Introduction
In: PS: political science & politics, Band 50, Heft 3, S. 681-682
ISSN: 1537-5935
43 Ergebnisse
Sortierung:
In: PS: political science & politics, Band 50, Heft 3, S. 681-682
ISSN: 1537-5935
In: PS: political science & politics, Band 46, Heft 3, S. 477-478
ISSN: 1537-5935
In the past 40 years an extensive literature has grown up around aggregate political economy models of elections, but few articles have focused on the German case. Initially, Kirchgässner (1977; 1991), developed vote-popularity (VP) functions, with the unemployment rate as the dominant economic variable predicting the German ruling parties' performance. Thereafter, using vote functions (VF) from 1961 to 1994, Jérôme, Jérôme-Speziari, and Lewis-Beck (2001) tested the "yardstick" competition existing between French and German economic votes.
In: PS: political science & politics, Band 46, Heft 3, S. 477-478
ISSN: 0030-8269, 1049-0965
SSRN
Working paper
In: PS: political science & politics, Band 55, Heft 1, S. 249-249
ISSN: 1537-5935
In: Journal of social and economic development, Band 19, Heft 2, S. 245-262
ISSN: 2199-6873
In: French politics, Band 10, Heft 4, S. 373-377
ISSN: 1476-3427
In: French politics, Band 10, Heft 4, S. 373-377
ISSN: 1476-3419
World Affairs Online
SSRN
Working paper
In: Canadian journal of political science: CJPS = Revue canadienne de science politique, Band 43, Heft 1, S. 163-186
ISSN: 1744-9324
Résumé.Prévoir le vote en tant que révélation des préférences des citoyens dans les choix collectifs permet d'évaluer les chances de succès des sortants ou de l'opposition et d'anticiper les politiques publiques futures. Dans cet article, nous donnons une prévision de l'élection présidentielle de 2007 en France à partir d'une fonction de vote mobilisant les apports de la théorie des choix publics et de la science politique des comportements électoraux. Les prévisions générées au niveau territorial sont plus pertinentes pour le second tour que pour le premier tour. Nous offrons quelques éléments d'explication et des pistes d'amélioration pour 2012.Abstract.Forecasting votes understood as citizens revealed preferences in collective choices allow to evaluate electoral success opportunities both for incumbents and opposition and to anticipate future public policies. In this paper, we provide forecasts for the 2007 French presidential election gathering contributions from Public Choice theory and Political science dealing with electoral behaviors. Forecasts generated at a sub-national level exhibit more accuracy at the second round than at the first one. We propose some explanation and improvements for 2012.
In: Canadian journal of political science: CJPS = Revue canadienne de science politique : RCSP, Band 43, Heft 1, S. 163-187
ISSN: 0008-4239
In: European Journal of Political Economy, Band 21, Heft 4, S. 1085-1092
In: French politics, Band 3, Heft 2, S. 142-163
ISSN: 1476-3427
In: French politics, Band 1, Heft 2, S. 247-251
ISSN: 1476-3427