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The Belgian insurance industry was adversely affected by the global financial crisis and continued to confront challenges related to legacy assets and economic uncertainties in Europe. The Belgian authorities have made significant progress in updating the insurance regulatory regime and supervisory practice. The updated regulatory framework has a high level of observance with the Insurance Core Principles (ICPs), supported by robust prudential supervision. The authorities are advised to review current conduct-of-business (CoB) regulation and supervision to strengthen the protection for policyholders

This paper discusses two ways of evaluating the quasi-fiscal deficit (QFD) and the link between them. It also suggests how to properly account for the QFD when calculating the overall deficit of the public sector. Finally, using an example of the energy market, it shows how to untangle a web of mutual nonpayments and properly evaluate the QFD generated in a sector characterized by the presence of both private and public agents

Cover -- CONTENTS -- ECONOMIC RECOVERY AND CREDIT GROWTH: THE CASE OF CROATIA -- A. Introduction -- B. Why Was the Post GFC-Recovery in Croatia Different to Peers? -- C. The Relationship Between GDP Growth and Credit Growth -- D. Factors Influencing Bank Credit -- E. General Policy Implications -- References -- FIGURES -- 1. Europe and Croatia: GDP Growth and Bank Credit to the Private Sector -- 2. Croatia and Emerging Europe: Performance Relative to Projection Paths -- APPENDICES -- I. Country Groups -- II. Private Sector Deleveraging in Croatia -- III. Selective Regressions -- IV. The Croatian Banking System and Its Euroization -- V. Lending Surveys: Credit Demand or Credit Supply? -- VI. Resolution of Non-Performing Bank Loans.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- MONETARY POLICY AFTER THE EXCHANGE RATE FLOOR EXIT -- A. Background -- B. Policy Objectives and Uncertainty -- C. Model and Benchmark Scenario -- D. Alternative Scenarios -- E. Minimizing Policy Errors -- F. Conclusion -- FIGURES -- 1. Benchmark Scenario -- 2. Higher Direct Pass-Through -- 3. Stronger Cost-Push (Pull) Effect -- 4. Stronger RER Trend Appreciation -- 5. Combined Shock -- 6. Monetary Policy is Ex-post Too Tight (Type II Policy Error) -- 7. Monetary Policy is Ex-post Too Loose (Type I Policy Error) -- ANNEX -- I. Model Specifications.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- PUBLIC INVESTMENT, EFFICIENCY AND GROWTH: THE CASE OF MOLDOVA -- A. Introduction -- B. Public Investment and Capital Stock in Moldova -- C. Infrastructure Coverage and Quality -- D. Public Investment Scale Up and Growth -- E. Improving Public Investment Efficiency -- F. Conclusion -- References -- BOX -- 1. Key Features of the Debt Investment and Growth Model -- FIGURES -- 1. Real Public Capital Stock -- 2. Financing of Public Investment by Sectors -- 3a. Infrastructure Coverage -- 3b. Infrastructure Quality -- 4a. Impact from Foreign Financing Interruption -- 4b. Impact from Absorptive Capacity Restraint -- 4c. Impact from Higher Efficiency.

