Suchergebnisse

Following the July 2004 Framework, this paper suggest that regardless of low or high level of reductions, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, the European Union, and United States have problems with both Total AMS and the overall base level of Total Trade Distorting Domestic Support. When recent policy reforms and likely changes such as the Agenda 2000, the Midterm Review Reform, the proposed sugar reform in the European Union and the farm bills of 1996 and 2002 in the United States are taken into account, it becomes clear that both the European Union and the United States would be able to accommodate low or moderate reductions in both Total AMS and Total Trade Distorting Domestic Support. In respect of high reductions, further domestic reforms would be needed for both the European Union and the United States.

A comprehensive database on domestic support is key for any meaningful agri-food policy computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis. In the GTAP database – the main data source used for global CGE analysis – domestic support levels are calculated from the OECD Producer Support Estimate (PSE). The GTAP database version 9, released in 2015, includes a new representation for the European Union (EU) which combines the strengths of two datasets, i.e. the PSE and the Clearance Audit Trail System (CATS) database from the European Commission. This paper compares the version 9 approach with an alternative one that makes the representation of EU expenditures more transparent and inclusive. It clearly highlights that this later includes more payments than the traditional methodology. Indeed an accurate classification shall embrace domestic support going beyond the PSE, being defined as General Services Support Estimate (GSSE) or Consumer Support Estimate (CSE) by the OECD. Accordingly any change in the accounting convention for the EU domestic support can only have a comparative significance if other countries also follow.

We use the Mercantilist Trade Restrictiveness Index (MTRI) to develop an extended index that measures the overall trade effects of domestic support payments in a general equilibrium framework environment. Our index is capable of analyzing the development of the trade restrictiveness of domestic support payments over time and across countries and of comparing these payments with other protection instruments. Furthermore, our index helps evaluate agricultural policy reforms that introduce changes into the composition of domestic support payments. We conduct this analysis with an extended version of the GTAP model and database using the EU as an example. Thus, we incorporate detailed EU domestic support payments taken from the OECD Producer Support Estimate (PSE) tables in the GTAP framework and reconcile PSE data with the WTO classification scheme. Although our index slightly increases from 2004 to 2007, the results indicate a decrease in trade distortion stemming from the implementation of decoupled support in the EU. The trade-equivalent protection rate determined under the index shows that domestic support payments restrict trade more than tariffs and export subsidies. Additionally, the index indicates that reducing WTO amber box domestic support payments would lead to decreased trade restrictiveness. ; We use the Mercantilist Trade Restrictiveness Index (MTRI) to develop an extended index that measures the overall trade effects of domestic support payments in a general equilibrium framework environment. Our index is capable of analyzing the development of the trade restrictiveness of domestic support payments over time and across countries and of comparing these payments with other protection instruments. Furthermore, our index helps evaluate agricultural policy reforms that introduce changes into the composition of domestic support payments. We conduct this analysis with an extended version of the GTAP model and database using the EU as an example. Thus, we incorporate detailed EU domestic support payments taken from the OECD Producer Support Estimate (PSE) tables in the GTAP framework and reconcile PSE data with the WTO classification scheme. Although our index slightly increases from 2004 to 2007, the results indicate a decrease in trade distortion stemming from the implementation of decoupled support in the EU. The trade-equivalent protection rate determined under the index shows that domestic support payments restrict trade more than tariffs and export subsidies. Additionally, the index indicates that reducing WTO amber box domestic support payments would lead to decreased trade restrictiveness.

The EU Single Farm Payment (SFP) is currently distributed in proportion to primary factor shares in version 8 of the GTAP database. In this paper, we investigate whether this way of modeling the EU SFP makes a difference in analyzing agricultural policy reforms. To do so, we create alternative versions of the GTAP database to compare the effects with the default setting in GTAP. Employing OECD data, along with the GTAP framework, we vary the assumptions about the allocation of the SFP. In the process, we demonstrate how to alter and update the GTAP database to implement domestic support of OECD PSE tables. We provide a detailed overview supplemented with assumptions of payment allocation, shock calculations and in particular, the Altertax procedure to update value flows and price equations extended in the GTAP model. Subsequently, we illustrate the impact of those assumptions by simulating a 100% removal of the SFP using the deviating versions of GTAP database. This sensitivity analysis reveals strong differences in results, but particularly in production responses of food and agricultural sectors that decrease with an increasing degree of decoupling. Furthermore, our analysis shows that the effect on welfare and the trade balance decreases with an increasing degree of decoupling. This experiment shows that the allocation of the SFP can have strong impacts on simulation results.

A comprehensive database on domestic support is key for any meaningful agri-food policy computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis. In the GTAP database - the main data source used for global CGE analysis - domestic support levels are calculated from the OECD Producer Support Estimate (PSE). The current representation of domestic support in the GTAP database does not capture all agricultural support. Unilateral change in the GTAP accounting convention would lead to data discrepancies with other countries/regions (e.g., existing work on EU support). Altogether, the PSE, the Consumer Support Estimate (CSE) and General Services Support Estimate (GSSE) cover most support specific to agriculture, even if they appear incomplete with some inconsistent regional and commodity coverage. Furthermore expanding agricultural support in the GTAP database does have some implication for output and price results when conducting policy analysis. There is a need to agree on a systematic approach to represent different types of policy instruments (without relying on a subjective allocation) and to avoid double accounting (e.g., with the information already accounted for by the countries' Input Output Tables). This paper aims to determine the importance of embracing domestic support going beyond the PSE. It proposes an alternative representation of domestic support and quantifies effects induced by such changes. This research work might be seen as the first step towards a more comprehensive representation of the changing nature and magnitude of agricultural domestic support into the GTAP database.

The workshop 'Medium-term Outlook for the EU Agricultural Commodity markets' is an integral part of the intensive validation procedure of the results of the European Commission's report 'Prospects for EU agricultural markets and income'. It provides a forum for presentations on preliminary medium term projections of the most relevant EU agricultural commodity markets and discussing in-depth the EU prospects in a global context. This year the workshop was held on 22-23 October in Brussels. The workshop was jointly organised by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development (DG AGRI). Participants included policy makers, modelling and market experts from various countries, as well as stakeholders of the agri food industry. This document summarises the presentations and discussions on the macroeconomic and energy assumptions associated with this outlook, and on each of the EU agricultural markets addressed: biofuels, cereals and oilseeds, sweeteners, milk and dairy, meats and wine. Additionally this year challenges regarding international trade disputes, organic agriculture and climate change were also discussed. ; Published ; Proceedings of the October 2018 workshop