BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Previous examinations of International Classification of Disease, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) codes to predict accuracy of diagnosis in inflammatory bowel disease have had limited chart review to confirm diagnosis. We aimed to evaluate using the ICD-9-CM for identifying Crohn's disease (CD) in a large electronic health record (EHR) database. METHODS: This is a retrospective case-control study with a 3:1 allocation of EHRs of active duty service members diagnosed with CD from 1996 to 2012. Subjects were selected by having two ICD-9-CM codes for CD during the study period. Gastroenterologists reviewed each chart and confirmed the diagnosis of CD by analysing medication history and clinical, endoscopic, histological, and radiographic exams. RESULTS: 300 cases of CD were selected; 14 cases were discarded due to lack of data, limiting our analysis to 284 subjects. Two diagnostic codes for CD had sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value (PPV) of 1.0, 0.53, and 0.69, respectively, for confirmed CD. If two encounters listing CD were with a gastroenterologist, the sensitivity, specificity, and PPV was 0.76, 0.81, and 0.80, respectively. If a colonoscopy was performed within 90 days of any three encounters with a CD code, the sensitivity, specificity, and PPV was 0.51, 0.94, and 0.89, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The poor PPV of ICD-9-CM codes in making the diagnosis of CD should be taken into consideration when interpreting results and when conducting research using such codes. Limiting these codes to those patients who have been given this diagnosis by a gastroenterologist, or to those who have had a colonoscopy near the time of diagnosis, increases the PPV.
BACKGROUND & AIMS: Low serum levels of vitamin D have been associated with Crohn's disease (CD). However, it is unclear whether low vitamin D levels cause CD or CD reduces serum vitamin D. METHODS: United States military personnel with CD (n [ 240) and randomly selected individuals without CD (controls, n [ 240) were matched by age, sex, race, military branch, and geography. We measured 25-hydroxyvitamin D in sera 8–3 years (pre-2) and 3 years to 3 months before diagnosis (pre-1) and 3 months before through 21 months after diagnosis (pre-0). We genotyped VDR and GC vitamin D related polymorphisms. We used conditional logistic regression, including adjustments for smoking, season, enlistment status, and deployment, to estimate relative odds of CD according to vitamin D levels and interactions between genetic factors and levels of vitamin D. RESULTS: Levels of vitamin D before diagnosis were not associated with CD in pre-2 (P trend = .65) or pre-1 samples (P trend = .84). However, we found an inverse correlation between CD and highest tertile of vitamin D level in post-diagnosis samples (P trend = .01; odds ratio, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.30–0.86). Interactions were not detected between vitamin D levels and VDR or GC polymorphisms. We observed an association between VDR Taq1 polymorphism and CD (independent of vitamin D) (P = .02). CONCLUSIONS: In serum samples from military personnel with CD and matched controls, we found no evidence for an association between CD and vitamin D levels up to 8 years before diagnosis. However, we observed an inverse-association between post-diagnosis vitamin D levels and CD. These findings suggest that low vitamin D does not contribute to development of CD—instead, CD leads to low vitamin D.
This review describes the history of US government funding for surveillance programs in IBD, provides current estimates of the incidence and prevalence of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) in the United States (US), and enumerates a number of challenges faced by current and future IBD surveillance programs. A rationale for expanding the focus of IBD surveillance beyond counts of incidence and prevalence, in order to provide a greater understanding of the burden of IBD, disease etiology and pathogenesis, is provided. Lessons learned from other countries are summarized, as well as potential resources that may be used to optimize a new form of IBD surveillance in the US. A consensus recommendation on the goals and available resources for a new model for disease surveillance are provided. This new model should focus upon "surveillance of the burden of disease," including 1) natural history of disease and 2) outcomes and complications of the disease and/or treatments.
The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the funders. Data for this research was provided by MEASURE Evaluation, funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of USAID, the US Government, or MEASURE Evaluation. The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics granted the researchers access to relevant data in accordance with licence no. SLN2014-3-170, after subjecting data to processing aiming to preserve the confidentiality of individual data in accordance with the General Statistics Law-2000. The researchers are solely responsible for the conclusions and inferences drawn upon available data. ; Background Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. ; Research reported in this publication was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the University of Melbourne, Public Health England, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, the National Institute on Aging of the National Institutes of Health (award P30AG047845), and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health (award R01MH110163). ; Peer reviewed