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There is little doubt that the Democratic Party in the South has become decidedly more liberal over the last several decades. Not as much is known, however, about the extent of this ideological shift (measured in some quantifiable metric), nor the exact causes of this phenomenon. Many have credited the noted ideological sea change with the en masse re-enfranchisement of blacks in the region. In order to test the validity of this claim, aggregate-level data from Louisiana were combined with individual-level survey data to create an ideological profile for the Democratic Party in the Bayou State. Decomposing the transformation by racial groups leads to a counterintuitive finding: over time, blacks have actually served as a moderating force within the party structure. In addition, the white contingent of the Democratic Party has become increasingly more liberal as the proportion of blacks within the party structure has increased. 1 Table, 4 Figures, 10 References. Adapted from the source document.

Objectives. In contemporary U.S. elections there is no shortage of allegations concerning election fraud. These claims are, however, based in large part on anecdotal evidence, unsubstantiated assertions, or the study of reported complaints. The absence of a general methodology to actively search for evidence of election fraud has resulted in policy arguments devoid of empirical data and systematic analyses. Methods. In this article, we present a general methodology to study contemporary election fraud based on the Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD) process. We then apply this approach to a case study of a particular type of fraud. Results. After examining approximately 2.1 million votes cast during the 2006 general election in Georgia, we find no evidence that election fraud was committed under the auspices of deceased registrants. Conclusion. In this article, we have introduced a general methodology for the scientific study of election fraud. We urge social scientists to make use of such a framework to investigate the prevalence of different types of fraud across varying election cycles and jurisdictions.

AbstractObjectiveWe make use of multiple data sources to examine whether there has been geographical polarization in the political behavior of Texas Hispanics from 2012 to 2022. It is widely known that partisan divisions in the American electorate continue to cleave along geographic lines. However, much of this literature on the urban–rural divide does not focus on a specific racial group, and if it does, then it typically highlights differences among non‐Hispanic white voters (Anglos).MethodsMaking use of aggregate‐ and individual‐level data, we assess Texas Hispanics' party affiliation, participation, and vote choice according to geographic location.ResultsWe find notable evidence of geographic‐based partisan polarization among Texas' burgeoning Hispanic population.ConclusionsAlthough the movement of rural/small town Texas Hispanics toward the Republican Party from 2012 to 2022 pales in comparison to this shift among Texas Anglos, a similar partisan dynamic manifests among the former group. We abstain from using the word realignment to characterize these changes in Texas Hispanics' political behavior according to geographic location, but, nevertheless, it is clear that the Democratic Party's hold on this potentially pivotal group in the Lone Star State's electorate has loosened, and especially among rural/small town Latinos since the rise of Donald Trump.

Abstract
In this article, we examine individual- and state-level voter confidence in Georgia from 2020 to 2022—an extremely contentious moment in Georgia politics. For the first time in 28 years, Georgia's electoral votes went to a Democrat, Joe Biden, in 2020. Then, in early January 2021, Democrats won both of Georgia's two U.S. Senate runoffs, giving their party majority control. In the wake of these surprising, historic, and consequential losses, Georgia Republicans' voter confidence plummeted, and their party responded by passing comprehensive electoral reform in Senate Bill (SB) 202. Using survey data, we tracked voter confidence in Georgia before and after 2020, after passage of SB 202 in 2021, and after the 2022 midterm. Partisans' voter confidence is greatly affected by the winner/loser effect in election outcomes. Also, SB 202 did boost Republicans' confidence in Georgia's election system, which, in turn, increased their individual- and state-level voter confidence in the 2022 midterm. In contrast, Georgia Democrats overwhelmingly opposed SB 202; therefore, the bill did not have the same salutary effect on their voter confidence in the 2022 elections.

ObjectiveIn the historic 2018 Georgia gubernatorial election, which for the first time featured a black Democratic woman against a white Republican man, we assess opinions toward voting‐related concerns and their impact on voters' preferences.MethodsWe surveyed political behavior with a representative sample of likely Georgia voters to gauge their perceptions of voting‐related improprieties and their possible effect on vote choice.ResultsOur analysis makes it clear that not only did voters divide over election‐related concerns, which dominated the narrative of the gubernatorial contest, but opinions on this matter strongly influenced the choice for governor.ConclusionsReflecting a national development, but amplified in Georgia because demographic changes and growing minority participation are increasing competition, election administration has become highly politicized and it was the focal point of the 2018 gubernatorial campaign and the principal short‐term factor shaping mass voting behavior.

In 2011, South Carolina passed a government-issued photo identification (ID) statute. We examine the effects of this law on overall turnout, as well as for minority turnout in particular. A series of difference-in-difference tests are specified using individual-level population data on registrants with and without ID, comparing the 2010 (pre-implementation) and 2014 (post-implementation) election cycles. The results of our analysis indicate that the voter ID statute did dampen overall turnout. These findings comport with recent scholarship which has found evidence that voter ID laws can lower turnout rates. The size of the effect, however, is quite diminutive. We estimate that initial implementation of the South Carolina statute decreased turnout in the 2014 general election by 0.19 percent. In addition, the evidence gathered on the question of racial effects indicates that there is no discernible racial impact from the state's voter ID law.

