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Overall, European air quality has worsened in recent decades as a consequence of increased anthropogenic emissions, in particular from the power generation sector. The evidence of the effects of atmospheric pollution (and particularly fine particulate matter, PM 2.5 ) on human health is now unquestionable; it is mainly associated with cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, along with morbidity and even mortality. These effects may even strengthen in the future as a consequence of climate penalties and future changes in the projected population. For all these reasons, the main objective of this contribution is the estimation of the annual excess premature deaths (PD) associated with PM 2.5 in the present (1991–2010) and future (2031–2050) European population using non-linear exposure–response functions. The endpoints included are lung cancer (LC), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), low respiratory infections (LRI), ischaemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular disease (CEV) and other non-communicable diseases (other NCD). PM 2.5 concentrations come from coupled chemistry–climate regional simulations under present and future (RCP8.5) scenarios. The cases assessed include the estimation of the present incidence of PD (PRE-P2010), the quantification of the role of a changing climate in PD (FUT-P2010) and the importance of changes in the population projected for the year 2050 in the incidence of excess PD (FUT-P2050). Two additional cases (REN80-P2010 and REN80-P2050) evaluate the impact on premature mortality rates of a mitigation scenario in which 80 % of European energy production comes from renewable sources. The results indicate that PM 2.5 accounts for nearly 895 000 (95 % confidence interval (95 % CI) 725 000–1 056 000) annual excess PD over Europe, with IHD being the largest contributor to premature mortality associated with fine particles in both present and future scenarios. The case that isolates the effects of a climate penalty (FUT-P2010) estimates a variation of +0.2 % in mortality rates over the whole domain. However, under this scenario, the incidence of PD over central Europe will benefit from a decrease in PM 2.5 ( −2.2 PD/100 000 inhabitants), while in eastern ( +1.3 PD/100 000 inhabitants) and western ( +0.4 PD/100 000 inhabitants) Europe, PD will increase due to increased PM 2.5 levels. The changes in the projected population (FUT-P2050) will lead to a large increase in annual excess PD (1 540 000, 95 % CI 1 247 000–1 818 000; +71.96 % with respect to PRE-P2010 and +71.67 % with respect to FUT-P2010) due to the ageing of the European population. Last, the mitigation scenario (REN80-P2050) demonstrates that the effects of a mitigation policy of increasing the ratio of renewable sources in the energy mix could lead to a decrease of over 60 000 (95 % CI 48 500–70 900) annual PD for the year 2050 (a decrease of −4 % in comparison with the no-mitigation scenario FUT-P2050). In spite of the uncertainties inherent in future estimations, this contribution reveals the need of governments and public entities to take action and choose air pollution mitigation policies.

Overall, European air quality has worsened in recent decades as a consequence of increased anthropogenic emissions, in particular from the power generation sector. The evidence of the effects of atmospheric pollution (and particularly fine particulate matter, PM2.5) on human health is now unquestionable; it is mainly associated with cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, along with morbidity and even mortality. These effects may even strengthen in the future as a consequence of climate penalties and future changes in the projected population. For all these reasons, the main objective of this contribution is the estimation of the annual excess premature deaths (PD) associated with PM2.5 in the present (1991–2010) and future (2031–2050) European population using non-linear exposure–response functions. The endpoints included are lung cancer (LC), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), low respiratory infections (LRI), ischaemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular disease (CEV) and other non-communicable diseases (other NCD). PM2.5 concentrations come from coupled chemistry–climate regional simulations under present and future (RCP8.5) scenarios. The cases assessed include the estimation of the present incidence of PD (PRE-P2010), the quantification of the role of a changing climate in PD (FUT-P2010) and the importance of changes in the population projected for the year 2050 in the incidence of excess PD (FUT-P2050). Two additional cases (REN80-P2010 and REN80-P2050) evaluate the impact on premature mortality rates of a mitigation scenario in which 80 % of European energy production comes from renewable sources. The results indicate that PM2.5 accounts for nearly 895 000 (95 % confidence interval (95 % CI) 725 000–1 056 000) annual excess PD over Europe, with IHD being the largest contributor to premature mortality associated with fine particles in both present and future scenarios. The case that isolates the effects of a climate penalty (FUT-P2010) estimates a variation of +0.2 % in mortality rates over the whole domain. However, under this scenario, the incidence of PD over central Europe will benefit from a decrease in PM2.5 (−2.2 PD/100 000 inhabitants), while in eastern (+1.3 PD/100 000 inhabitants) and western (+0.4 PD/100 000 inhabitants) Europe, PD will increase due to increased PM2.5 levels. The changes in the projected population (FUT-P2050) will lead to a large increase in annual excess PD (1 540 000, 95 % CI 1 247 000–1 818 000; +71.96 % with respect to PRE-P2010 and +71.67 % with respect to FUT-P2010) due to the ageing of the European population. Last, the mitigation scenario (REN80-P2050) demonstrates that the effects of a mitigation policy of increasing the ratio of renewable sources in the energy mix could lead to a decrease of over 60 000 (95 % CI 48 500–70 900) annual PD for the year 2050 (a decrease of −4 % in comparison with the no-mitigation scenario FUT-P2050). In spite of the uncertainties inherent in future estimations, this contribution reveals the need of governments and public entities to take action and choose air pollution mitigation policies.