Cover -- Contents -- Preface -- Abbreviations -- Europe: Country Groups -- Executive Summary -- 1. Europe's Economy Hitting Its Stride -- Growth Is Moving into a Higher Gear -- Slack Is Disappearing -- Inflationary Pressures Are Beginning to Pick Up -- The Credit Recovery Is Catching Up with the Real Recovery -- The European Recovery Is Spilling Over to the Rest of the World -- External Conditions and Macroeconomic Policies Will Support Growth -- Growth Is Projected to Stay Strong -- Less Downside Risk in the Short Term, but Not in the Medium Term -- Policy Priorities -- Structural Policy and European Monetary Union Architechture -- References -- 2. Reforming the Judiciary: Learning from the Experience of Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe -- Why Focus on Judicial Reforms? -- How to Analyze Institutional Quality: Conceptual Framework -- Country Case Studies -- Evolution of the Effectiveness of CESEE Justice Systems and Property Rights Protection -- Main Findings -- Conclusion -- Annex 2.1. Institutions: Literature Review -- Annex 2.2. Indicators and Sources -- Annex 2.3. Econometric Analysis: Additional Results -- References -- 3. Banking Challenges in the Western Balkans: Prospects and Challenges -- The Boom and Bust -- Looking Ahead -- Policy Recommendations -- Expand Funding Bases -- Tackle Nonbank Structural Obstacles to Credit -- Annex 3.1. Estimating Fundamentals-Consistent Levels of Credit -- Annex 3.2. Impact of Global and Local Regulatory Changes -- Annex 3.3. Contributions of Supply versus Demand Factors to Credit Growth -- Annex 3.4. The Macroeconomic and Bank-Specific Determinants of Nonperforming Loans -- References -- Boxes -- 1.1 What Is behind the Euro Appreciation against the US Dollar since Early 2017? -- 2.1 Institutions and Economic Outcomes -- 2.2 The Process of European Union Membership and the Rule of Law.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- WHAT EXPLAINS LITHUANIA'S LOW TAX-GDP RATIO? -- A. Tax Revenue Performance Relative to the EU -- B. Underlying Reasons for Tax Revenue Underperformance -- C. Quantification of Contributions to Tax Revenue Underperformance -- D. Conclusions and Recommendations -- REFERENCES -- BOX -- 1. Estimating the Effective Statutory Tax Rate -- FIGURES -- 1. Tax Revenues in EU countries, 2015 -- 2. Tax Revenues, 2000-15 -- 3. Tax Structure in Lithuania and the EU, 2015 -- 4. Labor Share of Income, 2012-15 -- TABLES -- 1. Current Taxes on Income and Wealth, 2015 -- 2. Production and Import Taxes in Europe, 2015 -- 3. Social Security Contributions in Europe, 2015 -- 4. Lithuania's Tax Revenue Underperformance, 2015 -- 5. Tax Rates in Europe, 2015 -- 6. Tax Exemptions in Europe, 2015 -- 7. VAT Exemptions in Europe, 2016 -- 8. VAT Compliance Gap, 2015 -- 9. Tax Administration Indicators in Europe, 2013 -- 10. Effective Statutory Tax Rates, 2015 -- 11. Contributions to Lithuania's Tax Underperformance Relative to the EU, 2015 -- LITHUANIA'S INNOVATION SYSTEM AND PROPOSALS FOR REFORM-LEARNING FROM THE EXPERIENCE OF ISRAEL -- A. Innovation Performance -- B. Innovation Policies -- C. Conclusions and Recommendations -- REFERENCES -- FIGURES -- 1. Summary Innovation Index -- 2. Aggregate and Public R&D Expenditure, 1996-2014 -- 3. R&D Expenditure and Financing -- 4. Indicators of Scientific Innovation, 2013 -- 5. Non-Scientific Innovation, 2015 -- 6. Overview of Lithuania's Research and Innovation System, 2016 -- 7. Overview of Israel's Research and Innovation System -- 8. Innovation Promotion Programs and Their Funding under the 2014-20 MFF -- TABLE -- 1. Innovation Index Comparison -- ANNEXES -- I. Objectives and Targets of the Lithuania Innovation Promotion Program 2014-20 -- II. Institutional Setup of Lithuania's Innovation System.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- CONTEXT -- RECENT DEVELOPMENTS -- PROGRAM PERFORMANCE -- POLICY DISCUSSIONS -- A. Outlook and Risks -- B. Ensuring Fiscal Sustainability and Implementing Structural Fiscal Reforms -- C. Safeguarding Financial Stability and Unlocking Credit -- D. Advancing Structural Reforms -- PROGRAM DESIGN AND RISKS -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- FIGURES -- 1. Output and Growth Developments -- 2. Price Developments -- 3. External Developments -- 4. Fiscal Developments -- 5. Financial Developments -- TABLES -- 1. Basic Indicators and Macroeconomic Framework, 2013-19

