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© 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Many studies analyze trends on sea level data with the underlying purpose of finding indications of a long-term change that could be interpreted as the signature of anthropogenic climate change. The identification of a long-term trend is a signal-to-noise problem where the natural variability (the ''noise'') can mask the long-term trend (the ''signal''). The signal-to-noise ratio depends on the magnitude of the long-term trend, on the magnitude of the natural variability, and on the length of the record, as the climate noise is larger when averaged over short time scales and becomes smaller over longer averaging periods. In this paper, we evaluate the time required to detect centennial sea level linear trends and accelerations at global and regional scales. Using model results and tide gauge observations, we find that the averaged detection time for a centennial linear trend is 87.9, 76.0, 59.3, 40.3, and 25.2 years for trends of 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0, and 10.0 mm/yr, respectively. However, in regions with large decadal variations like the Gulf Stream or the Circumpolar current, these values can increase up to a 50%. The spatial pattern of the detection time for sea level accelerations is almost identical. The main difference is that the length of the records has to be about 40-60 years longer to detect an acceleration than to detect a linear trend leading to an equivalent change after 100 years. Finally, we have used a new sea level reconstruction, which provides a more accurate representation of interannual variability for the last century in order to estimate the detection time for global mean sea level trends and accelerations. Our results suggest that the signature of natural variability in a 30 year global mean sea level record would be less than 1 mm/yr. Therefore, at least 2.2 mm/yr of the recent sea level trend estimated by altimetry cannot be attributed to natural multidecadal variability. ; This work has been carried out in the framework of the projects VANIMEDAT-2 (CTM2009-10163-C02-01, funded by the Spanish Marine Science and Technology Program and the E-Plan of the Spanish Government) and ESCENARIOS (funded by the Agencia Estatal de Meteorología). G. Jordà acknowledges a Postdoctoral grant from the Conselleria d'Educació, Cultura i Universitats del Govern de les Illes Balears and the European Science Foundation ; Peer Reviewed

Many studies analyze trends on sea level data with the underlying purpose of finding indications of a long-term change that could be interpreted as the signature of anthropogenic climate change. The identification of a long-term trend is a signal-to-noise problem where the natural variability (the ''noise'') can mask the long-term trend (the ''signal''). The signal-to-noise ratio depends on the magnitude of the long-term trend, on the magnitude of the natural variability, and on the length of the record, as the climate noise is larger when averaged over short time scales and becomes smaller over longer averaging periods. In this paper, we evaluate the time required to detect centennial sea level linear trends and accelerations at global and regional scales. Using model results and tide gauge observations, we find that the averaged detection time for a centennial linear trend is 87.9, 76.0, 59.3, 40.3, and 25.2 years for trends of 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0, and 10.0 mm/yr, respectively. However, in regions with large decadal variations like the Gulf Stream or the Circumpolar current, these values can increase up to a 50%. The spatial pattern of the detection time for sea level accelerations is almost identical. The main difference is that the length of the records has to be about 40-60 years longer to detect an acceleration than to detect a linear trend leading to an equivalent change after 100 years. Finally, we have used a new sea level reconstruction, which provides a more accurate representation of interannual variability for the last century in order to estimate the detection time for global mean sea level trends and accelerations. Our results suggest that the signature of natural variability in a 30 year global mean sea level record would be less than 1 mm/yr. Therefore, at least 2.2 mm/yr of the recent sea level trend estimated by altimetry cannot be attributed to natural multidecadal variability. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. ; This work has been carried out in the framework of the projects VANIMEDAT-2 (CTM2009-10163-C02-01, funded by the Spanish Marine Science and Technology Program and the E-Plan of the Spanish Government) and ESCENARIOS (funded by the Agencia Estatal de Meteorología). G. Jordà acknowledges a Postdoctoral grant from the Conselleria d'Educació, Cultura i Universitats del Govern de les Illes Balears and the European Science Foundation ; Peer Reviewed

