Suchergebnisse

Assessment of the extent of civilian casualties during times of conflict presents significant challenges in data collection, quantitative methods, interpretation, and presentation. In this article, we briefly consider the motivation and use of casualty accounting and review historical approaches to these questions with illustrative comments on the US Civil War, World War I, World War II, and other conflicts. We provide an overview of several accounting methodologies including excess mortality, epidemiologic surveys, direct and indirect counts, multiple list estimation, and crowdsourcing. We reflect on the evolution toward modern approaches to casualty assessments, permitted by both a deeper understanding of human rights and by contemporaneous technological advances in data collection techniques. Our goal is to introduce several areas of research that deserve attention from social science historians and statisticians.

IntroductionTo be used most effectively, pre‐exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) should be prioritized to those at high risk of acquisition and would ideally be aligned with time periods of increased exposure. Identifying such time periods is not always straightforward, however. Gaza Province in southern Mozambique is characterized by high levels of HIV transmission and circular labour migration to mines in South Africa. A strong seasonal pattern in births is observable, reflecting an increase in conception in December. Given the potential for increased HIV transmission between miners returning in December and their partners in Gaza Province, PrEP use by the latter would be a useful means of HIV prevention, especially for couples who wish to conceive.MethodsA mathematical model was used to represent population‐level adult heterosexual HIV transmission in Gaza Province. Increased HIV acquisition among partners of miners in December, coinciding with the miners' return from South Africa, is represented. In addition to a PrEP intervention, the scale‐up of treatment and recent scale‐up of male circumcision that have occurred in Gaza are represented.ResultsProviding time‐limited PrEP to the partners of migrant miners, as opposed to providing PrEP all year, would improve the cost per infection averted by 7.5‐fold. For the cost per infection averted to be below US$3000, at least 85% of PrEP users would need to be good adherers and PrEP would need to be cheaper than US$115 per person per year. Uncertainty regarding incidence of HIV transmission among partners of miners each year in December has a strong influence on estimates of cost per infection averted.ConclusionsProviding time‐limited PrEP to partners of migrant miners in Gaza Province during periods of increased exposure would be a novel strategy for providing PrEP. This strategy would allow for a better prioritized intervention, with the potential to improve the efficiency of a PrEP intervention considerably, as well as providing important reproductive health benefits.

AbstractIntroductionGeographic and transportation barriers are associated with poorer HIV‐related health outcomes in sub‐Saharan Africa, but data on the impact of these barriers on prevention interventions are limited. We estimated the association between distance to clinic and other transportation‐related barriers on pre‐exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) uptake and initial clinic visit attendance in a rural community in southwestern Uganda enrolled in the ongoing SEARCH study (NCT01864603).MethodsCommunity‐wide HIV testing was conducted and offered to adult (≥15 years) participants in Ruhoko. Participants were eligible for PrEP based on an empiric risk score, having an HIV‐discordant partner, or self‐referral at either the community health campaign or during home‐based testing from March to April 2017. We collected data from PrEP‐eligible households on GPS‐measured distance to clinic, walking time to clinic and road difficulty. A sample of participants was also asked to identify their primary barriers to PrEP use with a semi‐quantitative questionnaire. We used multivariable logistic regression to evaluate the association between transportation barriers and (1) PrEP uptake among PrEP‐eligible individuals and (2) four‐week clinic visit attendance among PrEP initiators.ResultsOf the 701 PrEP‐eligible participants, 272 (39%) started PrEP within four weeks; of these, 45 (17%) were retained at four weeks. Participants with a distance to clinic of ≥2 km were less likely to start PrEP (aOR 0.34; 95% CI 0.15 to 0.79, p = 0.012) and less likely to be retained on PrEP once initiated (aOR 0.29; 95% CI 0.10 to 0.84; p = 0.024). Participants who were deemed eligible during home‐based testing and did not have the option of same‐day PrEP start were also substantially less likely to initiate PrEP (aOR 0.16, 95% CI 0.07 to 0.37, p < 0.001). Of participants asked to name barriers to PrEP use (N = 98), the most frequently cited were "needing to take PrEP every day" (N = 18) and "low/no risk of getting HIV" (N = 18). Transportation‐related barriers, including "clinic is too far away" (N = 6) and "travel away from home" (N = 4) were also reported.ConclusionsDistance to clinic is a significant predictor of PrEP uptake and four‐week follow‐up visit attendance in a community in rural Uganda. Interventions that address geographic and transportation barriers may improve PrEP uptake and retention in sub‐Saharan Africa.