Suchergebnisse

ABSTRACTDid industrialisation improve standards of living in interwar industrial Spain? We seek to contrast this empirically with high frequency data from 1914 until 1936 for the Bilbao area, an emerging industrial centre. Contrary to existing historiography suggesting that overall standards of living improved, we find that welfare ratios remained at the same level and, at times, fluctuated significantly below sustenance levels. Demographic and socioeconomic variables were highly responsive to short-term real wage shocks driven by food price increases and the delay in nominal wage increases. Interwar industrialisation provided improvements, but did not provide protection from recurring deprivations and these may have constituted an important part of future political and socioeconomic polarisation and violence.

AbstractThis paper presents the first results of our most recent research on the Bilbao Stock Exchange (BSE) from its foundation in 1890 up to the Spanish Civil War. We examine the origin of the Exchange and follow its evolution over the first half-century of existence. To this end we introduce some of the stock exchange indexes we have calculated for Bilbao and put them into comparative perspective with the existing series on general economic and industrial activity and the indexes for other Spanish exchanges for the period considered. These comparisons show Bilbao's evolution from a public debt-dominated market to an industrial exchange very much tied to regional development. Finally, we contrast the degree of financial market integration associated with the existing Spanish exchange indexes. Our analysis finds strong support for considering the BSE index as an industrial index and little evidence of capital market integration between the principal Spanish exchanges before the 1920s.

Abstract
The Spanish Second Republic was a unique experiment of democratization in interwar Europe, which was characterized by extreme levels of political uncertainty. We find that investors responded to shifts in uncertainty by selling stocks in favor of government bonds—a behavior known as flight-to-safety. Additionally, we find that political uncertainty caused stock market stress and induced significant differences in the cross-section of expected stock returns, consistent with the exposures to political uncertainty. The fact that investors recurrently scuttled to shelter into government bonds suggests that they did not perceive a radical change in the political regime as an immediate and credible threat.