Worldwide air quality has worsened in the last decades as a consequence of increased anthropogenic emissions, in particular from the sector of power generation. The evidence of the effects of atmospheric pollution (and particularly fine particulate matter, PM 2.5 ) on human health is unquestionable nowadays, producing mainly cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, morbidity and even mortality. These effects can even enhance in the future as a consequence of climate penalties and future changes in the population projected. Because of all these reasons, the main objective of this contribution is the estimation of annual excess premature deaths (PD) associated to PM 2.5 on present (1991–2010) and future (2031–2050) European population by using non-linear exposure-response functions. The endpoints included are Lung Cancer (LC), Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), Low Respiratory Infections (LRI), Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD), cerebrovascular disease (CEV) and other Non-Communicable Diseases (other NCD). PM 2.5 concentrations come from coupled chemistry-climate regional simulations under present and RCP8.5 future scenarios. The cases assessed include the estimation of the present incidence of PD (PRE-P2010), the quantification of the role of a changing climate on PD (FUT-P2010) and the importance of changes in the population projected for the year 2050 on the incidence of excess PD (FUT-P2050). Two additional cases (REN80-P2010 and REN80-P2050) evaluate the impact on premature mortality rates of a mitigation scenario in which the 80 % of European energy production comes from renewables sources. The results indicate that PM 2.5 accounts for nearly 895,000 [95 % confidence interval (95 % CI) 725,000-1,056,000] annual excess PD over Europe, with IHD being the largest contributor to premature mortality associated to fine particles in both present and future scenarios. The case isolating the effects of climate penalty (FUT-P2010) estimates a variation +0.2 % on mortality rates over the whole domain. However, under this scenario the incidence of PD over central Europe will benefit from a decrease of PM 2.5 (−2.2 PD/100,000 h.) while in eastern (+1.3 PD/100,000 h.) and western (+0.4 PD/100,000 h.) Europe PD will increase due to increased PM 2.5 levels. The changes in the projected population (FUT-P2050) will lead to a large increase of annual excess PD (1,540,000, 95 % CI 1,247,000-1,818,000), +71.96 % with respect to PRE-P2010 and +71.67 % to FUT-P2010) due to the aging of the European population. Last, the mitigation scenario (REN80-P2050) demonstrates that the effects of a mitigation policy increasing the ratio of renewable sources in the energy mix energy could lead to a decrease of over 60,000 (95 % CI 48,500-70,900) annual PD for the year 2050 (a decrease of −4 % in comparison with the no-mitigation scenario, FUT-P2050). In spite of the uncertainties inherent to future estimations, this contribution reveals the need of the governments and public entities to take action and bet for air pollution mitigation policies.

