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In this article, we explore the demographic future of the world with a focus on scenarios for Russia and Germany. We seek an alternative to the Western standards of scenarios for global demographic development. We consider demographic development both in a positive and negative sense. Our analysis rests on such theoretical structures as the general theory of population, the classical theory of demographic transition, the concepts of the 'second', 'third', and 'fourth' demographic transitions, and scenarios for the 'Eurasian demographic development path'. We employ a range of methods from comparative demography as well as historical analogies, expert evaluations and demographic forecasts. We analyse the patterns of current demographic development in Russia and Germany to explore various demographic scenarios. In the conclusion, we stress the need for Russia and other countries, including Germany, to embark on the 'Eurasian demographic development path' in view of the countries' geographical positions and demographic values, with children being a dominant one. Otherwise, both Germany and Russia may disappear as national states as early as this century. The findings of this study can be used to improve the demographic policies of Russia and Germany.

Consortium for Applied Research on International Migration (CARIM-East) is co-financed by the European University Institute and the European Union

In Russia the problem of human trafficking was acknowledged as a national security issue in the early 2000s, above all, in relation to the threat of terrorism. In March 2004 Russia ratified the UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime and Palermo Protocol to Prevent, Suppress and Punish Trafficking in Persons, Especially Women and Children. In doing so Russia undertook a number of commitments against human trafficking. By that time there were already alarming estimates warning that Central and Eastern Europe, including the former Soviet Union, ranked second in the world in terms of human trafficking after south-east Asia [1] and every year around 175,000 women (1997 estimate) were taken from the region in human trafficking schemes [2]. Russia, according to expert estimates, may account for 20-30% of this flow [3], i.e. at least tens of thousands a year. These estimates do not take into account human trafficking in both women and men within the CIS region, i.e. large-scale flows of migrants illegally transferred from CIS countries to Russia for labor and sexual exploitation. ; Consortium for Applied Research on International Migration (CARIM-East) is co-financed by the European University Institute and the European Union

CARIM-East: Creating an Observatory of Migration East of Europe ; This is the translated version of CARIM-East RR 2013/12 ; The work here is of both a theoretical and an applied character. The authors pay particular attention to understanding what the integration of migrants means and how it corresponds to the terms assimilation and adaptation. They also offer a classification of complete and partial integration. For Russia, the paper retraces how the disregard of migrant integration in the 1990s and the first half of the 2000s was gradually replaced – after a delay – by an understanding that these were closely interrelated spheres of State activities. This was particularly true for a country like Russia, which annually receives millions of migrants, both for permanent and temporary stays. The experience of Russia clearly demonstrates that the dissociation of the State from this important sphere of internal policy leads to ethnic tension, erosion of tolerance in society, alienation of migrants from Russian society, self-isolation, and open conflicts between migrants and local residents. Therefore, now that the integration of migrants has been understood to be an important issue in Russia, the elaboration and realization of the policy of integration of migrants is complicated by an extremely unfavorable atmosphere of xenophobia and a politically-loaded perception of migration. The Russian policy of migrant integration is evaluated in respect of the most privileged category of immigrants: Russian "compatriots". The adaptation policy of temporary labour migrants is analyzed in the context of the Russian State's 2012 initiatives. The authors also argue out the integration and the anti-integration potential of ethnic diasporas when – as in present-day Russia – the infrastructure for the admission and integration of migrants has not been properly developed. ; CARIM-East is co-financed by the European University Institute and the European Union.