Jordá, Gabriel . et al.-- 35 pages, 18 figures, 12 tables ; This paper presents a review of the state-of-the-art in understanding and quantification of the Mediterranean heat and mass (i.e. salt and water) budgets. The budgets are decomposed into a basin averaged surface component, lateral boundary components (through the Gibraltar and the Dardanelles Straits), a river input component and a content change component. An assessment of the different methods and observational products that have been used to quantify each of these components is presented. The values for the long term average of each component are also updated based on existing literature and a first estimate of heat fluxes associated with the riverine input has been produced. Special emphasis is put on the characterization of associated uncertainties and proposals for advancing current knowledge are presented for each budget component. With the present knowledge of the different components, the Mediterranean budgets can be closed within the range of uncertainty. However, the uncertainty range remains relatively high for several terms, particularly the basin averaged surface heat fluxes. Consequently, the basin averaged heat budget remains more strongly constrained by the Strait of Gibraltar heat transport than by the surface heat flux. It is worth remarking that if a short (∼few years) averaging period is used, then the heat content change must also be considered to constrain the heat budget. Concerning the water and salt fluxes, the highest uncertainties are found in the direct estimates of the Strait of Gibraltar water and salt transport. Therefore, the indirect estimate of those transports using the budget closure leads to smaller uncertainties than the estimates based on direct observations. Finally, estimates of Mediterranean heat and salt content trends are also reviewed. However, these cannot be improved through the indirect estimates due to the large temporal uncertainties associated to the surface fluxes and the fluxes through Gibraltar. The consequences of these results for estimates of the Mediterranean temperature and salinity trends obtained from numerical modelling are also considered ; This work has been partially funded by the ENVIMED/MISTRALS program through the MedMAHB and TANGRAM projects. G. Jordà acknowledges a Ramón y Cajal contract (RYC-2013-14714) funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and the Regional Government of the Balearic Islands and the Spanish-funded CLIFISH project (CTM2015-66400-C3-2-R). Data from the monitoring station at Gibraltar have been collected within the frame of Spanish-funded INGRES projects (REN03-01608, CTM06-02326 and CTM2010-21229). J. Chiggiato and K. Schroeder acknowledge the Italian National Project RITMARE, funded by the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research and the FP7 EU Ocean-Certain (GA #603773) ; Peer Reviewed

The Eastern Mediterranean Transient (EMT) occurred in the Aegean Sea from 1988 to 1995 and is the most significant intermediate-to-deep Mediterranean overturning perturbation reported by instrumental records. The EMT was likely caused by accumulation of high salinity waters in the Levantine and enhanced heat loss in the Aegean Sea, coupled with surface water freshening in the Sicily Channel. It is still unknown whether similar transients occurred in the past and, if so, what their forcing processes were. In this study, sediments from the Sicily Channel document surface water freshening (SCFR) at 1910 ± 12, 1812 ± 18, 1725 ± 25 and 1580 ± 30 CE. A regional ocean hindcast links SCFR to enhanced deep-water production and in turn to strengthened Mediterranean thermohaline circulation. Independent evidence collected in the Aegean Sea supports this reconstruction, showing that enhanced bottom water ventilation in the Eastern Mediterranean was associated with each SCFR event. Comparison between the records and multi-decadal atmospheric circulation patterns and climatic external forcings indicates that Mediterranean circulation destabilisation occurs during positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) phases, reduced solar activity and strong tropical volcanic eruptions. They may have recurrently produced favourable deep-water formation conditions, both increasing salinity and reducing temperature on multi-decadal time scales. ; Funding for this work was provided by the European Union's Seventh Framework programme, FP7 under grant agreement no 265103 (MedSeA Project) and no 243908 (Past4FutureProject), Red CONSOLIDER GRACCIE CTM2014-59111-RED and the Past Global Changes (PAGES) project, which in turn received support from the US and Swiss National Science Foundations. G.J. thanks a postdoctoral grant (PD-036-2013) from the Comunitat Autonoma de les Illes Balears and the European Social Fund and a Ramón y Cajal contract (RYC-2013-14714). We acknowledge the support of the Generalitat de Catalunya to MERS (2014 SGR–1356) and Applied Geography (2014 SGR–1090). ; Peer Reviewed

