Suchergebnisse

Existing evidence suggests that offenders tend not to specialize in sexual offending in general but that there is some specialization in particular types of sexual offending. This study examined the sexual histories and reoffending of a large, national data set of offenders convicted of a sexual offense and managed in England and Wales by the National Offender Management Service ( N = 14,804). The study found that specialization in sexual offending compared to nonsexual offending was most evident for offenders with convictions for accessing indecent images. We also found considerable evidence of specialization within sexual offending, most notably for noncontact offenders, especially again indecent images offenders. Crossover between sexual offense types was very rare for those with contact adult offenses and for noncontact offenders although those with child contact offenses sometimes crossed over to indecent images reoffending. If specialization within sexual offending exists, the use of single risk assessment instruments to predict all types of sexual recidivism may be less effective than previously assumed. A comparison of different prediction models indicated that some items presently used in one-size-fits-all risk tools to predict any sexual reoffending only effectively predict certain subtypes of sexual offending. Statistically there appear to be some potential benefits to creating specialist risk predictors for different subtypes of offending, but further work is needed to justify the implementation demands that would be caused by abandoning one-size-fits-all tools.

This study examined the predictive validity of an actuarial risk-assessment tool with convicted sexual offenders in England and Wales. A modified version of the RM2000/s scale and the RM2000 v and c scales (Thornton et al., 2003) were examined for accuracy in predicting proven sexual violent, nonsexual violent, and combined sexual and/or nonsexual violent reoffending in a sample of sexual offenders who had either started a community sentence or been released from prison into the community by March 2007. Rates of proven reoffending were examined at 2 years for the majority of the sample ( n = 4,946), and 4 years ( n = 578) for those for whom these data were available. The predictive validity of the RM2000 scales was also explored for different subgroups of sexual offenders to assess the robustness of the tool. Both the modified RM2000/s and the complete v and c scales effectively classified offenders into distinct risk categories that differed significantly in rates of proven sexual and/or nonsexual violent reoffending. Survival analyses on the RM2000/s and v scales ( N = 9,284) indicated that the higher risk groups offended more quickly and at a higher rate than lower risk groups. The relative predictive validity of the RM2000/s, v, and c, as calculated using Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) analyses, were moderate (.68) for RM2000/s and large for both the RM2000/c (.73) and RM2000/v (.80), at the 2-year follow-up. RM2000/s was moderately accurate in predicting relative risk of proven sexual reoffending for a variety of subgroups of sexual offenders.