Suchergebnisse

La seguridad ciudadana es una condición esencial para la realización de las personas; en aporte a esto, el objetivo del artículo es proporcionar información relevante sobre el comportamiento del crimen, analizando los delitos de mayor connotación social ocurridos en las comunas de la Región Metropolitana de Chile. El método elegido es un modelo logístico, que incluye covariables socioeconómicas y demográficas de cada comuna, además de efectos espaciales y temporales. En el caso de las primeras, destaca la importancia que tiene la población, la mortalidad infantil, los ingresos propios permanentes y la pobreza como factores que aumentan significativamente la probabilidad de perpetración de delitos, especialmente los robos en todas sus formas. En este mismo orden de ideas, la asistencia escolar y las áreas verdes disminuyen la ocurrencia de delitos. Crímenes que destacan por su extrema violencia, como son el homicidio y la violación, ocurren con mayor probabilidad los días sábado y domingo; se suma a ellos, además, el viernes, para los delitos de lesiones y robo con violencia. Con todo, es importante este tipo de análisis, que permite identificar patrones delictivos que pueda adoptar el crimen, todo orientado a una prevención del delito focalizada y basada en evidencia, con el fin de contener el crimen y, así, favorecer el desan del delito focalizada y basada en evidencia, con el fin de contener el crimen y, así, favorecer el desarrollo humano, lo que permite al individuo y a la comunidad realizar sus legítimas aspiraciones.

[EN] As house mortgage appraisal values have played a leading role in the 2007-2012 financial crisis, it is important to develop robust mass appraisal models that correctly estimate these values. The present paper intends to propose a methodology to examine the spatial distribution of house mortgage appraisal values. To do so, we analyzed the effect that these values, cadastral urban land values, characteristics of houses, and socioeconomic conditions and services in neighborhoods, have on house mortgage appraisal values in the 70 boroughs of Valencia (Spain). Econometric and spatial models were used, and variables were calculated as the mean and weighted values per boroughs. Our results showed that the hierarchy of cadastral values impacted mortgage appraisal values. Conversely, not all the boroughs-related variables influenced the mean mortgage values of houses, although some did anomalously. We conclude that the spatial error or autoregressive models provided very good fit results, which somewhat improved the ordinary least square model. Moreover, house mortgage appraisal values may be influenced by not only cadastral values but also by some district characteristics like mean family property size, vehicle age, distance from a metro station or from infant or primary education centers. ; Guadalajara Olmeda, MN.; Lopez, MA.; Iftimi, A.; Usai, A. (2021). Influence of the cadastral value of the urban land and neigh-borhood characteristics on the mean house mortgage appraisal. Land. 10(3):1-17. https://doi.org/10.3390/land10030250 ; S ; 1 ; 17 ; 10 ; 3

[EN] Background: Mortality decreased in European Union (EU) countries during the last century. Despite these similar trends, there are still considerable differences in the levels of mortality between Eastern and Western European countries. Sub-group analysis of mortality in Europe for different age and sex groups is common, however to our knowledge a spatio-temporal methodology as in this study has not been applied to detect significant spatial dependence and interaction with time. Thus, the objective of this paper is to quantify the dynamics of mortality in Europe and detect significant clusters of mortality between European countries, applying spatio-temporal methodology. In addition, the joint evolution between the mortality of European countries and their neighbours over time was studied. Methods: The spatio-temporal methodology used in this study takes into account two factors: time and the geographical location of countries and, consequently, the neighbourhood relationships between them. This methodology was applied to 26 European countries for the period 1990-2012. Results: Principally, for people older than 64 years two significant clusters were obtained: one of high mortality formed by Eastern European countries and the other of low mortality composed of Western countries. In contrast, for ages below or equal to 64 years only the significant cluster of high mortality formed by Eastern European countries was observed. In addition, the joint evolution between the 26 European countries and their neighbours during the period 1990-2012 was confirmed. For this reason, it can be said that mortality in EU not only depends on differences in the health systems, which are a subject to national discretion, but also on supra-national developments. Conclusions: This paper proposes statistical tools which provide a clear framework for the successful implementation of development public policies to help the UE meet the challenge of rethinking its social model (Social Security and health care) and make it sustainable ...

Importance Limited information on the transmission and dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 at the city scale is available. Objective To describe the local spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Valencia, Spain. Design, Setting, and Participants This single-center epidemiological cohort study of patients with SARS-CoV-2 was performed at University General Hospital in Valencia (population in the hospital catchment area, 364 000), a tertiary hospital. The study included all consecutive patients with COVID-19 isolated at home from the start of the COVID-19 pandemic on February 19 until August 31, 2020. Exposures Cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by the presence of IgM antibodies or a positive polymerase chain reaction test result on a nasopharyngeal swab were included. Cases in which patients with negative laboratory results met diagnostic and clinical criteria were also included. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was the characterization of dissemination patterns and connections among the 20 neighborhoods of Valencia during the outbreak. To recreate the transmission network, the inbound and outbound connections were studied for each region, and the relative risk of infection was estimated. Results In total, 2646 patients were included in the analysis. The mean (SD) age was 45.3 (22.5) years; 1203 (46%) were male and 1442 (54%) were female (data were missing for 1); and the overall mortality was 3.7%. The incidence of SARS-CoV-2 cases was higher in neighborhoods with higher household income (β2 [for mean income per household] = 0.197; 95% CI, 0.057-0.351) and greater population density (β1 [inhabitants per km2] = 0.228; 95% CI, 0.085-0.387). Correlations with meteorological variables were not statistically significant. Neighborhood 3, where the hospital and testing facility were located, had the most outbound connections (14). A large residential complex close to the city (neighborhood 20) had the fewest connections (0 outbound and 2 inbound). Five geographically unconnected neighborhoods were of strategic importance in disrupting the transmission network. Conclusions and Relevance This study of local dissemination of SARS-COV-2 revealed nonevident transmission patterns between geographically unconnected areas. The results suggest that tailor-made containment measures could reduce transmission and that hospitals, including testing facilities, play a crucial role in disease transmission. Consequently, the local dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 spread might inform the strategic lockdown of specific neighborhoods to stop the contagion and avoid a citywide lockdown. ; This study was supported by the Innovation, Universities, Science and Digital Society Council through the Valencia Innovation Agency (AVI); grant 851255 from the European Research Council under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (Dr Zanin); grant MDM-2017-0711 from the Spanish State Research Agency through the Severo Ochoa and María de Maeztu Program for Centers and Units of Excellence in Research and Development (Dr Zanin); and from the Universitat de Valencia (Drs Iftimi and Lozano). ; Peer reviewed