Fanny Adloff et al. ; The Mediterranean climate is expected to become warmer and drier during the twenty-first century. Mediterranean Sea response to climate change could be modulated by the choice of the socio-economic scenario as well as the choice of the boundary conditions mainly the Atlantic hydrography, the river runoff and the atmospheric fluxes. To assess and quantify the sensitivity of the Mediterranean Sea to the twenty-first century climate change, a set of numerical experiments was carried out with the regional ocean model NEMOMED8 set up for the Mediterranean Sea. The model is forced by air–sea fluxes derived from the regional climate model ARPEGE-Climate at a 50-km horizontal resolution. Historical simulations representing the climate of the period 1961–2000 were run to obtain a reference state. From this baseline, various sensitivity experiments were performed for the period 2001–2099, following different socio-economic scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. For the A2 scenario, the main three boundary forcings (river runoff, near-Atlantic water hydrography and air–sea fluxes) were changed one by one to better identify the role of each forcing in the way the ocean responds to climate change. In two additional simulations (A1B, B1), the scenario is changed, allowing to quantify the socio-economic uncertainty. Our 6-member scenario simulations display a warming and saltening of the Mediterranean. For the 2070–2099 period compared to 1961–1990, the sea surface temperature anomalies range from +1.73 to +2.97 °C and the SSS anomalies spread from +0.48 to +0.89. In most of the cases, we found that the future Mediterranean thermohaline circulation (MTHC) tends to reach a situation similar to the eastern Mediterranean Transient. However, this response is varying depending on the chosen boundary conditions and socio-economic scenarios. Our numerical experiments suggest that the choice of the near-Atlantic surface water evolution, which is very uncertain in General Circulation Models, has the largest impact on the evolution of the Mediterranean water masses, followed by the choice of the socio-economic scenario. The choice of river runoff and atmospheric forcing both have a smaller impact. The state of the MTHC during the historical period is found to have a large influence on the transfer of surface anomalies toward depth. Besides, subsurface currents are substantially modified in the Ionian Sea and the Balearic region. Finally, the response of thermosteric sea level ranges from +34 to +49 cm (2070–2099 vs. 1961–1990), mainly depending on the Atlantic forcing. © 2015, The Author(s) ; This study was carried out in the frame of a post-doc project funded by AXA Research Fund. We thank Loïc Houpert for providing the climatology of mixed layer depth. Most of the simulations were carried in the framework of the projects VANIMEDAT-2 (CTM2009-10163-C02-01, funded by the Spanish Marine Science and Technology Program and the E-Plan of the Spanish Government) and ESCENARIOS (funded by the Agencia Estatal de METeorología, AEMET). This work is also a contribution to the HyMeX programme (HYdrological cycle in the Mediterranean EXperiment) through INSU-MISTRALS support and the Med-CORDEX initiative (http://www.medcordex.eu/). This research has received funding from the French National Research Agency (ANR) project REMEMBER (contract ANR-12-SENV-001). We also thank the european projects FP7 CLIM-RUN (contract FP7-ENV-2010-265192) and FP7-IMPACT2C (grant 282746) for their support. G. Jordà acknowledges a "Ramón y Cajal" contract funded by the Spanish Government (RYC-2013-14714) and a postdoctoral grant from the Conselleria d'Educacio, Cultura i Universitats del Govern de les Illes Balears and the European Science Foundation ; Peer Reviewed

