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The Paris Agreement was the culmination of a series of high level government meetings over many years. It aimed to bring together a very complex set of agendas, vested interests and political ambition into a unified framework for action.

International political negotiations and national policy for climate change mitigation are increasingly focussed on the mobilisation and scale up of investments in clean energy infrastructure. This paper aims to develop the understanding of how institutional investors in the private sector perceive barriers to scaling up investment into clean energy infrastructure and what policy solutions to those barriers they advocate. This paper adds to existing scientific knowledge through a clear focus on private sector perceptions. Through the analysis of previous public statements from organisations and coalitions in the finance sector a number of investment barriers were identified. These initial barriers fed into a Delphi process. The outputs of the Delphi process were categorized into five sets of barriers and a number of policy solutions associated with investing into clean energy solutions. We conclude that there is a need for better engagement with the institutional investment community to ensure further effort on policy development that underpins investments at scale is effective and efficient.

The first formal world models -- Comparison between World3 scenarios and historical data -- Welcome to the real world! -- The evolution of economic thinking and system modelling techniques -- The ERRE model -- ERRE database, statistical validation and stress test scenarios.

This book presents a new and innovative approach to understanding the dynamics of international climate change negotiations using India as a focal point. The authors consider India's negotiating position at multilateral climate negotiations and its focus on the notion of 'equity' and its new avatar 'climate justice'. This book delves into the media's representation of India as a rural economy, a rising industrial power, a developing country, a member of the 5 emerging economies (BRICS), and a country with severe resource security issues, in order to examine the diverse and at time divergent narratives on India's national identity in the context of policy formulation. Those researching such diverse fields as international development, politics, economics, climate change, and international law will find this book offers useful insights into the motivations and drivers of a nation's response to climate change imperatives. Samir Saran is Vice President at the Observer Research Foundation, India. He is honorary Director of the centre for peace and conflict studies at the Sardar Patel Police University (SPUP) and faculty at a number of other schools and programs. His research interests include: the representation of Islam and mediation of radicalism, climate change, internet governance and cyber security, and the emergence of BRICS in the international order. Aled Jones is Director of the Global Sustainability Institute (GSI) at Anglia Ruskin University, UK. His research focusses on the finance sector and government and how they will respond to the impacts of global resource trends and climate change

With substantial risks arising from resource constraints on global growth, serious questions are being posed about how a scarcity of finite resources may impact global social and political fragility. The research which forms the core of this book focuses on how this scarcity will impact the financial sector, especially through insurance, pension and banking activities. The UK finance sector, which is considered to be amongst the most globalised, is placed under the microscope, and its approaches to food and oil are particularly noteworthy. Interviews with senior financial experts are analysed alongside more traditional quantitative economic analysis to explore potential future impacts, the scope of natural resource constraints and their impact on the economy

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Despite the rich and extensive documentation provided by European Member States and the European Commission in describing National Energy and Climates Plans and Long-Term Strategy plans, it is still very difficult to evaluate where and how the European Union as a whole has positioned itself on the path to achieving the Green Deal objectives, named the Fit 55% package in 2030 and the achievement of carbon neutrality by 2050. This research aims to fill this gap, proposing a simple but exhaustive semantic scaling methodology that allows, for the first time, a quantitative evaluation of the quality of the National Plans based on European Commission assessments to measure their compliance with the European Green Deal objectives. Results show that Member States have more clearly set the Green Deal targets than the actions to deliver against those targets. Actions, in term of nationals policies and funds administration, are still immature and partially addressed.

Food systems represent a significant risk to financial and political stability in a number of regions around the world. The Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University has been building models, gathering data and developing methods to explore the dynamics involved in civil unrest, financial instability and local responses associated with food production shocks. These include agent based modelling, systems dynamic modelling, narratives, scenario development, access to weather systems monitoring and war gaming. However, the analysis techniques applied to understanding historic food price dynamics as a result of production shocks are simple econometric tools such as regression testing. A much more sophisticated approach to data analysis could yield new insights in historic price shocks that would better inform policy and market based responses.

Food production shocks can lead to food crises where access to appropriate quantities and quality of food become inadequate, unaffordable, or unreliable on a major scale. While the physical causes of food production shocks are well researched, the dynamics of responses to them are less well understood. This paper reviews those dynamics and includes evidence gathered via interviews of 44 expert practitioners sourced globally from academia, government, industry, think-tanks, and development/relief organizations. The paper confirms that policy interventions are often prioritized for national interests and poorly coordinated at regional and global scales. The paper acknowledges future compounding trends such as climate change and demographic shifts and suggests that while there are signs of incremental progress in better managing the impacts of shock events, coordinated responses at scale will require a paradigm shift involving major policy, market, and technological advancements, and a wide range of public and private sector stakeholders.