International initiatives have successfully brought down the emissions, and hence also the related negative impacts on environment and human health, from shipping in Emission Control Areas (ECAs). However, the question remains as to whether increased shipping in the future will counteract these emission reductions. The overall goal of this study is to provide an up-to-date view on future ship emissions and provide a holistic view on atmospheric pollutants and their contribution to air quality in the Nordic (and Arctic) area. The first step has been to set up new and detailed scenarios for the potential developments in global shipping emissions, including different regulations and new routes in the Arctic. The scenarios include a Baseline scenario and two additional SOx Emission Control Areas (SECAs) and heavy fuel oil (HFO) ban scenarios. All three scenarios are calculated in two variants involving Business-AsUsual (BAU) and High-Growth (HiG) traffic scenarios. Additionally a Polar route scenario is included with new ship traffic routes in the future Arctic with less sea ice. This has been combined with existing Current Legislation scenarios for the land-based emissions (ECLIPSE V5a) and used as input for two Nordic chemistry transport models (DEHM and MATCH). Thereby, the current (2015) and future (2030, 2050) air pollution levels and the contribution from shipping have been simulated for the Nordic and Arctic areas. Population exposure and the number of premature deaths attributable to air pollution in the Nordic area have thereafter been assessed by using the health assessment model EVA (Economic Valuation of Air pollution). It is estimated that within the Nordic region approximately 9900 persons died prematurely due to air pollution in 2015 (corresponding to approximately 37 premature deaths for every 100 000 inhabitants). When including the projected development in both shipping and land-based emissions, this number is estimated to decrease to approximately 7900 in 2050. Shipping alone is associated with ...

International initiatives have successfully brought down the emissions, and hence also the related negative impacts on environment and human health, from shipping in Emission Control Areas (ECAs). However, the question remains as to whether increased shipping in the future will counteract these emission reductions. The overall goal of this study is to provide an up-to-date view on future ship emissions and provide a holistic view on atmospheric pollutants and their contribution to air quality in the Nordic (and Arctic) area. The first step has been to set up new and detailed scenarios for the potential developments in global shipping emissions, including different regulations and new routes in the Arctic. The scenarios include a Baseline scenario and two additional SO x Emission Control Areas (SECAs) and heavy fuel oil (HFO) ban scenarios. All three scenarios are calculated in two variants involving Business-As-Usual (BAU) and High-Growth (HiG) traffic scenarios. Additionally a Polar route scenario is included with new ship traffic routes in the future Arctic with less sea ice. This has been combined with existing Current Legislation scenarios for the land-based emissions (ECLIPSE V5a) and used as input for two Nordic chemistry transport models (DEHM and MATCH). Thereby, the current (2015) and future (2030, 2050) air pollution levels and the contribution from shipping have been simulated for the Nordic and Arctic areas. Population exposure and the number of premature deaths attributable to air pollution in the Nordic area have thereafter been assessed by using the health assessment model EVA (Economic Valuation of Air pollution). It is estimated that within the Nordic region approximately 9900 persons died prematurely due to air pollution in 2015 (corresponding to approximately 37 premature deaths for every 100 000 inhabitants). When including the projected development in both shipping and land-based emissions, this number is estimated to decrease to approximately 7900 in 2050. Shipping alone is associated with about 850 premature deaths during present-day conditions (as a mean over the two models), decreasing to approximately 600 cases in the 2050 BAU scenario. Introducing a HFO ban has the potential to lower the number of cases associated with emissions from shipping to approximately 550 in 2050, while the SECA scenario has a smaller impact. The "worst-case" scenario of no additional regulation of shipping emissions combined with a high growth in the shipping traffic will, on the other hand, lead to a small increase in the relative impact of shipping, and the number of premature deaths related to shipping is in that scenario projected to be around 900 in 2050. This scenario also leads to increased deposition of nitrogen and black carbon in the Arctic, with potential impacts on environment and climate.

