effects on regional coal production. Allowing new export terminals along the U.S. West Coast could ease cuts in U.S. production. Yet, exports are a highly uncertain strategy because the U.S. could be strongly affected by changes in global demand, for example from non-U.S. climate policy.

Der Anfang Juli 2020 vom Bundestag beschlossene Kohleausstieg könnte eine größere Rolle für Erdgas im deutschen Energiesystem bedeuten. Doch tatsächlich ist Erdgas nicht klimafreundlicher als Kohle. Vor allem aber droht Europa bei den Erdgasimporten zum Spielfeld des Konflikts zwischen Russland und den USA zu werden. Eine Spirale aus Sanktionen und Gegensanktionen hat sich rund um den Bau der Ostseepipeline Nordstream 2 in Gang gesetzt. Die USA machen mit Flüssiggas den russischen Erdgaslieferungen in Europa Konkurrenz. Während die deutsche und die europäische Politik nunmehr angemessene Reaktionen auf die sich zuspitzende US-Sanktionspolitik diskutieren, stellt sich die Frage, welche Rolle US-Flüssiggas überhaupt im europäischen Erdgasmarkt spielen kann. Modellrechnungen des DIW Berlin liefern darauf erste Antworten. Darüber hinaus muss die Debatte um die kurzfristige Versorgung mit Erdgasimporten in den langfristigen Zusammenhang der Energiewende eingebettet werden, die mit einem Ausstieg aus fossilem Erdgas in den nächsten Jahrzehnten wird einhergehen müssen.

Coal consumption and production have sharply declined in recent years in the U.S., despite political support. Reasons are mostly unfavorable economic conditions for coal, including competition from natural gas and renewables in the power sector, as well as an aging coal-fired power plant fleet. Nevertheless, coal remains a major energy source in the North American energy markets. Supplementing EMF34 energy system analyses, we take a sectoral perspective to analyze coal's future role in this context. The U.S. Energy Information Administration as well as most models in EMF34 depict continuously high shares of coal-fired power generation over the next decades in their current policy scenarios. We contrast their results with coal sector modelling based on bottom-up data and recent market trends. We project considerably lower near-term coal use for power generation in the U.S. This has significant effects on regional coal production. Allowing new export terminals along the U.S. West Coast could ease cuts in U.S. production. Yet, exports are a highly uncertain strategy because the U.S. could be strongly affected by changes in global demand, for example from non-U.S. climate policy. ; publishedVersion ; 0301-4215/© 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)

Coal consumption and production have sharply declined in recent years in the U.S., despite political support. Reasons are mostly unfavorable economic conditions for coal, including competition from natural gas and renewables in the power sector, as well as an aging coal- fired power plant fleet. The U.S. Energy Information Administration as well as most models of North American energy markets depict continuously high shares of coal-fired power generation over the next decades in their current policies scenarios. We contrast their results with coal sector modelling based on bottom-up data and recent market trends. We project considerably lower near-term coal use for power generation in the U.S. This has significant effects on coal production and mining employment. Allowing new export terminals along the U.S. West Coast could ease cuts in U.S. production. Yet, exports are a highly uncertain strategy because the U.S. could be strongly affected by changes in global demand, for example from non-U.S. climate policy. Furthermore, coal production within the U.S. is likely to experience regional shifts, affecting location and number of mining jobs.

Natural gas could play an increasing role in the German energy system following the coal exit decided in July 2020 by the German parliament. However, natural gas has no climate benefit compared to coal. What is more, Europe risks to become a battle-ground for the conflict between Russia and the United States. The construction of the Baltic Sea pipeline Nordstream 2 has set in motion a downward spiral of sanctions and counter-sanctions. US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports compete with Russian gas exports to Europe. While German and European policy makers debate about an appropriate reaction to the US sanctions, we ask which role will US LNG be able to play in the European natural gas market. Model results by DIW Berlin pro-vide first answers. In the long run, however, the European climate policy commitments will lead to a phase-out of fossil natural gas in the wake of the energy transition in the next decades.

This study presents a set of novel and multidisciplinary scenarios ('narratives') that provide insight into four distinct and diverging yet plausible worlds. They combine qualitative and quantitative elements in order to reflect the interlinked and complex nature of energy and climate. We use the STEMPLE+ framework to include social, technological, economic, military (security), political, environmental, and cultural (+) dimensions in our narratives. We present the construction of the narratives, which started with the generation of qualitative scenario storylines using foresight analysis techniques, including a facilitated expert workshop. We then calibrated the numerical energy and resource market model Multimod to reflect the different storylines. Finally, we combined and refined the storylines and numerical model results into holistic narratives. The study generates insights into the key assumptions and drivers of different pathways of (more or less successful) climate change mitigation. Moreover, a set of transparent and discriminatory indicators serves to identify which paths the world might take. They include quantitative results, e.g. emissions, energy consumption and electricity mix, as well as developments in the political or social sphere. Lessons learnt include the dangers of increased isolationism and the importance of integrating economic and energy-related objectives, as well as the significant role of civil society. However, we also show that the development of renewables and electrification are inappropriate indicators for a successful energy transition, as these trends are also consistent with emission-intensive scenarios.

This study presents a set of novel and multidisciplinary scenarios ('narratives') that provide insight into four distinct and diverging yet plausible worlds. They combine qualitative and quantitative elements in order to reflect the interlinked and complex nature of energy and climate. We use the STEMPLE+ framework to include social, technological, economic, military (security), political, environmental, and cultural (+) dimensions in our narratives. We present the construction of the narratives, which started with the generation of qualitative scenario storylines using foresight analysis techniques, including a facilitated expert workshop. We then calibrated the numerical energy and resource market model Multimod to reflect the different storylines. Finally, we combined and refined the storylines and numerical model results into holistic narratives. The study generates insights into the key assumptions and drivers of different pathways of (more or less successful) climate change mitigation. Moreover, a set of transparent and discriminatory indicators serves to identify which paths the world might take. They include quantitative results, e.g. emissions, energy consumption and electricity mix, as well as developments in the political or social sphere. Lessons learnt include the dangers of increased isolationism and the importance of integrating economic and energy-related objectives, as well as the significant role of civil society. However, we also show that the development of renewables and electrification are inappropriate indicators for a successful energy transition, as these trends are also consistent with emission-intensive scenarios. ; publishedVersion ; © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license

Climate change mitigation and the transformation to a global low-carbon economy is a pressing issue in policy discussions and international negotiations. The political debate is supported by the scientific community with a large number of projections, pathway simulations and scenario analyses of the global energy system and its development over the next decades. These studies are often based on numerical economy-energy-environment-climate models. This DIW Roundup provides an overview of the model types used in the academic arena to evaluate and quantify the potential impacts of energy and climate policy measures. Their aim is to translate specific mitigation pathways into an economic and socio-political assessment, in order to identify trade-offs between different mitigation options. Since no single modelling framework can adequately capture all relevant aspects, a comprehensive assessment requires a mix of models and approaches.

Die Sicherheit der europäischen Erdgasversorgung kann durch die konsequente Vollendung des europäischen Binnenmarktes erheblich gesteigert werden; Europa sollte in der Liberalisierung dem Vorbild der Vereinigten Staaten folgen. Russland kommt zwar auch künftig eine gewisse Bedeutung bei der europäischen Erdgasversorgung zu, jedoch nimmt sein strategisches Gewicht aufgrund des sich globalisierenden Handels mit Flüssiggas (LNG) ab. Der freie Zugang zu Erdgaspipelines und -speichern sowie deren Ausbau sind weitere wesentliche Maßnahmen zur Stärkung der europäischen Versorgungssicherheit.