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Abstract
While the labour markets in Europe and around the world suffered from the great recession of 2008/2009 and the European debt crisis of 2012/2013, there was a robust labour market upswing in Germany. We consider the reasons behind this development by examining a broad set of candidate factors in an empirical analysis. Matching efficiency, the intensity of job creation, the growing labour force, and the declining propensity to separate explain most of the German labour market upswing. Not all of these factors are still applicable. Additionally, further efforts to improve job opportunities for the unemployed and to secure skilled workers are necessary.

"This paper aims at analyzing the development of wage inequality for the German labor market from 1984 to 2008. Using the S-IAB, a large administrative data set based on social security data, we have access to very reliable earnings information for a 2 percent random sample of the German workforce. We find that between 1984 and 2008, average earnings of full-time male workers aged 25 to 55 increased by 13 percent in real terms. However, the development of earnings was very different in different parts of the distribution. At the first decile real wages have fallen by about 10 percent, whereas at the ninth decile they have increased by more than 30 percent. Moreover, we show that between 1984 and 2008 earnings inequality rose both between and within age and education subgroups. A substantial part of the increase in inequality is due to changes below the median. Following the decomposition method based on Juhn, Murphy, Pierce (1993), we can disentangle the different sources for the increased wage inequality, namely the price effect, the effect of characteristics and the effect of unobserved residuals which account for 12, 25 and 63 percent respectively in 2008. But also here there are substantial differences between the different subgroups, and the composition shows remarkable changes over time as well. We show that controlling for sector information partly reduces the otherwise clearly dominating residual effect. However, the main explanation (78%) for the increase in the raw variation of male earnings is that wage dispersion within the different sectors increased whereas composition effects seem to be only of minor importance." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

"This paper aims at analyzing the development of wage inequality for the German labor market from 1984 to 2008. Using the S-IAB, a large administrative data set based on social security data, we have access to very reliable earnings information for a 2 percent random sample of the German workforce. We find that between 1984 and 2008, average earnings of full-time male workers aged 25 to 55 increased by 13 percent in real terms. However, the development of earnings was very different in different parts of the distribution. At the first decile real wages have fallen by about 10 percent, whereas at the ninth decile they have increased by more than 30 percent. Moreover, we show that between 1984 and 2008 earnings inequality rose both between and within age and education subgroups. A substantial part of the increase in inequality is due to changes below the median. Following the decomposition method based on Juhn, Murphy, Pierce (1993), we can disentangle the different sources for the increased wage inequality, namely the price effect, the effect of characteristics and the effect of unobserved residuals which account for 12, 25 and 63 percent respectively in 2008. But also here there are substantial differences between the different subgroups, and the composition shows remarkable changes over time as well. We show that controlling for sector information partly reduces the otherwise clearly dominating residual effect. However, the main explanation (78%) for the increase in the raw variation of male earnings is that wage dispersion within the different sectors increased whereas composition effects seem to be only of minor importance." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku). Die Untersuchung enthält quantitative Daten. Forschungsmethode: empirisch-quantitativ; empirisch; Sekundäranalyse. Die Untersuchung bezieht sich auf den Zeitraum 1984 bis 2008.

Die Zahlen zur Beschäftigung und zum Leistungsbezug rechtfertigen es gegenwärtig nicht, die Zuwanderung aus Bulgarien und Rumänien pauschal als 'Armutszuwanderung' zu qualifizieren. Zur Jahresmitte 2013 waren rund 60 Prozent der Bulgaren und Rumänen im erwerbsfähigen Alter in Deutschland erwerbstätig. Die Arbeitslosenquote lag bei 7,4 Prozent und der Anteil der SGB-II-Leistungsempfänger an der bulgarischen und rumänischen Bevölkerung bei 10 Prozent. Allerdings haben 46 Prozent der Bulgaren und Rumänen, die nach 2007 zugewandert sind, keine abgeschlossene Berufsausbildung. In einigen strukturschwachen Kommunen wie Duisburg, Dortmund und Berlin konzentrieren sich die sozialen und ökonomischen Probleme der Bulgaren und Rumänen. Hier sind nicht nur die Arbeitslosen- und Leistungsempfängerquoten zum Teil sehr hoch. Vor allem sind hier 60 bis 75 Prozent der Bulgaren und Rumänen weder erwerbstätig noch im Leistungsbezug. Durch Einführung der vollständigen Arbeitnehmerfreizügigkeit steigen einerseits die Beschäftigungsmöglichkeiten im ersten Arbeitsmarkt, andererseits erweitert sich der Kreis der potenziellen Leistungsbezieher. Unter optimistischen Annahmen wird die Zahl der SGB-II-Leistungsempfänger zum Jahresende 2014 auf 50.000 bis 58.000, unter extrem pessimistischen Annahmen auf 80.000 bis 93.000 Personen steigen. Die Arbeitsmarktpolitik sollte sich vor allem auf die Vermittlung von geringer Qualifizierten fokussieren. Strukturschwache Kommunen, in denen sich die Probleme konzentrieren, könnten mit Mitteln aus dem Bundeshaushalt kompensiert werden. Der Leistungsausschluss von EU-Bürgern, die sich zum Zweck der Arbeitssuche in Deutschland aufhalten, ist ökonomisch sinnvoll und sollte beibehalten werden.