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The scale and patterns of household consumption are important determinants of environmental impacts. Whilst affluence has been shown to have a strong correlation with environmental impact, they do not necessarily grow at the same rate. Given the apparent contradiction between the sustainable development goals of economic growth and environmental protection, it is important to understand the effect of rising affluence and concurrent changing consumption patterns on future environmental impacts. Here we develop an econometric demand model based on the data available from a global multiregional input-output dataset. We model future household consumption following scenarios of population and GDP growth for 49 individual regions. The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions resulting from the future household demand is then explored both with and without consideration of the change in expenditure over time on different consumption categories. Compared to a baseline scenario where final demand grows in line with the 2011 average consumption pattern up until 2030, we find that changing consumer preferences with increasing affluence has a small negative effect on global cumulative GHG emissions. The differences are more profound on both a regional and a product level. For the demand model scenario, we find the largest decrease in GHG emissions for the BRICS and other developing countries, while emissions in North America and the EU remain unchanged. Decreased spending and resulting emissions on food are cancelled out by increased spending and emissions on transportation. Despite relatively small global differences between the scenarios, the regional and sectoral wedges indicate that there is a large untapped potential in environmental policies and lifestyle changes that can complement the technological transition towards a low-emitting society. ; publishedVersion

The scale and patterns of household consumption are important determinants of environmental impacts. Whilst affluence has been shown to have a strong correlation with environmental impact, they do not necessarily grow at the same rate. Given the apparent contradiction between the sustainable development goals of economic growth and environmental protection, it is important to understand the effect of rising affluence and concurrent changing consumption patterns on future environmental impacts. Here we develop an econometric demand model based on the data available from a global multiregional input-output dataset. We model future household consumption following scenarios of population and GDP growth for 49 individual regions. The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions resulting from the future household demand is then explored both with and without consideration of the change in expenditure over time on different consumption categories. Compared to a baseline scenario where final demand grows in line with the 2011 average consumption pattern up until 2030, we find that changing consumer preferences with increasing affluence has a small negative effect on global cumulative GHG emissions. The differences are more profound on both a regional and a product level. For the demand model scenario, we find the largest decrease in GHG emissions for the BRICS and other developing countries, while emissions in North America and the EU remain unchanged. Decreased spending and resulting emissions on food are cancelled out by increased spending and emissions on transportation. Despite relatively small global differences between the scenarios, the regional and sectoral wedges indicate that there is a large untapped potential in environmental policies and lifestyle changes that can complement the technological transition towards a low-emitting society.

The scale and patterns of household consumption are important determinants of environmental impacts. Whilst affluence has been shown to have a strong correlation with environmental impact, they do not necessarily grow at the same rate. Given the apparent contradiction between the sustainable development goals of economic growth and environmental protection, it is important to understand the effect of rising affluence and concurrent changing consumption patterns on future environmental impacts. Here we develop an econometric demand model based on the data available from a global multiregional input-output dataset. We model future household consumption following scenarios of population and GDP growth for 49 individual regions. The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions resulting from the future household demand is then explored both with and without consideration of the change in expenditure over time on different consumption categories. Compared to a baseline scenario where final demand grows in line with the 2011 average consumption pattern up until 2030, we find that changing consumer preferences with increasing affluence has a small negative effect on global cumulative GHG emissions. The differences are more profound on both a regional and a product level. For the demand model scenario, we find the largest decrease in GHG emissions for the BRICS and other developing countries, while emissions in North America and the EU remain unchanged. Decreased spending and resulting emissions on food are cancelled out by increased spending and emissions on transportation. Despite relatively small global differences between the scenarios, the regional and sectoral wedges indicate that there is a large untapped potential in environmental policies and lifestyle changes that can complement the technological transition towards a low-emitting society. ; publishedVersion

As climate policy needs to address all feasible ways to reduce carbon emissions, there is an increasing focus on demand-side solutions. Studies of household carbon footprints have allocated emissions during production to the consumption of the produced goods, and provided an understanding of what products and consumer actions cause significant emissions. Social scientists have investigated how attitudes, social norms, and structural factors shape salient behavior. Yet, there is often a disconnect as emission reductions through individual actions in the important domains of housing and mobility are challenging to attain due to lock-ins and structural constraints. Furthermore, most behavioral research focuses on actions that are easy to trace but of limited consequence as a share of total emissions. Here we study specific alternative consumption patterns seeking both to understand the behavioral and structural factors that determine those patterns and to quantify their effect on carbon footprints. We do so utilizing a survey on consumer behavioral, attitudinal, contextual and socio-demographic factors in four different regions in the EU. Some differences occur in terms of the driving forces behind behaviors and their carbon intensities. Based on observed differences in mobility carbon footprints across households, we find that the key determining element to reduced emissions is settlement density, while car ownership, rising income and long distances are associated with higher mobility footprints. For housing, our results indicate that changes in dwelling standards and larger household sizes may reduce energy needs and the reliance on fossil fuels. However, there remains a strong need for incentives to reduce the carbon intensity of heating and air travel. We discuss combined effects and the role of policy in overcoming structural barriers in domains where consumers as individuals have limited agency.

While the EU Commission has encouraged Member States to combine national and international climate change mitigation measures with subnational environmental policies, there has been little harmonized effort towards the quantification of embodied greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from household consumption across European regions. This study develops an inventory of carbon footprints associated with household consumption for 177 regions in 27 EU countries, thus, making a key contribution for the incorporation of consumption-based accounting into local decision-making. Footprint calculations are based on consumer expenditure surveys and environmental and trade detail from the EXIOBASE 2.3 multiregional input-output database describing the world economy in 2007 at the detail of 43 countries, 5 rest-of-the-world regions and 200 product sectors. Our analysis highlights the spatial heterogeneity of embodied GHG emissions within multiregional countries with subnational ranges varying widely between 0.6 and 6.5 tCO2e/cap. The significant differences in regional contribution in terms of total and per capita emissions suggest notable differences with regards to climate change responsibility. The study further provides a breakdown of regional emissions by consumption categories (e.g. housing, mobility, food). In addition, our region-level study evaluates driving forces of carbon footprints through a set of socio-economic, geographic and technical factors. Income is singled out as the most important driver for a region's carbon footprint, although its explanatory power varies significantly across consumption domains. Additional factors that stand out as important on the regional level include household size, urban-rural typology, level of education, expenditure patterns, temperature, resource availability and carbon intensity of the electricity mix. The lack of cross-national region-level studies has so far prevented analysts from drawing broader policy conclusions that hold beyond national and regional borders. ; publishedVersion ; Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.