ObjectiveThis article examines the role of black votes in contributing to the renomination of 36‐year Republican Senator Thad Cochran of Mississippi. In 2014, Senator Cochran faced a formidable primary challenge from State Senator Chris McDaniel, a notably more conservative politician. After narrowly losing the primary, Cochran prevailed in the runoff because enough black voters decided to support him.MethodsWe use precinct‐level racial data to derive ecological inference estimates of turnout and then employ a racially homogenous precinct analysis to determine the percentage of the black and white vote won by Cochran and McDaniel.ResultsOur empirical analysis provides convincing evidence that if not for the increase in black voters in the runoff and their overwhelming support for Senator Cochran, his opponent would have ended his lengthy political career.ConclusionsRace has always been the centerpiece of politics in the Deep South state of Mississippi. This is an empirical account of an unlikely electoral event that speaks to the importance of the changing state of southern politics and how a marginalized minority population can still play a pivotal role in a region dominated by a white Republican majority.

Congressional elections have occurred every 2 years since the nation's founding, yet we know surprisingly little about these electoral contests outside of the modern era. This is unfortunate as our understanding of how Congress performs and has evolved over time is directly linked to how its elected representatives reach and maintain office. In an effort to better understand early U.S. House elections, we revisit the era of the "partisan press" where newspapers were the main source of news for American voters and were typically operated by one of the two major parties. Using a data set linking the geographic location of partisan newspapers with electoral data during the early 19th century, we examine district-specific factors impacting the competitiveness of House races. We uncover previously unidentified evidence of candidate-specific effects during this historical era along with confirmation of media influence in the context of early American elections.

AbstractWe analyze the effect of redrawn constituents on incumbent vote shares in Georgia U.S. House elections from 1992 to 2006. The Georgia General Assembly redrew the congressional boundaries for the 2006 midterm and the new lines redistributed approximately 31% of residents into districts with a different incumbent than the one representing them in 2004. With the use of Voting Tabulation District (VTD) data, we use a hierarchical model to evaluate the effect these redrawn constituents had on their new incumbent's vote share. We find a consistent pattern: both Democratic and Republican incumbents experienced significant reductions in their vote shares as a consequence of the redrawn VTDs placed in their districts. The short-term political climate featuring a national Democratic tide and a simultaneous statewide trend favoring the Grand Old Party (GOP) helps to explain this finding. With offsetting partisan conditions, the incumbency advantage came to the fore as Georgia U.S. House members, irrespective of party affiliation, performed better among the constituents they retained prior to redistricting. Our findings for the 2006 election run counter to the significant Republican redistricting advantage prevailing in Georgia congressional contests from 1992 to 2004.

In 2005 the Republican-controlled General Assembly redrew Georgia's congressional districts in order to gain additional seats in the 2006 midterm election. In this article we present a case study of the effects of redistricting on turnout and vote choice in Georgia's District 8 in the 2006 U.S. House election. It is apparent both from our findings and an elite interview, that unlike the more aggressive strategy employed by Texas Republicans in 2003, Georgia Republicans tried to thread the needle in their goal of winning District 8. Conventional wisdom suggests that if a political party controls redistricting it will maximize its electoral opportunities. But this was not the case in Georgia.

Objective. We make use of individual‐level survey data from the 2006 midterm election in order to determine the degree to which redistricting affected the vote choice of whites residing in Georgia Congressional Districts 8 and 12.Methods. A multivariate probit model was used to assess the probability of voting for the GOP House candidate among voters represented by the same incumbent before and after redistricting versus voters who had been newly drawn into one of these districts.Results. Despite a national tide that favored the Democratic Party in the 2006 elections, redrawn whites were more likely to vote for the Republican challengers in the districts surveyed.Conclusions. Our findings indicate that redistricting can be used to dampen the incumbency advantage. In addition, the findings of this research also speak to the continuing Republican realignment of white voters in the Deep South and to the recognition that the effects of redistricting are dependent on political context.

Tests underlying assumptions regarding the impact of a concealed-handgun policy on violent crime rates, positing that significant differences exist within geographic areas, & that permit holders reside in areas not prone to high levels of violent crime. Analysis of aggregate-level data at the zip code level for Dallas, TX, along with individual-level data on permit holders, reveals stark differences across zip codes regarding the number of permits, sociodemographic characteristics, & violent crime rates. Permit holders are overwhelmingly white males & reside in areas with little violent crime. Those areas with high violent crime rates are the least likely to also contain a high number of residents with concealed-handgun permits. It is concluded that knowledge about the distribution of permits within geographic areas is vital to properly specify empirical models. 6 Tables, 3 Figures, 10 References. Adapted from the source document.