International initiatives have successfully brought down the emissions from shipping in Emission Control Areas (ECAs), and hence the related negative impacts on environment and human health. But the question is if this is enough to mitigate the future increase in shipping activities. The overall goal of this study is to provide an up-to-date view on future ship emissions and provide a holistic view on atmospheric pollutants and its contribution to air quality in the Nordic (and Arctic) area. First step has been to setup new and detailed scenarios for the potential developments in global shipping emissions, including different regulations and new routes in the Arctic. The scenarios include a Baseline scenario, and two additional SO x Emission Control Area (SECA) and heavy fuel oil (HFO) ban scenarios. All three scenarios are calculated in two variants involving Business As Usual (BAU) and High Growth (HiG) traffic growths. Additionally a Polar route scenario is included, with new ship traffic routes in the future Arctic with less sea ice. This has been combined with existing Current Legislation scenarios for the land-based emissions (ECLIPSE V5a) and used as input for two Nordic chemistry-transport models (DEHM and MATCH). Thereby the current (2015) and future (2030, 2050) air pollution levels and the contribution from shipping have been simulated for the Nordic and Arctic areas. Population exposure and the number of premature deaths attributable to air pollution in the Nordic area have thereafter been assessed by using the health assessment model EVA. It is estimated that within the Nordic region, approximately 9900 persons died prematurely due to air pollution in 2015. When including the projected development in both shipping and land-based emissions, this number is estimated to decrease to approximately 7900 in 2050. The shipping alone is associated with about 850 premature deaths during current day conditions (as a mean over the two models), decreasing to approximately 600 cases in the 2050 BAU scenario. Introducing a HFO ban has the potential to lower the number of cases associated with emissions from shipping to approximately 550 in 2050, while the SECA scenario has a smaller impact. The worst case scenario of no additional regulation of shipping emissions combined with a high growth in the shipping traffic, will on the other hand lead to a small increase in the relative impact of shipping and the number of premature deaths related to shipping is in that scenario projected to be around 900 in 2050. This scenario also leads to increased deposition of nitrogen and black carbon in the Arctic, with potential impacts on environment and climate.

International initiatives have successfully brought down the emissions, and hence also the related negative impacts on environment and human health, from shipping in Emission Control Areas (ECAs). However, the question remains as to whether increased shipping in the future will counteract these emission reductions. The overall goal of this study is to provide an up-to-date view on future ship emissions and provide a holistic view on atmospheric pollutants and their contribution to air quality in the Nordic (and Arctic) area. The first step has been to set up new and detailed scenarios for the potential developments in global shipping emissions, including different regulations and new routes in the Arctic. The scenarios include a Baseline scenario and two additional SOx Emission Control Areas (SE-CAs) and heavy fuel oil (HFO) ban scenarios. All three scenarios are calculated in two variants involving Business-As-Usual (BAU) and High-Growth (HiG) traffic scenarios. Additionally a Polar route scenario is included with new ship traffic routes in the future Arctic with less sea ice. This has been combined with existing Current Legislation scenarios for the land-based emissions (ECLIPSE V5a) and used as input for two Nordic chemistry transport models (DEHM and MATCH). Thereby, the current (2015) and future (2030, 2050) air pollution levels and the contribution from shipping have been simulated for the Nordic and Arctic areas. Population exposure and the number of premature deaths attributable to air pollution in the Nordic area have thereafter been assessed by using the health assessment model EVA (Economic Valuation of Air pollution). It is estimated that within the Nordic region approximately 9900 persons died prematurely due to air pollution in 2015 (corresponding to approximately 37 premature deaths for every 100 000 inhabitants). When including the projected development in both shipping and land-based emissions, this number is estimated to decrease to approximately 7900 in 2050. Shipping alone is associated with about 850 premature deaths during present day conditions (as a mean over the two models), decreasing to approximately 600 cases in the 2050 BAU scenario. Introducing a HFO ban has the potential to lower the number of cases associated with emissions from shipping to approximately 550 in 2050, while the SECA scenario has a smaller impact. The "worst-case" scenario of no additional regulation of shipping emissions combined with a high growth in the shipping traffic will, on the other hand, lead to a small increase in the relative impact of shipping, and the number of premature deaths related to shipping is in that scenario projected to be around 900 in 2050. This scenario also leads to increased deposition of nitrogen and black carbon in the Arctic, with potential impacts on environment and climate.