Rising global sea level increases the vulnerability of coastal regions to storm surge flooding. The impact of extreme high waters resulting from the combination of tidal oscillations and changes in mean sea level and in storm surges during the 21st century has been explored in the Bizkaian coast (northern Spain). Mean sea level variations due to temperature changes were estimated from an ensemble mean of global atmosphere-ocean general circulation models in the Bay of Biscay under A1B and A2 climate change scenarios. Changes in the frequency and intensity of storm surges were obtained from the output of a barotropic regional ocean model forced by greenhouse gas concentrations during 2000−2100. The storm surge model was calibrated using available tide gauge observations. Based on the above estimations, return levels of total sea level extremes are expected to increase by up to 40 cm with respect to present-day values. The likely impacts of resulting floods on coastal and estuarine habitats of the Bizkaian coast were assessed applying the return levels to a high precision light detection and ranging (LiDAR) based Digital Terrain Model. Results show that during the second half of the 21st century up to 202 ha are under risk of flooding, of which 50% correspond to urbanized land including industrial and residential areas. This represents a more than 3-fold increase compared to the area at risk from present sea level extremes. This study provides insight into both regional sea level variability and local floodrisks, and thus provides inputs for the formulation of effective mid-term adaptation measures to sea level extremes. ; This project has been supported by the Department of Environment and Regional Planning and by the Industry, Trade and Tourism Department of the Basque Government (K-Egokitzen II project, Etortek Funding Program) and the projects VANIMEDAT-2 (CTM2009-10163- C02-01, funded by the Spanish Marine Science and Technology Program and the E-Plan of the Spanish Government) and ESCENARIOS (funded by the Agencia Estatal de METeorología). G.J. acknowledges a 'JAE-DOC' contract funded by the Spanish Research Council (CSIC). M.M. acknowledges a 'Ramon y Cajal' contract funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science. The authors acknowledge the contribution of R. Moncho for valuable technical support with LiDAR data processing. ; Peer reviewed

Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (projects ESTRESX CTM2012-32603 and CLIMPACT CGL2014-54246-C2-1-R). Ramón y Cajal contract (RYC-2013-14714) funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness and the Regional Government of the Balearic Islands. ; Peer Reviewed

The contribution of atmospheric pressure and wind to the XXI century sea level variability in Southern Europe is explored under different climate change scenarios. The barotropic version of the HAMSOM model is forced with the output of the atmospheric ARPEGE model run under scenarios B1, A1B and A2. Additionally, a control simulation forced by observed SST, GHGs and aerosols concentrations for the period 1950-2000 and a hindcast forced by a dynamical downscalling of ERA40 for the period 1958-2001 are also run using the same models. The hindcast results have been validated against tide gauge observations showing good agreement with correlations around 0.8 and root mean square error of 3.2. cm. A careful comparison between the control simulation and the hindcast shows a reasonably good agreement between both runs in statistical terms, which points towards the reliability of the modelling system when it is forced only by GHG and aerosols concentrations. The results for the XXI century indicate a sea level decrease that would be especially strong in winter, with trends of up to - 0.8 ± 0.1. mm/year in the central Mediterranean under the A2 scenario. Trends in summer are small but positive (~. 0.05 ± 0.04. mm/yr), then leading to an increase in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle. The interannual variability also shows some changes, the most important being a widespread standard deviation increase of up to 40%. An increase in the frequency of positive phases of the NAO explains part of the winter negative trends. Also, an increase in the NAO variability would be responsible for the projected increase of the interannual variability of the atmospheric component of sea level. Conversely, the intra-annual variability (1-12. months excluding the seasonal cycle) does not show significant changes. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. ; This work has been carried out in the framework of the projects VANIMEDAT-2 (CTM2009-10163-C02-01, funded by the Spanish Marine Science and Technology Program and the E-Plan of the Spanish Government) and ESCENARIOS (funded by the Agencia Estatal de METeorología). Additional funding from the Platja de Palma Consortium is also acknowledged. G. Jordà acknowledges a "JAE-DOC" contract funded by the Spanish Research Council (CSIC). ; Peer Reviewed

