Search results

We analyse potential sources of internal imbalances, specifically as regards private and public indebtedness. The combination of a high public debt and increasing private sector indebtedness have been a source of concern in the perspective of the funding of the economy in examined countries. We utilize the detailed financial accounts as an analytical framework for revealing the development of private sector's indebtedness in 18 EU countries in the period 1995-2012. Ratio of private debt (non-financial corporations, households and non-profit institutions serving households) to GDP was steadily increasing till 2009 with a decrease in the following years. After the decomposition of the private sector debt several facts stand out. Highly indebted, on the average, are households in Denmark and The Netherlands. Postsocialist countries have still low indebtedness, but are catching up. In panel regressions (fixed effects) the dependent variable is overlapping two-and free-year forward looking averages. The control variables are those usually used in growth equations a la R. Barro. We have utilised also instrumental variables (Pooled IV Two-stage EGLS) and 3 years averages for all variables to capture medium-run impacts. Having analysed the impacts of different private debt variables on the growth rate of real GDP we assert that the impact has been negative and statistically significant in almost all growth regressions. Adapted from the source document.

Starting from endogenous growth models we test the impacts of both taxes (distortionary and non-distortionary) and expenditures (taking into account economic and functional classification of general government expenditure) using the government constraint. We do not neglect the implicit financing assumptions built into the specification of regression utilising both control and fiscal variables. Static and dynamic panel analysis (fixed effects model) of the 25 EU countries covers the period 1995-2008 for the majority of observations. Forward looking moving averages of the growth rate of GDP (2-5 years) are the dependent variable. We find that productive government expenditure supports growth, whilst non-productive expenditure, especially social protection (COFOG) or social payments (Amoco) does not. Distortionary and indirect taxes reduce economic growth. Adapted from the source document.