Consortium for Applied Research on International Migration (CARIM-East) is co-financed by the European University Institute and the European Union

CARIM-East is co-financed by the European University Institute and the European Union. ; In the two post-Soviet decades Russia has become actively involved in international labour flows. Today Russia acts as an exporter and an importer of labour in the global labour market: Russian citizens work all over the world, from Europe to New Zealand; while labor migrants in the Russian Federation are predominantly citizens from the former Soviet republics. Russia annually attracts around 1.5 million labour migrants, three quarters of whom come from the CIS countries. In fact, the Russian labour market is a regional one, employing millions of citizens of the post-Soviet countries, a fact which, in the end, provides relative social stability in the region. The present executive summary examines both sides of Russian participation in the global labour market. However, the main focus is on labour migration to Russia, as the import of labour resources is larger and more significant for the country's economic development. ; CARIM-East: Creating an Observatory of Migration East of Europe

Migration data collection within Russia has significantly improved in recent years. A set of laws and administrative decrees launched in 2002-2010 have updated the system of migrant registration and have improved communication channels between data collecting administrative bodies (Ministry of Interior, Federal Migration Service, Border Service, etc.) and the Federal Statistical Service of the Russian Federation (Rosstat). In 2009, the elaboration of the Integrated System of Migration Data (Gosudarstvennaya Informatsionnaya Systema Migratsionnogo Ucheta - GISMU) was finalized. Its core is the Centralized databank on foreign nationals (Centralny bank dannykh ucheta inostrannykh grajdan - CBDUIG) that carries both personal and statistical information. Collection of migration data focuses mainly on migrants' flows, while data on migrant stocks are an object for population censuses only. Russian statistical sources usually separate data on migration exchange with the post-Soviet countries (CIS & Baltic countries and Georgia) (novoye zarubejye) from data on all other countries (staroye zarubejye). This division is fundamental because of differences in migration flows between Russia and the two groups of countries in terms of nature, scale, structure, as well as the migration regulations applied. ; Consortium for Applied Research on International Migration (CARIM-East) is co-financed by the European University Institute and the European Union

The subject-matter of this article is migration from Russia. The study deals with current aspects and new forms of emigration. The goal of this paper is to identify new patterns determining the emigration from Russia. The article views the emigration in a broad sense, including, in addition to classic emigration (i.e. leaving the home country for permanent residence in another country), various categories of return migration (labor migration, shuttle traders, seasonal migration, episodic migration, economic tourism, business migration, education abroad, etc.). With the emergence of these new forms and categories, there is a need to clarify the migration concepts. This analysis is built on a broad historical perspective on emigration, which has been a typical phenomenon for Russia over the last three centuries. The article is based on such economic theories, as the human capital theory, new economic theory of migration, Todaro's economic theory of migration and other. In this article, a variety of methods are used, including historical analogy, statistical and mathematical approaches, sociological and econometric models. The article analyzes the patterns of modern emigration from Russia. It also considers certain aspects in the legal regulation of migration processes, with a focus on emigrants, including potential emigrants. In conclusion, the article notes the need for the state control of emigration processes. This means not so much the improvement of statistical records for this group of migrants, but rather speci c government measures aimed at providing the state support to these categories of migrants in order to prevent the non-return migration. In other words, it is not aimed at banning the emigration (a measure, the adverse effects of which were noted as long ago as by Mikhail Lomonosov). The ndings of this research can be used in improving the migration policy implemented, in particular, by the Federal Migration Service of Russia.

Consortium for Applied Research on International Migration (CARIM-East) is co-financed by the European University Institute and the European Union ; Russian version of CARIM-East 2013/119

В России проблема торговли людьми как угроза национальной безопасности, во многом связанная с проблемой терроризма, была осознана в начале 2000-х гг. В марте 2004 г. Россия ратифицировала Конвенцию ООН против транснациональной организованной преступности и дополняющий ее Палермский Протокол о предупреждении, пресечении и наказании за торговлю людьми, особенно женщинами и детьми, взяв на себя тем самым ряд обязательств по борьбе с торговлей людьми. К тому времени уже были озвучены тревожные оценки того, что регион Центральной и Восточной Европы, включая пространство бывшего СССР, занимает второе место в мире по масштабам торговли людьми после Юго-Восточной Азии [1] и ежегодно порядка 175 тыс. женщин (оценка на 1997 г.) вывозятся из региона по схемам торговли людьми [2]. На Россию, по оценкам экспертов, может приходиться от 20 до 30% этого потока [3], т.е. как минимум, несколько десятков тысяч человек в год. При этом эти оценки не учитывают торговлю людьми, как женщинами, так и мужчинами, внутри региона СНГ, то есть масштабные потоки мигрантов, перемещаемых по криминальным схемам с целью трудовой и сексуальной эксплуатации из государств СНГ в Россию. ; Consortium for Applied Research on International Migration (CARIM-East) is co-financed by the European University Institute and the European Union ; Russian version of CARIM-East 2013/55

