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Between 1948 and 1979, economic activity in the United States increased almost twice as much as over the entire preceding course of American history. The traditional explanation of this remarkable development emphasizes productivity growth. In the most sophisticated study to date of the factors currently affecting economic growth, the authors of this book show that capital formation is far more important, with the growth of labor resources and productivity a distant second. Their conclusions rest on a far more detailed empirical base than any ever assembled in studies of economic growth. For example, the authors distinguish among 81,600 types of labor input - broken down by age, sex, education, occupation, and industry of employment. Similarly, they disaggregate capital by industry, class of asset, and tax treatment. Their analysis of economic growth is from the ``bottom up'' rather than the ``top down'' approach used in earlier work. The new findings imply that efforts to revive U.S. economic growth must focus on increased supplies of capital and labor inputs. This is the key to more rapid growth and international competition. One of the most important features of the book is the way in which it successfully integrates the theory of producer behavior with the indexing and measurement of production growth. The authors present startling new findings showing that less than one-fourth of overall growth is attributable to advances in productivity. Professor of Economics, Harvard University, Cambridge, Mass USA

Contents -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- Preface -- 1 Designing Energy and Environmental Policies -- 2 Structure of the Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model -- 3 Modeling Consumer Behavior -- 4 Modeling Producer Behavior -- 5 Government and the Rest of the World -- 6 Model Solution -- 7 Externalities -- 8 Policy Evaluation -- 9 Confidence Intervals -- 10 Epilogue -- A Equations and Glossary -- B Accounts for General Equilibrium Modeling -- C Econometric Results -- D Model Solution Algorithm -- References -- Index

New methodology for econometricians, based on the dual formulation of the theory of production in terms of prices. The objectives of econometric modeling of producer behavior are to determine the nature of substitution among inputs and outputs and of differences in technology, as well as the role of economies of scale in production. Recent advances in methodology, based on the dual formulation of the theory of production in terms of prices, have enabled econometricians to achieve these objectives more effectively. This volume summarizes the economic theory, the econometric methodology, and the empirical findings resulting from the new approach.

Volume 1: Econometric General Equilibrium Modeling presents an econometric approach to general equilibrium modeling of the impact of economic policies. Earlier approaches were based on the "calibration" of general equilibrium models to a single data point. The obvious disadvantage of calibration is that it requires highly restrictive assumptions about technology and preferences, such as fixed input-output coefficients. These assumptions are contradicted by the massive evidence of energy conservation in response to higher world energy prices, beginning in 1973. The econometric approach to general equilibrium modeling successfully freed economic policy analysis from the straitjacket imposed by calibration. As a consequence of changes in energy prices and new environmental policies, a wealth of historical experience has accumulated over the past two decades. Interpreted within the framework of the neoclassical theory of economic growth, this experience provides essential guidelines for future policy formation. Volume 2: Energy, the Environment, and Economic Growth presents a new econometric general equilibrium model of the United States that captures the dynamic mechanisms underlying growth trends and responses to energy and environmental policies. Jorgenson uses the model to analyze the impacts of environmental regulations on US economic growth and tax policies for controlling U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide.