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In developing the measures of agriculture policy and purposeful usage of EU funds, also for financial organisations, farmers, advisors and scientists it is important to predict farm bankruptcy. This makes it possible to formulate the scientific problem: what is the likelihood of bankruptcy of different kinds of family farms? The aim of the investigation is to present the likelihood of the Lithuanian family farms bankruptcy based on the economic size and type of farming by analysing financial indicators of farms. Farm-level panel data for the year 2014–2016 from Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) was used. The estimated distribution of farm groups based on farm economic size demonstrated that about 40–60% of small farms were in the low likelihood of bankruptcy area. The share of cereals, oilseeds and protein crop farms in the high likelihood of bankruptcy area fluctuated from 13% till 30% during the year 2014–2016. The farm distribution by economic size and type of farming showed that more than 40% of small dairy farms had the high likelihood of bankruptcy in the year 2015–2016, as well as 30% of medium and large cereals, oilseeds and protein crops farms in 2016. ; Formuojant žemės ūkio politikos priemones ir siekiant tikslingai panaudoti Europos Sąjungos paramos lėšas, svarbu numatyti galimą ūkio bankrotą. Tai labai aktualu ne tik politikams, bet ir ūkininkams, finansinio sektoriaus atstovams, konsultantams bei mokslininkams. Mokslinė problemasprendžiama atsakant į klausimą – koks bankroto galimumas skirtingų tipų šeimos ūkiuose? Tyrimo tikslas – išanalizavus Lietuvos šeimos ūkių finansinius rodiklius, pateikti bankroto galimumą pagal ekonominį ūkio dydį ir ūkininkavimo tipą. Tyrime analizuoti Ūkių apskaitos duomenų tinklo (ŪADT) ūkio lygio 2014–2016 m. tų pačių ūkių duomenys. Ūkių grupių pasiskirstymas pagal ūkių ekonominį dydį parodė, kad 40–60 proc. mažų ūkių bankroto tikimybė yra nedidelė. Javų, rapsų, ankštinių augalų grūdams ūkių grupėje bankroto tikimybė buvo nuo 13 iki 30 proc. ūkių, priklausomai nuo nagrinėjamų metų. Analizė pagal ūkių ekonominį dydį ir ūkininkavimo tipą parodė, kad aukšta bankroto tikimybė grėsė daugiau kaip 40 proc. mažų pieno ūkių 2015–2016 m. ir daugiau kaip 30 proc. vidutinių ir didelių javų, rapsų, ankštinių augalų grūdams ūkių 2016 m.

Lithuania became European and World market share, arose the problem to evaluate not only internal but also external factors, when forecasting agricultural production, consumption and foreign trade. This can be done using econometric models, which allow consider the European Union (EU) and World balance sheets components forecasts and project developments of the Lithuanian agriculture. Objective of the study - to prepare forecast for the agricultural and food sector up to the year 2020. Tasks of the study: 1. To analyze the models used for the agricultural and food sector projections and select the most suitable in respect to the conditions of the country; 2. To identify indicators that affect the Lithuanian agriculture and food sector development; 3. To analyze and project the EU and national support influence for the developments of different agricultural and food sector branches; 4. To propose and assess forecasts of the main crop and livestock production balance sheets. Statistical data analysis, experts' interview and econometric sectoral modeline are used in the research study. The analysis is performed for main agricultural sectors using economic and manufacturing indicators for 2000‐2008. The first section consists of review of agricultural and food sectors forecasting models and research study methodology preparation. Lithuanian and EU macroeconomic assumptions, which have influence on agricultural and food sector development, are proposed in the second chapter. The third chapter consists of analysis and evaluation of current EU and national support influence on agricultural and food sector development. There are prognoses of crop (grains, rapes, sugar beet, potatoes) and animal (meat milk) sectors balance sheets up to the year 2020 in the fourth and fifth chapters.

Lithuania became European and World market share, arose the problem to evaluate not only internal but also external factors, when forecasting agricultural production, consumption and foreign trade. This can be done using econometric models, which allow consider the European Union (EU) and World balance sheets components forecasts and project developments of the Lithuanian agriculture. Objective of the study - to prepare forecast for the agricultural and food sector up to the year 2020. Tasks of the study: 1. To analyze the models used for the agricultural and food sector projections and select the most suitable in respect to the conditions of the country; 2. To identify indicators that affect the Lithuanian agriculture and food sector development; 3. To analyze and project the EU and national support influence for the developments of different agricultural and food sector branches; 4. To propose and assess forecasts of the main crop and livestock production balance sheets. Statistical data analysis, experts' interview and econometric sectoral modeline are used in the research study. The analysis is performed for main agricultural sectors using economic and manufacturing indicators for 2000‐2008. The first section consists of review of agricultural and food sectors forecasting models and research study methodology preparation. Lithuanian and EU macroeconomic assumptions, which have influence on agricultural and food sector development, are proposed in the second chapter. The third chapter consists of analysis and evaluation of current EU and national support influence on agricultural and food sector development. There are prognoses of crop (grains, rapes, sugar beet, potatoes) and animal (meat milk) sectors balance sheets up to the year 2020 in the fourth and fifth chapters.