The Mediterranean Sea is warming at three times the rate of the global ocean raising concerns about the vulnerability of marine organisms to climate change. Macrophytes play a key role in coastal ecosystems, therefore predicting how warming will affect these key species is critical to understand the effects of climate change on Mediterranean coastal ecosystems. We measured the physiological performance of six dominant native Mediterranean macrophytes under ten temperature treatments ranging from 12 to 34°C to examine their thermal niche, and vulnerability to projected warming in the western Mediterranean up until 2100. Among the macrophytes tested, Cymodocea nodosa was the species with the highest thermal optima and it was beyond current summer temperature. Therefore, C. nodosa may benefit from projected warming over the coming century. The optimal temperature for growth of the other species (Posidonia oceanica, Cystoseira compressa, Padina pavonica, Caulerpa prolifera, and Halimeda tuna) was lower. Similarly, the species presented different upper lethal limits, spanning at least across 5.1°C between 28.9°C (P. oceanica) and >34°C (C. nodosa). Our results demonstrate the variable physiological responses of species within the same local community to temperature changes and highlight important potential differences in climate change vulnerability, among species within coastal marine ecosystems. ; This study was funded by the project Medshift (CGL2015‐71809‐P, Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness). This study was conducted as a Master's thesis (IS) of the International Master of Science (MSc) Marine Biodiversity and Conservation (EMBC+) offered by a consortium of 6 European universities: Ghent University (leading university), University of Algarve, University Pierre and Marie Curie, Galway‐Mayo Institute of Technology, Bremen University and the University of Oviedo. SB received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No 659246. ; Peer reviewed

The Red Sea holds one of the most diverse marine ecosystems in the world, although fragile and vulnerable to ocean warming. Several studies have analysed the spatio-temporal evolution of temperature in the Red Sea using satellite data, thus focusing only on the surface layer and covering the last ∼30 years. To better understand the long-term variability and trends of temperature in the whole water column, we produce a 3-D gridded temperature product (TEMPERSEA) for the period 1958–2017, based on a large number of in situ observations, covering the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. After a specific quality control, a mapping algorithm based on optimal interpolation have been applied to homogenize the data. Also, an estimate of the uncertainties of the product has been generated. The calibration of the algorithm and the uncertainty computation has been done through sensitivity experiments based on synthetic data from a realistic numerical simulation. TEMPERSEA has been compared to satellite observations of sea surface temperature for the period 1981–2017, showing good agreement especially in those periods when a reasonable number of observations were available. Also, very good agreement has been found between air temperatures and reconstructed sea temperatures in the upper 100 m for the whole period 1958–2017, enhancing confidence in the quality of the product. The product has been used to characterize the spatio-temporal variability of the temperature field in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden at different timescales (seasonal, interannual and multidecadal). Clear differences have been found between the two regions suggesting that the Red Sea variability is mainly driven by air–sea interactions, while in the Gulf of Aden the lateral advection of water plays a relevant role. Regarding long-term evolution, our results show only positive trends above 40 m depth, with maximum trends of 0.045 + 0.016 ∘C decade−1 at 15 m, and the largest negative trends at 125 m (−0.072+0.011 ∘C decade−1). Multidecadal variations have a strong impact on the trend computation and restricting them to the last 30–40 years of data can bias high the trend estimates. ; This research was funded by King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) through funds provided to S.A. and C.M.D (BAS/1/1072-01-01). Miguel Agulles has been partly funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 776661 (SOCLIMPACT project).

