In: Haustein , S , Jensen , A F & Cherchi , E 2021 , ' Battery electric vehicle adoption in Denmark and Sweden: Recent changes, related factors and policy implications ' , Energy Policy , vol. 149 , 112096 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.112096
Countries worldwide are trying to increase the share of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) to reach environmental goals. As part of these efforts, the EU project GREAT installed new fast chargers in Denmark and Sweden and provided possibilities to test BEVs and inform about them. To monitor changes in attitudes and behaviours and to estimate the impact of project activities, surveys with BEV and conventional car users were conducted in 2017, 2018, and 2019. We found that attitudes and driving behaviour of BEV users and non-users remained quite stable. While car users in Denmark and Sweden showed similar profiles, one exception was a more negative evaluation of and higher uncertainty about political support for BEVs by Danes. Modelling purchase intention, we found a significant effect of the new fast chargers in Denmark but not in Sweden, while the opposite was the case for information campaigns. Lifestyle compatibility and symbolic-affective attitudes were relevant for BEV adoption in both countries. For cross-border trips, the most relevant factor was whether people had a Tesla or not, reflecting the better driving range and fast charging infrastructure. An increase of charging infrastructure, clearer policy signals and symbolic-affective marketing are discussed as ways to increase BEV adoption.
In: Jensen , A F , Rasmussen , T K & Prato , C G 2018 , ' A Joint Route Choice Model for Capturing Preferences of Electric and Conventional Car Drivers ' , Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting , Washington DC , United States , 07/01/2018 - 11/01/2018 .
Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) play an important role in the increasing effort by governments to curtail the pollution from the transport sector and reduce the dependence from fossil fuels of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). Although traffic assignment models exist for BEVs, the assumption of shortest path search on the basis of time constrained by energy consumption does not have any empirical basis. The current paper presents a revealed preference study of route choice behaviour of drivers participating in a large-scale experiment with BEVs. Observed routes while driving BEVs and ICEVs were map matched and a joint route choice model was specified and estimated to reveal whether the type of vehicle is related to the preference structure. Significantly different parameters for trip length for BEV and ICEV are obtained in the model estimation, indicating a higher sensitivity to the distance travelled when driving BEVs. Moreover, the level of charge of the battery and the travel in the morning peak make drivers less sensitive to distance. The findings from this study suggest the need to revise the cost functions in the literature about traffic assignment with BEVs as these functions should not consider similar parameters regardless of the vehicle type, but instead a higher sensitivity to distance that reflects heterogeneity in driving behaviour with BEVs.
In: Jensen , A F , Haustein , S , Cherchi , E & Thorhauge , M 2017 , ' Actual preferences for EV households in Denmark and Sweden ' , The VI European Association for Research in Transportation (hEART) Symposium , Haifa , Israel , 12/09/2017 - 14/09/2017 .
Battery electric vehicles (EVs) have received vast attention in the recent decade, especially due to their potential environmental benefits. The car industry has invested huge amounts in the battery electric vehicle technology, leading to a much larger selection of car models with better comfort, driving range and options for recharging the batteries. Several studies have indicated that a great share of car households would now be able to maintain their current mobility patterns with only a minor level of adaption (Christensen 2011; Pearre et al. 2011; Greaves et al. 2014). Still, the driving range of a fully recharged EV is of great importance to the potential users (Jensen et al. 2013; Dimitropoulos et al. 2013; Mabit & Fosgerau 2011; Franke & Krems 2013), but as the battery capacity of the EVs continue to increase, the mobility constraints related to former EV models will most probably be reduced. Thus, the EV alternative has changed from being a product for a very small group of enthusiasts to being an actual car alternative for a common household and knowledge about which type of households would be interested in EVs is extremely valuable for both industry and policy makers. However, as the EV market is still quite immature in most countries, lack of data on EV users is a common problem for researchers. Data on EV purchase and use have thus often been collected by means of data from intentional statements (see e.g. Bühler et al. 2014), stated preferences (see e.g. Bunch et al. 1993; Hidrue et al. 2011; Jensen et al. 2014) and EV vehicle trials (Golob & Gould 1998; Franke & Krems 2013; Jensen et al. 2014). While such studies have provided important insight into various areas of the EV market, the fact that the results are not based on actual behaviour means that they are subject to a high degree of uncertainty. Being the global EV market forerunner, Norway has a better foundation for studying the EV market based on actual EV owners. On these grounds, Klöckner et al. (2013), studied differences in car use between EV and conventional vehicle (CV) users. Also in Norway, Mersky et al. (2016) and Bjerkan et al. (2016) both studied the effect of policy incentives on EV purchase. Compared to these existing studies, we contribute to the literature with a more advanced model to study the EV market and we focus on the market in Denmark and Sweden. In particular, we use revealed preference information to investigate how household characteristics, attitudes, norms, perceived barriers and perceived functional attributes of the EVs affect the probability of being an EV household. The data utilized in this study was collected in connection with the EU project GREAT, which aims to reduce fossil emissions by improving supply for alternative-fuelled vehicles in northern Europe. Besides detailed individual and household characteristics from a sample of both EV and CV household users, the data contains detailed information on individual determinants of EV adaption based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour (Ajzen 1991). Data were collected through an online survey in Sweden and Denmark. The Swedish study was distributed through different channels including the intranet of regions Skåne and Västra Götaland, different newletters and EV related facebook groups. In Denmark, EV users were contacted via the infrastructure provider E.ON, while the CV users were contacted through the online panel of the market research institute EPINION. In total 1364 observations are available for Denmark and 1288 for Sweden. Descriptive statistics of the sample show that EV respondents were to a much higher extend male, had a higher household income and higher education level and were more often self-employed, lived less often alone and more often had children compared to CV users. Comparing Tesla users to other EV users, we found that Tesla users perceived less functional barriers in terms of EV usage, had more positive affective attitudes related to driving an EV and felt to a higher degree supported by relevant others to use/buy an EV (subjective norm). Interestingly, they did not report more positive symbolic attitudes in relation to their EV ownership. We modelled the probability of being an EV household with an advanced discrete choice model, taking both household characteristic and the latent determinants of EV adoption into account. A preliminary hybrid choice model with a latent variable for perceived barriers and most relevant household characteristics is presented below for the Danish sample.