Lithuania became European and World market share, arose the problem to evaluate not only internal but also external factors, when forecasting agricultural production, consumption and foreign trade. This can be done using econometric models, which allow consider the European Union (EU) and World balance sheets components forecasts and project developments of the Lithuanian agriculture. Objective of the study - to prepare forecast for the agricultural and food sector up to the year 2020. Tasks of the study: 1. To analyze the models used for the agricultural and food sector projections and select the most suitable in respect to the conditions of the country; 2. To identify indicators that affect the Lithuanian agriculture and food sector development; 3. To analyze and project the EU and national support influence for the developments of different agricultural and food sector branches; 4. To propose and assess forecasts of the main crop and livestock production balance sheets. Statistical data analysis, experts' interview and econometric sectoral modeline are used in the research study. The analysis is performed for main agricultural sectors using economic and manufacturing indicators for 2000‐2008. The first section consists of review of agricultural and food sectors forecasting models and research study methodology preparation. Lithuanian and EU macroeconomic assumptions, which have influence on agricultural and food sector development, are proposed in the second chapter. The third chapter consists of analysis and evaluation of current EU and national support influence on agricultural and food sector development. There are prognoses of crop (grains, rapes, sugar beet, potatoes) and animal (meat milk) sectors balance sheets up to the year 2020 in the fourth and fifth chapters.

Lithuania became European and World market share, arose the problem to evaluate not only internal but also external factors, when forecasting agricultural production, consumption and foreign trade. This can be done using econometric models, which allow consider the European Union (EU) and World balance sheets components forecasts and project developments of the Lithuanian agriculture. Objective of the study - to prepare forecast for the agricultural and food sector up to the year 2020. Tasks of the study: 1. To analyze the models used for the agricultural and food sector projections and select the most suitable in respect to the conditions of the country; 2. To identify indicators that affect the Lithuanian agriculture and food sector development; 3. To analyze and project the EU and national support influence for the developments of different agricultural and food sector branches; 4. To propose and assess forecasts of the main crop and livestock production balance sheets. Statistical data analysis, experts' interview and econometric sectoral modeline are used in the research study. The analysis is performed for main agricultural sectors using economic and manufacturing indicators for 2000‐2008. The first section consists of review of agricultural and food sectors forecasting models and research study methodology preparation. Lithuanian and EU macroeconomic assumptions, which have influence on agricultural and food sector development, are proposed in the second chapter. The third chapter consists of analysis and evaluation of current EU and national support influence on agricultural and food sector development. There are prognoses of crop (grains, rapes, sugar beet, potatoes) and animal (meat milk) sectors balance sheets up to the year 2020 in the fourth and fifth chapters.

Profitable agricultural activity provides a stable self-sufficiency with agricultural and food products. Positive structural production changes have been reached in the Lithuanian agrarian sector while implementing EU common agricultural policy measures. However, due to both external and internal factors influence differences, profitability of separate agricultural branches and products vary a lot and may have a negative impact on the rational agricultural production changes. The aim of the research is to provide the rational decisions of profitability increase in agrarian sector using mathematical model. The tasks of the research are: to perform comparative analysis of Lithuanian and EU member states agrarian sector; to prepare mathematical model for agrarian sector profit forecasting and formulate assumptions for the model application; to evaluate factors influencing agrarian sector profit and provide their forecast up to the year 2013. Results of the research: evaluation of Lithuanian and EU member states agrarian sector economic indicators show that Lithuanian agrarian sector, having unequal level of competitive abilities, stands behind. Therefore it is necessary to use efficiently available external (support, prices) and internal (costs) reserves. Mathematical model has been prepared for agrarian sector profit and its scenarios forecasting, in consideration with different assumptions (actual and normative production costs, different direct payments levels) up to the year 2013. Forecasting results and scenario analysis show that optimization of production costs leads to higher profit, prices and direct payments increase profitability of the agricultural production at different level. Recommendations for the sustainable development of agricultural sector and policy measures improvements are proposed.

Profitable agricultural activity provides a stable self-sufficiency with agricultural and food products. Positive structural production changes have been reached in the Lithuanian agrarian sector while implementing EU common agricultural policy measures. However, due to both external and internal factors influence differences, profitability of separate agricultural branches and products vary a lot and may have a negative impact on the rational agricultural production changes. The aim of the research is to provide the rational decisions of profitability increase in agrarian sector using mathematical model. The tasks of the research are: to perform comparative analysis of Lithuanian and EU member states agrarian sector; to prepare mathematical model for agrarian sector profit forecasting and formulate assumptions for the model application; to evaluate factors influencing agrarian sector profit and provide their forecast up to the year 2013. Results of the research: evaluation of Lithuanian and EU member states agrarian sector economic indicators show that Lithuanian agrarian sector, having unequal level of competitive abilities, stands behind. Therefore it is necessary to use efficiently available external (support, prices) and internal (costs) reserves. Mathematical model has been prepared for agrarian sector profit and its scenarios forecasting, in consideration with different assumptions (actual and normative production costs, different direct payments levels) up to the year 2013. Forecasting results and scenario analysis show that optimization of production costs leads to higher profit, prices and direct payments increase profitability of the agricultural production at different level. Recommendations for the sustainable development of agricultural sector and policy measures improvements are proposed.

