Suchergebnisse

The purpose of this article is to make available in somewhat more detailed form than has heretofore appeared, the results of a population projection recently made by Mr. M. C. MacLean and the present writer and to discuss some of the more important implications of the indicated changes in the Canadian population structure.The Basis of Projection. In making the projection specific, birthrates were computed by relating the average number of births over the six years 1931-6 to the estimated number of survivors of the 1931 adult female population at the mid-point of that period. The projection was carried forward by five-year intervals for the two sexes separately using birth-rates so computed and mortality rates derived from the official all-Canada life tables for 1931. These rates were held constant throughout and no account was taken of the possible future effects of immigration and emigration or of war.The reason tor this procedure as well as tor the selection oi the above-mentioned birth- and death-rates may be stated briefly. During the post-war decade (1921-31) the crude birth-rate in Canada as reflected by the ratio of children 0-4 to women 15-44 experienced a quite unusual and drastic decline. It fell by as much as 14.4 per cent in the ten-year period as compared with an average drop of approximately 5 per cent per decade in the preceding fifty years. About half of the decline in the last intercensal decade may be attributed to postponed marriages. A further drastic decline was registered during the depression years which undoubtedly resulted in many more postponed marriages. It seemed reasonable, therefore, to regard the existing low rates as somewhat abnormal and cyclical in character, and to anticipate at least a moderate though perhaps temporary revival as soon as economic conditions permitted the resumption of marriages on anything approaching a normal level. At the same time experience in Canada, as well as in other countries, suggests that the underlying trend in Canadian birthrates is likely to be downward for some time to come. Instead of attempting corrections for trend and cyclical movements which at best would involve a good deal of guess-work, it was decided to use throughout the low rates prevailing during the first part of the present decade (1931-6) on the assumption that their use would offset in some measure the neglect of the long-term downward trend.

During the last fifteen years carefully prepared population forecasts have appeared for nearly every important country possessed of reasonably adequate vital statistics and census records. With the general recognition of essential differences between the behaviour of bugs in a bottle and homo sapiens "in leaky national containers", the usual procedure in the more recent studies has been to isolate the principal component factors in population growth, predict the future trend in each, and thus estimate the probable population ten, twenty, fifty, or more years hence. Already the majority of even the more conservative forecasts are proving too high and almost invariably because of over-estimation of the birth-rate.Errors of this sort are not unexpected in view of the inherent difficulties of the problem. Their number is legion; it will suffice to note three. First, there is the difficulty of foreseeing changes in the social and particularly in the economic environment. Even in so-called normal times, each year brings unanticipated and sometimes substantial modifications in the complex of social forces making for greater or smaller rates of population increase. The duration and severity of such abnormal phenomena as the present depression are, of course, incapable of measurement in advance. Second, the nature and extent of human reactions to environmental change vary greatly both from country to country and from time to time. How a particular people will behave in a new situation is, therefore, usually a matter of considerable uncertainty. This uncertainty is in part at least attributable to a third difficulty. While many excellent studies, especially during the last decade, have contributed materially to a more adequate understanding of the forces controlling population growth, the existing state of knowledge still falls appreciably short of permitting precise quantitative measurement of many important influences on the birth-rate.

In an earlier paper an attempt was made to isolate certain of the major population movements occurring in Canada during the last intercensal decade and to demonstrate their bearing on the current situation in, and the future outlook for, the country as a whole. Recently available provincial data have made possible the elaboration of the preceding analysis and the addition of many essential details to the picture. A summary of the more important findings from this supplementary study is given in part I. This article also affords an opportunity to make one or two minor revisions, the necessity for which was revealed when the provincial estimates were balanced against the earlier totals derived from figures for the Dominion as a whole.