International initiatives have successfully brought down the emissions, and hence also the related negative impacts on environment and human health, from shipping in Emission Control Areas (ECAs). However, the question remains as to whether increased shipping in the future will counteract these emission reductions. The overall goal of this study is to provide an up-to-date view on future ship emissions and provide a holistic view on atmospheric pollutants and their contribution to air quality in the Nordic (and Arctic) area. The first step has been to set up new and detailed scenarios for the potential developments in global shipping emissions, including different regulations and new routes in the Arctic. The scenarios include a Baseline scenario and two additional SOx Emission Control Areas (SECAs) and heavy fuel oil (HFO) ban scenarios. All three scenarios are calculated in two variants involving Business-As-Usual (BAU) and High-Growth (HiG) traffic scenarios. Additionally a Polar route scenario is included with new ship traffic routes in the future Arctic with less sea ice. This has been combined with existing Current Legislation scenarios for the land-based emissions (ECLIPSE V5a) and used as input for two Nordic chemistry transport models (DEHM and MATCH). Thereby, the current (2015) and future (2030, 2050) air pollution levels and the contribution from shipping have been simulated for the Nordic and Arctic areas. Population exposure and the number of premature deaths attributable to air pollution in the Nordic area have thereafter been assessed by using the health assessment model EVA (Economic Valuation of Air pollution). It is estimated that within the Nordic region approximately 9900 persons died prematurely due to air pollution in 2015 (corresponding to approximately 37 premature deaths for every 100 000 inhabitants). When including the projected development in both shipping and land-based emissions, this number is estimated to decrease to approximately 7900 in 2050. Shipping alone is associated with about 850 premature deaths during present-day conditions (as a mean over the two models), decreasing to approximately 600 cases in the 2050 BAU scenario. Introducing a HFO ban has the potential to lower the number of cases associated with emissions from shipping to approximately 550 in 2050, while the SECA scenario has a smaller impact. The "worst-case" scenario of no additional regulation of shipping emissions combined with a high growth in the shipping traffic will, on the other hand, lead to a small increase in the relative impact of shipping, and the number of premature deaths related to shipping is in that scenario projected to be around 900 in 2050. This scenario also leads to increased deposition of nitrogen and black carbon in the Arctic, with potential impacts on environment and climate.

International initiatives have successfully brought down the emissions, and hence also the related negative impacts on environment and human health, from shipping in Emission Control Areas (ECAs). However, the question remains as to whether increased shipping in the future will counteract these emission reductions. The overall goal of this study is to provide an up-to-date view on future ship emissions and provide a holistic view on atmospheric pollutants and their contribution to air quality in the Nordic (and Arctic) area. The first step has been to set up new and detailed scenarios for the potential developments in global shipping emissions, including different regulations and new routes in the Arctic. The scenarios include a Baseline scenario and two additional SOx Emission Control Areas (SE-CAs) and heavy fuel oil (HFO) ban scenarios. All three scenarios are calculated in two variants involving Business-AsUsual (BAU) and High-Growth (HiG) traffic scenarios. Additionally a Polar route scenario is included with new ship traffic routes in the future Arctic with less sea ice. This has been combined with existing Current Legislation scenarios for the land-based emissions (ECLIPSE V5a) and used as input for two Nordic chemistry transport models (DEHM and MATCH). Thereby, the current (2015) and future (2030, 2050) air pollution levels and the contribution from shipping have been simulated for the Nordic and Arctic areas. Population exposure and the number of premature deaths attributable to air pollution in the Nordic area have thereafter been assessed by using the health assessment model EVA (Economic Valuation of Air pollution). It is estimated that within the Nordic region approximately 9900 persons died prematurely due to air pollution in 2015 (corresponding to approximately 37 premature deaths for every 100 000 inhabitants). When including the projected development in both shipping and land-based emissions, this number is estimated to decrease to approximately 7900 in 2050. Shipping alone is associated with about 850 premature deaths during presentday conditions (as a mean over the two models), decreasing to approximately 600 cases in the 2050 BAU scenario. Introducing a HFO ban has the potential to lower the number of cases associated with emissions from shipping to approximately 550 in 2050, while the SECA scenario has a smaller impact. The "worst-case" scenario of no additional regulation of shipping emissions combined with a high growth in the shipping traffic will, on the other hand, lead to a small increase in the relative impact of shipping, and the number of premature deaths related to shipping is in that scenario projected to be around 900 in 2050. This scenario also leads to increased deposition of nitrogen and black carbon in the Arctic, with potential impacts on environment and climate.