Profitable agricultural activity provides a stable self-sufficiency with agricultural and food products. Positive structural production changes have been reached in the Lithuanian agrarian sector while implementing EU common agricultural policy measures. However, due to both external and internal factors influence differences, profitability of separate agricultural branches and products vary a lot and may have a negative impact on the rational agricultural production changes. The aim of the research is to provide the rational decisions of profitability increase in agrarian sector using mathematical model. The tasks of the research are: to perform comparative analysis of Lithuanian and EU member states agrarian sector; to prepare mathematical model for agrarian sector profit forecasting and formulate assumptions for the model application; to evaluate factors influencing agrarian sector profit and provide their forecast up to the year 2013. Results of the research: evaluation of Lithuanian and EU member states agrarian sector economic indicators show that Lithuanian agrarian sector, having unequal level of competitive abilities, stands behind. Therefore it is necessary to use efficiently available external (support, prices) and internal (costs) reserves. Mathematical model has been prepared for agrarian sector profit and its scenarios forecasting, in consideration with different assumptions (actual and normative production costs, different direct payments levels) up to the year 2013. Forecasting results and scenario analysis show that optimization of production costs leads to higher profit, prices and direct payments increase profitability of the agricultural production at different level. Recommendations for the sustainable development of agricultural sector and policy measures improvements are proposed.

Profitable agricultural activity provides a stable self-sufficiency with agricultural and food products. Positive structural production changes have been reached in the Lithuanian agrarian sector while implementing EU common agricultural policy measures. However, due to both external and internal factors influence differences, profitability of separate agricultural branches and products vary a lot and may have a negative impact on the rational agricultural production changes. The aim of the research is to provide the rational decisions of profitability increase in agrarian sector using mathematical model. The tasks of the research are: to perform comparative analysis of Lithuanian and EU member states agrarian sector; to prepare mathematical model for agrarian sector profit forecasting and formulate assumptions for the model application; to evaluate factors influencing agrarian sector profit and provide their forecast up to the year 2013. Results of the research: evaluation of Lithuanian and EU member states agrarian sector economic indicators show that Lithuanian agrarian sector, having unequal level of competitive abilities, stands behind. Therefore it is necessary to use efficiently available external (support, prices) and internal (costs) reserves. Mathematical model has been prepared for agrarian sector profit and its scenarios forecasting, in consideration with different assumptions (actual and normative production costs, different direct payments levels) up to the year 2013. Forecasting results and scenario analysis show that optimization of production costs leads to higher profit, prices and direct payments increase profitability of the agricultural production at different level. Recommendations for the sustainable development of agricultural sector and policy measures improvements are proposed.

This summary report is based on the outcome of a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Partnership under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI, in the Netherlands), in cooperation with the Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) to generate projections for the main agricultural commodity markets for each year from 2005 until 2015. The report gives a general overview of the modelling approach, the description and implementation of the baseline, further CAP reform and exchange rate change scenarios. It outlines the main results for the aggregates EU-10, EU-15, EU-25 and EU-27, focusing in particular on the features implemented in this study, and addresses issues that need further attention. Detailed documentation on the AGMEMOD modelling approach, along with the outcome of the study, is published in five reports in the JRC-IPTS technical paper series under the heading "Impact analysis of Common Agricultural Policy reform on the main agricultural commodities".

This report is based on the outcome of a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Partnership under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI, the Netherlands), in cooperation with the Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) to generate yearly projections for the main agricultural commodity markets from 2005 until 2015. This report describes the modelling techniques used by the AGMEMOD Partnership, with emphasis on new commodities modelled and policy modelling approaches. Detailed documentation on the AGMEMOD modelling approach, along with the outcome of the study, is published in five reports in the JRC-IPTS Scientific and Technical Report Series under the heading "Impact analysis of Common Agricultural Policy reform on the main agricultural commodities"

This report is based on a study carried out by the AGMEMOD Partnership under the management of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI, in the Netherlands), in cooperation with the Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) to generate projections for the main agricultural commodity markets for each year from 2005 until 2015. The report outlines the results of the baseline projections of agricultural commodity markets, further CAP reform scenario impact analyses and exchange rate change sensitivity analyses for each EU-25 Member State (except Malta and Cyprus). For Bulgaria and Romania enlargement and non-enlargement scenarios are analysed. Detailed documentation on the AGMEMOD modelling approach, along with the outcome of the study, is published in five reports in the JRC-IPTS technical paper series under the heading "Impact analysis of Common Agricultural Policy reform on the main agricultural commodities".