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Abstract. This paper presents a method for attributing regional trends in the frequency of extremely hot days (EHDs) to changes in the frequency of the atmospheric patterns that characterize such extraordinary events. The study is applied to mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands for the extended summers of the period 1958–2008, where significant and positive trends in maximum temperature (Tx) have been reported during the second half of the past century. First, the study area was split into eight regions attending to their different temporal variability of the daily Tx series obtained from the Spain02 gridded data set using a clustering procedure. Second, the large-scale atmospheric situations causing EHDs are defined by circulation types (CTs). The obtainment of the CTs differs from the majority of CT classifications proposed in the literature. It is based on regional series and on a previous characterization of the main atmospheric situations obtained using only some days classified as extremes in the different regions. Three different atmospheric fields (SLP, T850, and Z500) from ECMWF reanalysis and analysis data and combinations of them (SLP–T850, SLP–Z500, and T850–Z500) are used to produce six different CT classifications. Subsequently, links between EHD occurrence in the different regions and CT for all days have been established. Finally, a simple model to relate the trends in EHDs for each region to the changes in the CT frequency appearance has been formulated. Most regions present positive and significant trends in the occurrence of EHDs. The CT classifications using two variables perform better. In particular, SLP–T850 is the best for characterizing the atmospheric situations leading to EHD occurrences for most of the regions. Only a small number of CTs have significant trends in their frequency and are associated with high efficiency causing EHD occurrences in most regions simultaneously, especially in the northern and central regions. Attribution results show that changes in circulation can only explain some part of the regional EHD trends. The percentage of the trend attributable to changes in atmospheric dynamics varies from 15 to 50 %, depends on the region and is sensitive to the selected large-scale variables.

Sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides form two of largest contributors to PM2.5 in Europe; ammonium sulfate ((NH4)2SO4) and ammonium nitrate (NH4NO3). In-situ observations of many chemical components are rather sparse, and thus neither can accurately characterize the distribution of pollutants nor predict the effectiveness of emission control. Understanding (and controlling) the formation regimes for these components is important for the achievement of the reduction objectives established in the European legislation for PM2.5 (20% of PM2.5 triennial for the mean of urban background levels between 2018 and 2020). For this purpose, the present work uses the CALIOPE high-resolution air quality modeling system (12 km × 12 km, 1 h) to investigate the formation of SIA (SO42−, NO3− and NH4+, which involve an important part of PM) and their gaseous precursors (SO2, HNO3 and NH3) over Europe during the year 2004. The CALIOPE system performs well at estimating SIAs when compared to the measurements from EMEP monitoring network, but errors are larger for gaseous precursors. NH3 is underestimated in the warmest months, HNO3 tends to be overestimated in the summer months, and SO2 appears to be systematically overestimated. The temporal treatment of ammonia emission is a probable source of uncertainty in the model representation of SIA. Furthermore, we discuss the annual pattern for each inorganic aerosol and gas precursor species over Europe estimated with the EMEP data and CALIOPE outputs, comparing the performance with other European studies. Spatial distribution of key indicators is used to characterize chemical regimes and understand the sensitivity of SIA components to their emission precursors. Results indicate that SO42− is not usually fully neutralized to ammonium sulfate in ambient measurements and is usually fully neutralized in model estimates. CALIOPE and EMEP observations agree that the continental regions in Europe tend to be HNO3-limited for nitrate formation. Regulatory strategies in such regions should focus on reductions in NOx (NO + NO2) rather than NH3 to control ammonium nitrate. This work assesses how well the CALIOPE system reproduces the spatial and temporal variability of SIAs and their gaseous precursors over Europe and complements the measurement findings.

The Caliope project funded by the Spanish Ministry of the Environment establishes an air quality forecasting system for Spain to increase the knowledge on transport and dynamics of pollutants in Spain, to assure the accomplishment of legislation and to inform the population about the levels of pollutants, topics in which the European Commission has shown a great concern. The present contribution describes the first quantitative verification study performed so far with two chemistry transport models (CMAQ and CHIMERE) for a reference year (2004) at medium spatial resolution (around 20×20 km for the Iberian Peninsula). Both models perform similarly in the case of ground-level ozone. The mean normalised gross error MNGE remains below 15–20% during summertime, when ozone episodes occur, outlining the good skills of the system concerning the forecasting of air quality in Spain. Furthermore, the ongoing developments of the system towards high resolution modelling (4×4 km for Spain, 12×12 km for Europe, 1 h temporal resolution) and the integration with observations within the Caliope umbrella are described.

The Caliope project funded by the Spanish Ministry of the Environment establishes an air quality forecasting system for Spain to increase the knowledge on transport and dynamics of pollutants in Spain, to assure the accomplishment of legislation and to inform the population about the levels of pollutants, topics in which the European Commission has shown a great concern. The present contribution describes the first quantitative verification study performed so far with two chemistry transport models (CMAQ and CHIMERE) for a reference year (2004) at medium spatial resolution (around 20×20 km for the Iberian Peninsula). Both models perform similarly in the case of ground-level ozone. The mean normalised gross error MNGE remains below 15–20% during summertime, when ozone episodes occur, outlining the good skills of the system concerning the forecasting of air quality in Spain. Furthermore, the ongoing developments of the system towards high resolution modelling (4×4 km for Spain, 12×12 km for Europe, 1 h temporal resolution) and the integration with observations within the Caliope umbrella are described.

10 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables.-- Contributed to: 7th EMS Annual Meeting and 8th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology 2007 (San Lorenzo de El Escorial, Spain, Oct 1-5, 2007). ; The Caliope project funded by the Spanish Ministry of the Environment establishes an air quality forecasting system for Spain to increase the knowledge on transport and dynamics of pollutants in Spain, to assure the accomplishment of legislation and to inform the population about the levels of pollutants, topics in which the European Commission has shown a great concern. The present contribution describes the first quantitative verification study performed so far with two chemistry transport models (CMAQ and CHIMERE) for a reference year (2004) at medium spatial resolution (around 20×20 km for the Iberian Peninsula). Both models perform similarly in the case of ground-level ozone. The mean normalised gross error MNGE remains below 15–20% during summertime, when ozone episodes occur, outlining the good skills of the system concerning the forecasting of air quality in Spain. Furthermore, the ongoing developments of the system towards high resolution modelling (4×4 km for Spain, 12×12 km for Europe, 1 h temporal resolution) and the integration with observations within the Caliope umbrella are described. ; This work is funded by the Caliope project of the Spanish Ministry of the Environment (441/2006/3-12.1 and A357/200/2-12.1). CMAQ and DREAM simulations were performed in the MareNostrum supercomputer hosted by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC). ; Peer reviewed

International audience ; The Caliope project funded by the Spanish Ministry of the Environment establishes an air quality forecasting system for Spain to increase the knowledge on transport and dynamics of pollutants in Spain, to assure the accomplishment of legislation and to inform the population about the levels of pollutants, topics in which the European Commission has shown a great concern. The present contribution describes the first quantitative verification study performed so far with two chemistry transport models (CMAQ and CHIMERE) for a reference year (2004) at medium spatial resolution (around 20×20 km for the Iberian Peninsula). Both models perform similarly in the case of ground-level ozone. The mean normalised gross error MNGE remains below 15?20% during summertime, when ozone episodes occur, outlining the good skills of the system concerning the forecasting of air quality in Spain. Furthermore, the ongoing developments of the system towards high resolution modelling (4×4 km for Spain, 12×12 km for Europe, 1 h temporal resolution) and the integration with observations within the Caliope umbrella are described.