Cover -- CONTENTS -- INTRODUCTION -- ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK -- A. Emerging from Crisis After a Sharp Adjustment of External and Internal Imbalances -- B. Outlook and Risks: A Nascent Recovery, but Risks Loom Large -- POLICY DISCUSSIONS: FROM STABILIZATION TO SUSTAINABLE GROWTH -- A. Fiscal Policy -- B. Energy Sector Policies -- C. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy -- D. Financial Sector Policy -- E. Structural Reforms -- PROGRAM FINANCING AND MODALITIES -- A. Program Financing -- B. Exceptional Access Criteria -- C. Capacity to Repay the Fund and Risks to the Program

Cover -- CONTENTS -- Glossary -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -- INTRODUCTION -- INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK -- A. Institutional Setting -- B. Domestic Coordination and Cooperation -- C. Cross-Border Coordination and Cooperation -- CRISIS PREPAREDNESS -- A. Financial Stability Assessment and Contingency Planning -- B. Strengthening Banks' Loss Absorption Capacity -- C. Recovery and Resolution Planning -- EARLY INTERVENTION AND RESOLUTION TRIGGERS -- A. Early Intervention -- B. Triggers for Entry into Resolution -- CRISIS MANAGEMENT -- A. Scope of Resolution Regime -- B. Resolution Powers and Safeguards

Cover -- CONTENTS -- RECENT DEVELOPMENTS, OUTLOOK, AND RISKS -- PROGRAM OBJECTIVES AND POLICY DISCUSSIONS -- A. Structural Reforms to Boost Growth and Create Jobs -- B. Employing Fiscal Policy to Support Growth While Ensuring Sustainability -- C. Safeguarding Financial Stability While Promoting Credit Growth -- PROGRAM MODALITIES AND RISKS -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- BOX -- 1. BiH: Improving National Policy Coordination -- FIGURES -- 1. BiH: Recent Developments -- 2. BiH: Program Objective, Key Policy Areas and Key Measures -- TABLES

Cover -- CONTENTS -- POLICY OPTIONS TO MITIGATE THE IMPACT OF ADVERSE DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENTS -- A. Portugal's Population is Projected to Shrink over the Medium and Long Run -- B. Adverse Demographic Changes Will Pose Significant Fiscal Challenges -- C. Policy Options to Mitigate the Fiscal Impact of Portugal's Shrinking Population -- D. Conclusions -- BOXES -- 1. Projection Methodology -- 2. Differences with the European Commission 2015 Ageing Report -- 3. Decomposition of Age-Related Spending - Methodology for Sensitivity Tests -- FIGURES -- 1. Demographic Developments

Cover Page -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Contents -- APPENDICES -- TABLES -- FIGURES -- BOX -- CONTEXT -- 1. Real Sector -- 2. Private Sector Balance Sheet -- 3. External Sector -- 4. Social Expenditure and Labor Market Outcomes -- 5. Fiscal Developments and Medium-Term Projections -- 6. Financial Sector -- 1. Selected Economic Indicators, 2010-20 -- 2. Balance of Payments, 2010-20 -- 3. General Government Statement of Operations, 2010-20 -- 4. General Government Consolidated Balance Sheet, 2006-13 -- 5. Structure of the Financial System, 2009-14 -- 6. Financial Soundness Indicators of the Banking Sector, 2009-14 -- 7. Banking Sector Balance Sheet -- OUTLOOK AND RISKS -- POLICY DISCUSSIONS -- A. Strengthening Potential Growth and Competitiveness -- B. Raising Employment Rates -- 1. Main Reforms of Unemployment Benefits and Pension Announced by the New Government -- C. Placing Fiscal Policy on a Path of Steady Adjustment -- D. Seeking a More Efficient Tax System -- E. Continuous Adjustment in the Financial Sector -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- I. External Sector Assessment -- II. Risk Assessment Matrix -- III. Main Recommendations of the 2014 Article IV -- IV. Labor Market and Pension Reform Measures -- V. Debt Sustainability Analysis -- Footnotes -- Belgium: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report -- and Press Release -- IMF Executive Board Concludes 2015 Article IV Consultation with Belgium