The Arctic is warming two to three times faster than the global average, partly due to changes in short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) including aerosols. In order to study the effects of atmospheric aerosols in this warming, recent past (1990–2014) and future (2015–2050) simulations have been carried out using the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model to study the aerosol burdens and their radiative and climate impacts over the Arctic (>60° N), using anthropogenic emissions from the Eclipse V6b and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) databases. Surface aerosol levels, in particular black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO 4 2− ), have been significantly underestimated by more than 50 %, with the smallest biases calculated for the nudged atmosphere-only simulations. CMIP6 simulations performed slightly better in simulating both surface concentrations of aerosols and climate parameters, compared to the Eclipse simulations. In addition, fully-coupled simulations had slightly smaller biases in aerosol levels compared to atmosphere only simulations without nudging. Arctic BC, organic carbon (OC) and SO 4 2− burdens decrease significantly in all simulations following the emission projections, with the CMIP6 ensemble showing larger reductions in Arctic aerosol burdens compared to the Eclipse ensemble. For the 2030–2050 period, both the Eclipse Current Legislation (CLE) and the Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) ensembles simulated an aerosol top of the atmosphere (TOA) forcing of −0.39±0.01 W m −2 , of which −0.24±0.01 W m −2 were attributed to the anthropogenic aerosols. The CMIP6 SSP3-7.0 scenario simulated a TOA aerosol forcing of −0.35 W m −2 for the same period, while SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios simulated a slightly more negative TOA forcing (−0.40 W m −2 ), of which the anthropogenic aerosols accounted for −0.26 W m −2 . Finally, all simulations showed an increase in the Arctic surface air temperatures both throughout the simulation period. In 2050, surface air temperatures are projected to increase by 2.4 °C to 2.6 °C in the Eclipse ensemble and 1.9 °C to 2.6 °C in the CMIP6 ensemble, compared to the 1990–2010 mean. Overall, results show that even the scenarios with largest emission reductions lead to similar impact on the future Arctic surface air temperatures compared to scenarios with smaller emission reductions, while scenarios no or little mitigation leads to much larger sea-ice loss, implying that even though the magnitude of aerosol reductions lead to similar responses in surface air temperatures, high mitigation of aerosols are still necessary to limit sea-ice loss.

An accurate simulation of the absorption properties is key for assessing the radiative effects of aerosol on meteorology and climate. The representation of how chemical species are mixed inside the particles (the mixing state) is one of the major uncertainty factors in the assessment of these effects. Here we compare aerosol optical properties simulations over Europe and North America, coordinated in the framework of the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII), to 1 year of AERONET sunphotometer retrievals, in an attempt to identify a mixing state representation that better reproduces the observed single scattering albedo and its spectral variation. We use a single post-processing tool (FlexAOD) to derive aerosol optical properties from simulated aerosol speciation profiles, and focus on the absorption enhancement of black carbon when it is internally mixed with more scattering material, discarding from the analysis scenes dominated by dust. We found that the single scattering albedo at 440nm (omega(0,440)) is on average overestimated (underestimated) by 3-5% when external (core-shell internal) mixing of particles is assumed, a bias comparable in magnitude with the typical variability of the quantity. The (unphysical) homogeneous internal mixing assumption underestimates omega(0,440) by 14%. The combination of external and core-shell configurations (partial internal mixing), parameterized using a simplified function of air mass aging, reduces the omega(0,440) bias to-1/-3%. The black carbon absorption enhancement (E-abs) in core-shell with respect to the externally mixed state is in the range 1.8-2.5, which is above the currently most accepted upper limit of 1.5. The partial internal mixing reduces E-abs to values more consistent with this limit. However, the spectral dependence of the absorption is not well reproduced, and the absorption Angstrom exponent AAE(675)(440) is overestimated by 70-120%. Further testing against more comprehensive campaign data, including a ...