CARIM-East: Creating an Observatory of Migration East of Europe ; This is the translated version of CARIM-East RR 2013/13 ; Настоящее исследование носит одновременно концептуальный и прикладной характер. Авторы уделяют особое внимание определению сущности понятия интеграция мигрантов, его соотношению с понятиями ассимиляция и адаптация, вводят понятия полной и частичной интеграции. Подробно рассмотрено, как на смену игнорированию вопроса интеграции мигрантов в российской государственной миграционной политике в 1990-х и начале 2000-х гг. с большим опозданием, но все же пришло понимание того, что это тесно взаимосвязанные сферы государственной деятельности для такой страны, как Россия, которая ежегодно принимает миллионы мигрантов, постоянных и временных. Пример России четко свидетельствует, что самоустранение государства из этой сферы внутренней политики оборачивается обострением межэтнической напряженности, снижением уровня толерантности в обществе, отчуждением мигрантов со стороны российского общества, их самоизоляцией, открытыми конфликтами между мигрантами и местным населением. Так что теперь, когда интеграция мигрантов осознана, наконец, как исключительно актуальная задача, разработка и осуществление политики интеграции осложняется тем, что она происходит на исключительно неблагоприятном фоне роста ксенофобии и общей политизированности миграционной темы. В статье подробно анализируется политика интеграции мигрантов, осуществляемая с 2007 г в отношении переселяющихся в Россию "соотечественников" - наиболее привилегированной группы иммигрантов, а также дается оценка политике адаптации временных трудовых мигрантов в свете последних государственных инициатив 2012 года. Кроме того, авторы рассуждают об интеграционном и анти-интеграционном потенциале этнических диаспор в условиях, когда – как это имеет место в современной России – официальная инфраструктура приема и интеграции мигрантов не имеет должного развития. ; CARIM-East is co-financed by the European University Institute and the European Union.

Consortium for Applied Research on International Migration (CARIM-East) is co-financed by the European University Institute and the European Union ; Russian version of CARIM-East 2013/16

Сбор статистических данных по миграции в России значительно улучшился в последние годы. Свод законов и административных постановлений 2002-2010 годов модернизировал систему регистрации мигрантов и улучшил обмен информацией между собирающими данные административными органами (Министерство внутренних дел, Федеральная миграционная служба, Пограничная служба и т.д.) и Федеральной статистической службой России (Росстат). В 2009 году была завершена разработка интегрированной системы миграционных данных (Государственная информационная система миграционного учета - ГИЦМУ). Ее ядром является централизованная база данных иностранных граждан (Центральный банк данных учета иностранных граждан - ЦБДУИГ), которая содержит как личные, так и статистические данные. Сбор данных по миграции ориентирован в основном на потоки мигрантов, в то время как данные о численности мигрантов являются объектом переписи населения. Российские статистические источники обычно отделяют данные миграционного обмена с постсоветскими странами (СНГ и страны Балтии и Грузия) (новое зарубежье) от данных о мигрантах из всех прочих стран (старое зарубежье). Это разделение является фундаментальным из-за различий в миграционных потоках между Россией и этими двумя группами стран с точки зрения как характера миграций, масштабов, структуры, так и применяемых миграционных законодательств. ; Consortium for Applied Research on International Migration (CARIM-East) is co-financed by the European University Institute and the European Union ; Russian version of CARIM-East 2011/19

Russian version of CARIM-East RR2012/04 ; CARIM-East: Creating an Observatory of Migration East of Europe ; CARIM-East is co-financed by the European University Institute and the European Union.