Decision analysis tools and mathematical modeling are increasingly emphasized in malaria control programs worldwide to improve resource allocation and address ongoing challenges with sustainability. However, such tools require substantial scientific evidence, which is costly to acquire. The value of information (VOI) has been proposed as a metric for gauging the value of reduced model uncertainty. We apply this concept to an evidenced‐based Malaria Decision Analysis Support Tool (MDAST) designed for application in East Africa. In developing MDAST, substantial gaps in the scientific evidence base were identified regarding insecticide resistance in malaria vector control and the effectiveness of alternative mosquito control approaches, including larviciding. We identify four entomological parameters in the model (two for insecticide resistance and two for larviciding) that involve high levels of uncertainty and to which outputs in MDAST are sensitive. We estimate and compare a VOI for combinations of these parameters in evaluating three policy alternatives relative to a status quo policy. We find having perfect information on the uncertain parameters could improve program net benefits by up to 5–21%, with the highest VOI associated with jointly eliminating uncertainty about reproductive speed of malaria‐transmitting mosquitoes and initial efficacy of larviciding at reducing the emergence of new adult mosquitoes. Future research on parameter uncertainty in decision analysis of malaria control policy should investigate the VOI with respect to other aspects of malaria transmission (such as antimalarial resistance), the costs of reducing uncertainty in these parameters, and the extent to which imperfect information about these parameters can improve payoffs.
Frontmatter -- Contents -- Figures and Tables -- Preface -- Introduction: The Roots of Moral Austerity in Environmental Policy Discourse -- Part I. Moral Principles and Environmental Policy: Basic Issues and Dilemmas -- Issue 1: Science as a Substitute for Moral Principle? Science as a Substitute for Moral Principle -- Science Is No Substitute for Moral Principle -- Issue 2: Environmental Justice without Social Justice? Why Environmental Thought and Action Must Include Considerations of Social Justice -- Environmental Justice: Private Preference or Public Necessity? -- Issue 3: Nature Has Only an Instrumental Value Sustainability: Descriptive or Performative? -- Are Environmental Values All Instrumental? -- Issue 4: Intrinsic Value Implies No Use and a Threat to Democratic Governance A Practical Concept of Nature's Intrinsic Value -- On Intrinsic Value and Environmental Ethics -- Part II. Case Studies in Sustainable Environmental Policy and Law -- Introduction -- The Subnational Role in Sustainable Development: Lessons from American States and Canadian Provinces -- Sustainable Development and Natural Hazards Mitigation -- Sustainable Governance -- Sustainability in the United States: Legal Tools and Initiatives -- Sustainable Development and the Use of Public Lands -- The Impact of Political Institutions on Preservation of U.S. and Canadian National Parks -- Global Environmental Accountability: The Missing Link in the Pursuit of Sustainable Development? -- Part III. Moral Principles and Sustainable Environmental Policy: An Analysis of Ends and Means -- Introduction -- Issue 1: Science and Sustainability Sustainability, Sustainable Development, and Values -- Saving All the Parts: Science and Sustainability -- Discussion -- Issue 2: Environmental Policy, Sustainability, and Social Justice Why Environmental Public Policy Analysis Must Include Explicit Normative Considerations: Reflections on Seven Illustrations -- Sustainability and Environmental Justice: A Necessary Connection -- Discussion -- Issue 3: A Sustainable Environment as an Instrumental Value? The Hedgehog, the Fox, and the Environment -- Why Not Foxy Hedgehogs? -- Discussion -- Issue 4: A Sustainable Environment as an Intrinsic Value? Sustainability: Restricting the Policy Debate -- Comments on Sustainability -- Discussion -- Conclusion: Democratic Competence, Accountability, and Education in the Twenty-first Century -- Notes -- References -- Contributors -- Index
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