In 1972, the Limits to Growth, using the World3 System Dynamics model, modeled for the first time the long-term risk of food security, which would emerge from the complex relation between capital and population growth within the limits of the planet. In this paper, we present a novel system dynamics model to explore the short-term dynamics of the food and energy system within the wider global economic framework. By merging structures of the World3, Money, and Macroeconomy Dynamics (MMD) and the Energy Transition and the Economy (ETE) models, we present a closed system global economy model, where growth is driven by population growth and government debt. The agricultural sector is a general disequilibrium productive sector grounded on World3, where capital investment and land development decisions are made to meet population food need, thus generating cascade demands for the energy and capital sector. Energy and Capital Sectors employ a more standard economic approach in line with MMD and ETE. By taking into account the role of financial, real, and natural capital, the model can be used to explore alternative scenarios driven by uncertainty and risk, such as climate extreme events and their impacts on food production. The paper presents scenario analysis of the impact of an exogenous price, production, and subsidies shock in the food and/or energy dimensions on the economic system, understanding the sources of potential cascade effects, thus providing a systemic risk assessment tool to inform global food security policies.

Due to negative consequences of climate change for agriculture and food production shocks affecting different areas of the world, the past two decades saw the conditions of global food security increasingly worsen. This has resulted in negative consequences for the world economy, partly causing international food price spikes and social upheavals. In this paper we present statistical findings along with a preliminary version of an original agent-based model called the Dawe Global Security Model that simulates the global food market and the political fragility of countries. The model simulates the effects of food insecurity on international food prices and how these, coupled with national political fragility and international food trade can, in turn, increase the probability of food riots in countries. The agents in the model are the 213 countries of the world whose characteristics reflect empirical data and the international trade of food is also simulated based on real trade partnerships and data. The model has been informed, calibrated and validated using real data and the results of these procedures are presented in the paper. To further test the model we also present the model's forecasts for the near future in terms of food prices and incidence of food riots. The Dawe Global Security Model can be used to test scenarios on the evolution of shocks to global food production and analyse consequences for food riots. Further developments of the model can include national responses to food crises to investigate how countries can influence the spread of global food crises.

In 1972, The Limits to Growth, using the World3 System Dynamics model, modeled for the first time the long-term risk of food security, which would emerge from the complex relation between capital and population growth within the limits of the planet. In this paper, we present a novel system dynamics model to explore the short-term dynamics of the food and energy system within the wider global economic framework. By merging structures of the World3, Money, and Macroeconomy Dynamics (MMD) and the Energy Transition and the Economy (ETE) models, we present a closed system global economy model, where growth is driven by population growth and government debt. The agricultural sector is a general disequilibrium productive sector grounded on World3, where capital investment and land development decisions are made to meet population food need, thus generating cascade demands for the energy and capital sector. Energy and Capital Sectors employ a more standard economic approach in line with MMD and ETE. By taking into account the role of financial, real, and natural capital, the model can be used to explore alternative scenarios driven by uncertainty and risk, such as climate extreme events and their impacts on food production. The paper presents scenario analysis of the impact of an exogenous price, production, and subsidies shock in the food and/or energy dimensions on the economic system, understanding the sources of potential cascade effects, thus providing a systemic risk assessment tool to inform global food security policies.

This paper focusses on investigating the underlying mechanisms and influences of the policy decision making process and how it affects and impacts the governance of the Nigerian energy industry, and energy infrastructure provisions. In-depth semi-structured interviews were used; all interviewees had been involved, directly or indirectly, in energy infrastructure policy decisions in Nigeria. Five key themes subsequently emerged as salient intra-country induced influences that were affecting the governance and performance of the Nigerian energy sector: (1) competencies – i.e. practical knowledge of energy policy making; (2) expectations – i.e. past, present, and forecasted future expectations from the energy industry; (3) legislation – i.e. institutionalized (and unwritten) rules/procedures; (4) future visions – i.e. future vision of the energy industry/energy market; (5) recruiting experts – i.e. recruiting new energy and public policy makers. In addition, three major inter-country induced influences were also identified: (1) the changing dynamics of international and foreign aid; (2) the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals; and (3) the Paris Agreements on Climate Change. The paper concludes by highlighting the policy implications of these influences, and the consequences for policy makers in the governance of the energy industry in ensuring a secured energy future.