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Bangladesh is on the precipice of another controversial national election, to be held on 7 January 2024. The last two elections, held in 2014 and 2018, were marred by allegations of electoral fraud but provided resounding victory for Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's party. During her 14-year rule, Bangladesh has seen impressive economic growth, yet its democratic standards have declined steeply. Bangladesh is facing a political stalemate over the administration of the election. The government has rejected the opposition's demand for the reinstatement of the neutral caretaker government system that had overseen elections between 1991 and 2008. In response, the opposition is boycotting the polls. Hasina is also under considerable international pressure, especially from the United States, to ensure free, fair, and inclusive elections. However, the government appears determined to administer another one-sided election - which would consolidate Bangladesh's turn towards authoritarianism. Popular discontent related to the rising cost of living and economic mismanagement is providing momentum to anti-government sentiment domestically. Violent confrontations between opposition activists and ruling-party members, especially in the case of a rigged election, could destabilise the country in the post-election period.

Since August 2017 Bangladesh has hosted 1.1 million Rohingya refugees in the world's largest refugee camp, along its restive borderlands with Myanmar. Frustrated with a stalled repatriation process, Bangladesh is moving forward with policies focused on refugee redistribution and stricter camp surveillance. Though potentially effective in the short term, such policies could complicate Bangladesh's relations with donors and worsen human rights abuses against the refugees.
The Bangladeshi government wants to formally start refugee relocation to Bhashan Char - a remote, flood-prone island in the Bay of Bengal - at the end of the monsoon season (early November). The island will isolate the relocated refugee population from their kin while complicating human security issues such as aid delivery, emergency medical assistance, and support during natural disasters.
The relocation could help decongest the overpopulated camps, which have seen a rise in coronavirus cases since May 2020. However, the move risks making Bangladesh unpopular with international development partners on human rights and refugee protection grounds. A comparison with the recent fatal fire accident in the Moria refugee camp on the isle of Lesbos, Greece, will be difficult to avoid.
The government is further tightening surveillance in the camps after recent violent clashes between rival refugee gangs fighting for control over territory and a burgeoning illegal drug trade.
For decades, Bangladesh has served as a jumping-off point for Rohingya to illegally migrate to other Muslim countries in the region. The protracted refugee situation and the COVID-19 lockdowns have compounded these clandestine efforts in recent months. Thus, the Rohingya refugee crisis could potentially turn into a regional "boat-people" crisis.
In Myanmar's current hyper-nationalist political climate, the resettlement of Rohingya refugees remains highly contested, hence unlikely in the near term. Therefore, European policymakers should continue to engage with Myanmar's political regime on finding sustainable solutions for the Rohingya crisis. The EU should also conduct targeted lobbying aimed at dissuading Bangladesh from the controversial refugee relocation plan, while maintaining its financial commitments to improve security and living conditions for the refugees.