Marbà N, Jordà G, Agusti S, Girard C, Duarte C M. 2015. Footprints of climate change on Mediterranean Sea biota. Frontiers in Marine Science, 2: 00056. DOI=10.3389/fmars.2015.00056 ; The Mediterranean Sea ranks among the ocean regions warming fastest. There is evidence for impacts of climate change on marine Mediterranean organisms but a quantitative assessment is lacking. We compiled the impacts of warming reported in the literature to provide a quantitative assessment for the Mediterranean Sea. During the last three decades the summer surface temperature has increased 1.15°C. Strong heat wave events have occurred in years 1994, 2003, and 2009. Impacts of warming are evident on growth, survival, fertility, migration and phenology of pelagic and benthic organisms, from phytoplankton to marine vegetation, invertebrates and vertebrates. Overall, 50% of biological impacts in the Mediterranean Sea occur at summer surface temperature anomaly ≤ 4.5°C and at summer surface temperature of 27.5°C. The activation energy (geometric mean 1.58 ± 0.48 eV), the slope of the Arrhenius equation describing the temperature-dependence of biological processes, for the response of Mediterranean marine biota to warming reveals that these responses in the Mediterranean are far steepest than possibly explained by the direct effect of warming alone. The observations are biased toward the northern and western sectors of the basin, likely underestimating the impacts of warming in areas where warming is particularly intense. ; This research is a contribution to the ESTRESX (CTM2012-32603) and the CLIMPACT (CGL2014-54246-C2-1-R) projects funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness.We thank Xavier Carcelero for assistance during data compilation. GJ also acknowledges a Ramón y Cajal contract (RYC-2013-14714) funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness and the Regional Government of theBalearic Islands. ; Peer reviewed

Comparative patterns in thermal performance between populations have fundamental implications for a species thermal sensitivity to warming and extreme events. Despite this, within-species variation in thermal performance is seldom measured. Here we compare thermal performance both within-species and between-species, for two species of seagrass (Posidonia oceanica and Cymodocea nodosa) and two species of seaweed (Padina pavonica and Cystoseira compressa) across the Mediterranean Sea. Experimental populations from four locations representing between 75 and 99% of each species thermal distribution and a 6°C gradient in summer temperatures, were exposed to 10 temperature treatments between 15 and 36°C. Experimental thermal performance displayed the greatest variability between species, with optimal temperatures differing by over 10°C within the same location. Within-species differences in thermal performance were also important for P. oceanica which displayed large thermal safety margins within cool and warm-edge populations and small safety margins within central populations. Our findings suggest patterns of thermal performance in Mediterranean seagrasses and seaweeds retain deep "pre-Mediterranean" evolutionary legacies, suggesting marked differences in sensitivity to warming within and between benthic marine communities. ; SB received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement No. 659246 and Juan de la Cierva Formación (FJCI-2016-30728). RV-S was funded by Juan de la Cierva – Incorporación (IJCI-2015-23163), NM, SB, and RV-S received funding from the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness (MedShift, CGL2015-71809-P). NM received funding from the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities (SUMAECO, RTI2018-095441-B-C21). ; Peer reviewed

We present an overview of the changes expected during the 21st century in key marine parameters (sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, sea level and waves) in the sector of the NE Atlantic Ocean close to the Spanish shores. Under the A1B scenario, open-sea surface temperatures would increase by 1°C to 1.5°C by 2050 as a consequence of global ocean warming. Near the continental margin, however, the global temperature rise would be counteracted by an enhancement of the seasonal upwelling. Sea surface salinity is likely to decrease in the future, mainly due to the advection of high-latitude fresher waters from ice melting. Mean sea level rise has been quantified as 15-20 cm by 2050, but two contributions not accounted for by our models must be added: The mass redistribution derived from changes in the large-scale circulation (which in the NE Atlantic may be as large as 15 cm in 2050 or 35 cm by 2100) and the increase in the ocean mass content due to the melting of continental ice (for which estimates are still uncertain). The meteorological tide shows very small changes, and therefore extreme sea levels would be higher in the 21st century, but mostly due to the increase in mean sea level, not to an increase in the storminess. The wave projections point towards slightly smaller significant wave heights, but the changes projected are of the same order as the natural variability. ; The computational work of this paper was carried out in the framework of two projects: VANIMEDAT-2 (CTM2009-10163-C02-01), funded by the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (MINECO) and the E-Plan of the Spanish Government; and ESCENARIOS, funded by the Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET). Some of the analysis and summary efforts were carried out in the framework of the subsequent project CLIMPACT (CGL2014-54246-C2-1-R), also funded by MINECO. In particular, the contracts of A. Martínez-Asensio and J. Llasses are funded by these projects. M. Marcos and G. Jordà acknowledge their respective Ramón y Cajal contracts funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and the Regional Government of the Balearic Islands. ; Peer Reviewed

