Suchergebnisse

NEW ZEALAND, A FORMER SETTLER COLONY, PRIVIDES US WITH A LONG-ESTABLISHED EXAMPLE OF TRANSFERENCE OF THE WESTMINISTER MODEL, IN ALMOST IDEAL CONDITIONS WHICH SERVES TO ILLUSTRATE BOTH THE STRENGTHS AND THE WEAKNESSES OF THE SYSTEM. THIS ARTICLE EXAMINES NEW ZEALAND'S POLITICAL PARTIES, RACE ISSUES, MAORI SEATS, MAJORITARIANISM, AND REFERENDA. IT SUGGESTS THAT THE POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT OF NEW ZEALAND FROM COLONY TO INDEPENDENT STATE SHOULD BE CATEGORIZED INTO THREE PHASES--TRANSFORMATION, CONSOLIDATION AND ADAPTATION.

This paper explores the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), in terms of changes in trade costs on trade and consumer welfare in China, the EU, and the rest of the World. We employ a general equilibrium structural gravity approach and conduct a counterfactual analysis. Our key findings are as follows: (i) China and the EU are expected to make substantial gains from the BRI due to reductions in transport costs (ii) signing and implementing a deep FTA between China and the EU is equivalent to transport cost reductions of 15-20 percent (iii) the joint policy of the BRI and FTA is super-additive, magnifying the gains from the separate policies (iv) where transport cost reductions are 20 percent or more, the potential negative effect of the China-US trade war on China is more than compensated for by the BRI initiative. Our results provide evidence that the BRI has the potential to deliver significant welfare gains, particularly if combined with other trade integration schemes, and to counterbalance aggressive trade policies.

As the EU and UK negotiate a new relationship, this paper explores the welfare implications of this policy change and its interaction with major trade policy initiatives. We evaluate five Brexit scenarios, based on different assumptions regarding Brexit, TTIP and various free trade deals the UK may attempt to broker with the US or Commonwealth countries. We also consider the dynamics of welfare changes over a period of two decades. Our estimates suggest that the impact of Brexit is negative in all policy scenarios, with lower welfare losses under a soft Brexit scenario. The losses are exacerbated if TTIP comes into force, demonstrating the benefits of being a member of a large trade bloc. However, they occur gradually and can be partially compensated by signing new free trade agreements. To further minimise losses, the UK should avoid a hard Brexit.