Suchergebnisse

Si la Chine n'est entrée à l'Organisation mondiale du commerce (OMC) qu'à la fin 2001, elle s'y est préparée pendant de longues années et son adhésion a marqué l'apogée de trois décennies de réformes qui ont accompagné l'ouverture. Avec l'adhésion, les réformes se sont poursuivies à un rythme rapide. La Chine a ainsi fait baisser de façon spectaculaire ses droits de douane et pris des mesures de libéralisation dans l'agriculture, l'industrie et les services. L'accord sur les services est même considéré comme la libéralisation la plus radicale jamais négociée par l'OMC. En conséquence, le processus d'ajustement de l'économie chinoise va se poursuivre. Les ménages urbains ont été les principaux bénéficiaires de ces évolutions, alors que les plus pauvres, concentrés dans les zones rurales, subissent les coûts de la transition qui appellent des mesures correctrices de la part du gouvernement.

Bien que les opposants à la guerre contre l'Irak aient déjà conclu à l'absence d'armes de destruction massive et évoquent la faillite des services de renseignements, le fait que l'on n'ait rien découvert à ce jour ne prouve nullement que ces armes n'aient pas existé. Mais plusieurs facteurs rendent l'éclaircissement du dossier plutôt difficile. Les déclarations des scientifiques irakiens reflètent encore la ligne de l'ancien régime, ce mélange de déni et de fraude dont les inspecteurs des Nations unies ont si souvent fait les frais depuis 1991, et qui s'est tant de fois révélé mensonger. Il est vrai que les conditions de sécurité dans le pays ne sont pas assez bonnes pour qu'ils puissent parler librement. Et le comportement des Irakiens avant la guerre en ce qui concerne les armes chimiques et biologiques n'est absolument pas cohérent avec ce que l'on aurait pu attendre d'un pays n'ayant rien à cacher. Comme ce fut le cas naguère d'avions de chasse ou de missiles prohibés, la clef de l'énigme se trouve peut-être dans les sables du désert irakien.

Managing Capital Inflows by Barry BOSWORTH The paper examines the external balance of the Chinese economy and the reliance on fixed exchange rate regime It is argued that the focus on the alleged misalignment of the yuan is misplaced Despite an American focus on large bilateral trade imbalance China actually has only small overall current account surplus Instead problem is an excess of capital inflows given its own extremely high lev els of domestic saving Those inflows threaten to overwhelm capital markets and risk speculative bubble of domestic asset prices An exchange rate adjustment would have significant effects of trade flows but it is not the appropriate response to an excess of financial inflows Instead the paper addresses several alternative means of recycling the excess finance back into the global economy

La question des armes biologiques irakiennes est aussi délicate aujourd'hui qu'il y a une quinzaine d'années. S'il est certain que l'Irak a développé un tel programme des les années 1980, ce fait n'a été reconnu par Bagdad qu'après la guerre du Golfe, en 1991, durant la première inspection de l'UNSCOM. Mais celle-ci, qui poursuivit son travail jusqu'en 1998, ne put faire toute la lumière ni sur le sort des stocks d'armes ou d'agents biologiques connus ou soupçonnés, ni sur les capacités techniques, humaines ou logistiques conservées par l'Irak en dépit des contrôles. La situation ne s'est guère éclaircie jusqu'à la reprise des inspections, fin 2002, par l'UNMOVIC, et les quelques mois durant lesquels elle put faire son travail, avant la guerre de mars 2003, furent loin d'apporter toutes les réponses aux questions pendantes. Les non-découvertes du groupe d'inspection en Irak, si elles permettent d'espérer que Ut politique de containment de la communauté internationale ait été efficace, ne donnent pas l'absolue garantie que cela soit vraiment le cas.

Après la morosité des années 1990, l'économie russe a montré des signes significatifs de redressement, dus à la combinaison de politiques monétaires et budgétaires prudentes, d'une conjoncture mondiale favorable, de la dévaluation du rouble et de réformes structurelles judicieuses. Toutefois, de sérieuses faiblesses demeurent, comme la trop grande dépendance vis-à-vis de l'énergie, le report de réformes essentielles et la place trop importante du secteur public. De ce fait, le niveau d'investissement direct étranger est resté très insuffisant, malgré une tendance récente à la hausse. Mais l'arrestation de Mikhaïl Khodorkovsky, en octobre 2003, a suscité de grandes interrogations quant à la modernisation politique et économique du pays. Et en dépit des assurances données par Vladimir Poutine et de résultats macroéconomiques encore favorables, le doute habite maintenant le monde des affaires quant à la viabilité du nouveau modèle russe.

Evolution of Conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa, by Tom PORTEOUS
The evolution of conflicts in Africa is inséparable from the political processes of transition and transformation that have been taking place in African societies since decolonisation. In the 1990s, the withdrawal of Cold War super-power patronage and international pressure on Africa to libéralise both economically and politically led to a spate of new conflicts which were above ail symptomatic of the weaknesses of African states now exposed to fresh shocks and pressures. The principle characteristics of these wars include the extraordinary regionalization of conflicts, the multiplicity of belligerents and other actors, the range and mutability of political and economie motivations, and the brutal strategies employed. But conflict resolution has not been helped by a tendency to see conflict in the narrow context of development and humanitarian goals. A broader political perspective is required. There are signs of a reduction of conflict in Africa over the past couple of years, a consequence of a new détermination by some African and Western leaders to take a more holistic approach. But real challenges lie ahead, including the impact of HIV/AIDS, and shifting Western policy in the wake of 9/11 and the war in Iraq.