The seasonal sea level variations observed from tide gauges over 1900-2013 and gridded satellite altimeter product AVISO over 1993-2013 in the northwest Pacific have been explored. The seasonal cycle is able to explain 60-90% of monthly sea level variance in the marginal seas, while it explains less than 20% of variance in the eddy-rich regions. The maximum annual and semiannual sea level cycles (30 and 6 cm) are observed in the north of the East China Sea and the west of the South China Sea, respectively. AVISO was found to underestimate the annual amplitude by 25% compared to tide gauge estimates along the coasts of China and Russia. The forcing for the seasonal sea level cycle was identified. The atmospheric pressure and the steric height produce 8-12 cm of the annual cycle in the middle continental shelf and in the Kuroshio Current regions separately. The removal of the two attributors from total sea level permits to identify the sea level residuals that still show significant seasonality in the marginal seas. Both nearby wind stress and surface currents can explain well the long-term variability of the seasonal sea level cycle in the marginal seas and the tropics because of their influence on the sea level residuals. Interestingly, the surface currents are a better descriptor in the areas where the ocean currents are known to be strong. Here, they explain 50-90% of interannual variability due to the strong links between the steric height and the large-scale ocean currents. ; This research is funded by Lloyd's Register Foundation, which supports the advancement of engineering-related education, and funds research and development that enhances safety of life at sea, on land and in the air. This work is also funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council, which supports the work of X. Feng (in part), M. N. Tsimplis, F. M. Calafat and P. Cipollini at the National Oceanography Centre. X. Feng and J. Zheng appreciate the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars (grant 51425901). G. Jorda and M. Marcos acknowledge two Ramon y Cajal contracts funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and the Regional Government of the Balearic Islands ; Peer Reviewed

18 pages, 13 figures, supplementary material https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2020.00497/full#supplementary-material.-- Publicly available datasets were analyzed in this study. This data can be found here: http://marine.copernicus.eu/services-portfolio/access-to-products/, http://www.ba.ieo.es/ibamar, http://thredds.socib.es/thredds/catalog.html ; Numerical modeling is a key tool to complement the current physical and biogeochemical observational datasets. It is essential for understanding the role of oceanographic processes on marine food webs and producing climate change projections of variables affecting key ecosystem functions. In this work, we evaluate the horizontal and vertical patterns of four state-of-the-art coupled physical–biogeochemical models, three of them already published. Two of the models include data assimilation, physical and/or biological, and two do not. Simulations are compared to the most exhaustive dataset of in situ observations in the North Western Mediterranean, built ad hoc for this work, comprising gliders and conventional CTD surveys and complemented with satellite observations. The analyses are performed both in the whole domain and in four subregions (Catalan Shelf, Ebro Delta, Mallorca Channel, and Ibiza Channel), characterized by a priori divergent primary production dynamics and driving mechanisms. Overall, existing models offer a reasonable representation of physical processes including stratification, surface temperature, and surface currents, but it is shown that relatively small differences among them can lead to large differences in the response of biogeochemical variables. Our results show that all models are able to reproduce the main seasonal patterns of primary production both at the upper layer and at the deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM), as well as the differential behavior of the four subregions. However, there are significant discrepancies in the local variability of the intensity of the winter mixing, phytoplankton blooms, or the intensity and depth of the DCM. All model runs show markedly contrasting patterns of interannual phytoplankton biomass in all four subregions. This lack of robustness should dissuade end users from using them to fill gaps in time series observations without assessing their appropriateness. Finally, we discuss the usability of these models for different applications in marine ecology, including fishery oceanography ; This work was supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program under grant agreement no. 678193 (CERES, Climate Change and European Aquatic Resources). ER-R is grateful for the funding from "Govern de les Illes Balears-Conselleria d'Innovació, Recerca i Turisme, Programa Vicenç Mut." ; Peer reviewed