In: Jensen , A F , Rasmussen , T K & Prato , C G 2017 , ' A Joint Route Choice Model for Electric and Conventional Car Users ' , V International Choice Modeling Conference , Cape Town , South Africa , 03/04/2017 - 05/04/2017 .
Introduction Worldwide, governments have committed to reducing air pollution and carbon emissions. With a higher share of renewable sources in the electricity production, battery electric cars (EVs) could play a significant role in maintaining these commitments. Growing literature shows an increasing interest in EVs and their market, but current EV travel demand studies are usually based on data collected from users of conventional gasoline or diesel engine cars (CVs) (see e.g. (Golob and Gould 1998; Pearre et al. 2011; Greaves et al. 2014). EVs are however different from CVs in a number of ways, in particular when it comes to the driving range and the refuelling/recharging which can lead to behavioural changes (Jensen and Mabit 2015). EV users might avoid longer and less-planned trips and, when deciding on a route, they might select roads where the general speed is lower, the trip length is shorter, or the charging facilities are better. On the other hand, over a longer period of time, many users do not need charging other than overnight charging at home in order to keep up with their current behaviour (Christensen et al. 2010) . Thus, the impact on traffic of a large scale EV adoption is not obvious, as it cannot be assumed that CVs currently on the road are simply replaced by EVs and individual behaviour otherwise stays constant. Understanding the behaviour of EV users is important in a number of ways. Beside potential environmental effects, there is a need to understand other related effects, such as effects on the electricity network and the transport network. The objective of this study is to use revealed preferences (RP) data to investigate differences in route choice behaviour between CV and EV users. To our knowledge, this is the first time that a state-of-the-art route choice model has been estimated on RP EV data. In addition, the level of detail in the data allows for accounting for congestion, reliability, topology, weather and socioeconomic background. Method This study exploits a unique and vast dataset consisting of GPS records from a large demonstration project about EVs conducted in Denmark during the period 2011-2013. Households participating in the trial had an EV available for a period of three months during which all trips were GPS logged. Additionally, some of the households GPS logged trips by their CV in the month before and the month after the EV was received. The GPS traces were matched to the very detailed NAVTEQ street network (NAVTEQ 2010). The high level of detail of the network is crucial, as EV users might use smaller roads with lower speeds in order to save energy due to current technological restrictions on driving distances. Following the procedure in Prato et al. (2014), route choice behaviour is modelled with a two-stage approach consisting of choice set generation and model estimation. The first stage used a doubly stochastic generation process to generate a choice set consisting of a maximum of 100 unique alternatives for each observed route. Subsequently, the observations were filtered to exclude observations for which the choice set contained only one alternative route or did not contain any alternative reasonably similar to the observed route. In the second stage, a mixed path size correction logit model was estimated for modelling route choice behaviour, (Bovy et al. 2008). Comparison of EV and CV preferences is made possible by estimating jointly across data from each technology using a logit scaling approach with at least one generic parameter across data (Bradley and Daly 1997). Data After the map matching and filtering processes, GPS records were available for about 90,000 EV trips from 379 households. About 6,500 CV trips were logged for about 100 households in the month before and after the EV was used. The sample of households was based on voluntary participation under the condition that the household already owned at least one car and had a dedicated parking space where the EV could be home charged. In the trial period, the household had access to both their CV and EV, but they were encouraged to use the EV as the primary option. The participating households resided in 27 of the 98 municipalities in Denmark and were distributed across the entire country (see Figure 1). For trial participation purposes, one household member filled an online application form with information about the household and its composition. Each trip has been merged with weather information from local weather stations, inducing that information about precipitation, wind speed, temperature and visibility at the time of departure is available. The NAVTEQ network consists of 636,243 links covering the entire country and all road classes from large highways to minor local roads.
In: Jensen , A F , Thorhauge , M , de Jong , G , Rich , J , Dekker , T , Johnson , D , Ojeda Cabral , M , Bates , J & Nielsen , O A 2019 , ' A disaggregate freight transport chain choice model for Europe ' , Transportation Research. Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review , vol. 121 , pp. 43-62 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2018.10.004
This paper presents the estimation of a discrete freight transport chain choice model for Europe, which was developed for the European Union as part of the Transtools 3 project. The model describes nine different multi- and single mode chain alternatives of which three can be either container or non-containerised, and it segments freight into dry bulk, liquid bulk, containers and general cargo. The model was estimated on the basis of disaggregate data at the shipment level (Swedish CFS and French ECHO data). Several transport costs specifications and nesting structures were tested and elasticities compared with reference literature. It was found that freight models are characterised by heterogeneity, non-linearity in transport costs and hence Value of Times and non-constant rates of substitution. Not taking these elements into account will have consequences for the evaluation of transport policies using the freight transport model.