Reinventing the West, by Dominique MOÏSI
The divisions between Europe and America, as well as within Europe itself, took a turn in 2003 which bodes ill for the future, both in terms of the future of transatlantic relations and in terms of world stability and security. Perspectives for the world will not be improved if Europe unites against the United States or if the latter turns away from the Old Continent. The world would on the contrary be a more dangerous place. It is thus urgent to reinvent the West, a united and renewed West, aware of the differences within it as well as of the common values it holds. This West must show the rest of the world that it can act in a positive fashion with concrete results in order to improve the situation, in particular with regard to the regions most torn apart by war and poverty as is the case in the Middle East and Africa.

Peacekeeping: New Challenges for the UNO and the Security Council, by Jean-Marie GUÉHENNO
As crises unfold in Africa and Asia, the international community's reactions range from robust intervention to mere indifférence. However, robust intervention is associated with the deployment of troops from the North under the flag of NATO or coalitions of the willing, while the establishment of UN peacekeeping operations, primarily with troops from the South, falls one step short of indifference. Despite relatively scarce resources, UN peacekeeping underwent a dramatic reform and has achieved many successes over the last few years. Security Council Member States have a special responsibility in lending their support and providing UN peacekeeping with the highly qualified troops and spécialised! assets it requires: this is essential in order to confront the new challenges in failed States. French Operation Licorne in Côte d'Ivoire and EU Operation Artemis in the Congo are good examples of North countries' renewed involvement in Africa. But there would be advantages in envisaging future deployments under the Blue Helmet, as a testimony of increased solidarity with the South, as a way of assisting the Security Council in being more united in action.

China on its Way towards Reforms: Economie Metamorphosis or Political Suicide, by Jonathan STORY
China is sleep-walking towards becoming a market democracy. The argument here is that the CCP is in metamorphosis, verbally committed to continuity, but in effect committing slow political suicide by changing its inner nature while discarding its outer skin. Membership in 2002 of the WTO in effect places Western norms at the heart of China's business System, while we may expect the introduction of discrete changes in political norms of the CCP in the run up to the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games.

Beyond Appearances or the Slow Progress of ESPD, by Jolyon HOWORTH
Three challenges faced the EU's security and defence ambitions in the wake of the 2003 Iraq War: consolidation of the security zone around its emerging borders; re-forging its own internal unity in light of the Transatlantic crisis; and tailoring its military capacity to the new threats of the 21st century. Despite numerous stabilisation initiatives directed at its Balkan, Mediterranean, South Eastern and Eastern neighbours, and the elaboration of a major Neighbourhood Policy document, much work still needed to be done to address the fundamental problem of reconciling cooperation with exclusion. The Franco-British meltdown over Iraq, which had allowed the US to corral EU member states into "old" and "new" European camps, threatened at first to deepen internal European rifts. Such an outcome was avoided late in 2003 when the UK, Germany and France re-prioritised the requirements of a viable and united ESDP. On the third challenge, the EU succeeded in its first ever military missions under an EU flag. But it failed to address the issue of how to reconcile the military requirements of peace-keeping operations with those of the war on terror.

France, NATO and European Security: Status Quo Unsustainable, New Balance Unattainable? , by Jolyon HOWORTH
Between 1947 and 1997, that is fifty years, France's search for a new balance between Europe and the United States has been more or less in vain. It was necessary to wait for a warming of relations between Paris and London, at the same time as the war in Bosnia, and the Saint-Malo declaration, which seemed to announce a revolution in transatlantic relations, for this French ambition to come about. But if Paris and London were agreed on the prin-ciple of balance, there were not at all in accord over its content or putting in place. And the advent of the Bush administration and September 11 have overturned the structures and concepts of the Alliance. It is in this context that France, while reinforcing its military capacities, is opposed to the new US doctrine of pre-emptive war and is making use of its status as member of the major multilateral organisations to counterbalance, sometimes with success, the United States. But France will once more need, to succeed in this mission to rebalance Europe and America, the support of Great Britain.

Japan: the Lost Decade, by Sahoko Kaji
In just 10 years, from the beginning of the 1990s, Japan moved from being a universally admired economie model to emerge as the problem child of the G7. There are many indicators of crisis: negative growth in GDP, rising unemployment, bankruptcy of financial institutions and excessive public borrowing. Up to 2001 successive governments preferred to manage the crisis with short term measures without addressing the core issues. But the new Prime Minister, Junichiro Koizumi, has, since his élection, piled on the structural reforms: recasting the financial intermediation System, privatisation and dereglementation, modernising the taxation system, resolution of the doubtful debts issue, reinforcing the social security system, and emphasising the role of the individual. The objective is to turn Japan into a country more open to the rest of the world, and more competitive with other countries. But Japan can only undertake this metamorphosis, which would be comparable with the Meiji era, if public opinion stays on Koizumi and the reformers' side accepting painful decisions in exchange for a better future.