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Introduction -- Chapter 1 Keynote speech & Dialogue: Global Financial Turbulence and Changes in the World Order -- Chapter 2 Roundtable Ⅰ: China Economic Outlook -- Chapter 3 Global Financial Turbulence and China's Financial Market -- Chapter 4 Global Financial Turbulence and China's Economic Outlook.

This book brings together fresh economic thinking for China at a turning point for the country. Decades of growth have brought new prosperity to China; economic turbulence in 2022 has led to calls for new thinking. 20 of China's top economists came together at 2022's Wudaokou Forum with innovative ideas and radical new perspectives; this book collects the best of the forum, in a volume that will be of interest to economists, China scholars and journalists. Ju Jiandong, Unigroup Chair Professor at PBC School of Finance in Tsinghua University, Director of Center for International Finance and Economic Research (CIFER) and Center for Green Finance Research (CGFR) of Tsinghua NIFR. After receiving his doctorate in Economics from Pennsylvania State University in 1995, he served as professor at University of Oklahoma and professor at School of Economics and Management in Tsinghua University. He was a resident scholar in International Monetary Fund from 2007-2009, and was the Dean of International School of Business Administration, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics from 2014 to 2017. His work has been published in American Economic Review, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of International Economics, American Economic Journal and other journals.

"Does finance follow the real economy, or the other way around? This paper unites the two competing schools of thought in a general equilibrium framework. Our key result is that there are threshold effects defined by a set of deep institutional parameters (cost of financial intermediation, quality of corporate governance, and level of property rights protection) which can be used to separate economies of high-quality institutions from those of low-quality institutions. On one hand, for economies with high-quality institutions, the view that finance follows the real economy is essentially correct. Equilibrium output and prices are determined by factor endowment. Further improvement in the institutions does not affect patterns of output. On the other hand, for economies with low-quality institutions, the view that finance is a key driver of the real economy is essentially correct. Not only is finance a source of comparative advantage, but an increase in capital endowment has no effect on outputs and prices. Our model extends a standard one-sector, partial equilibrium model of corporate finance to a multi-sector, general equilibrium analysis. Surprisingly, but consistent with data, we show that the size of financial markets (relative to GDP) does not change monotonically with either the quality of institutions or with the factor endowment. Free trade may reduce the aggregate income of an economy with low-quality institutions. Financial capital tends to flow from economies with low-quality institutions to those with high-quality institutions"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site

This paper proposes a simple model to study the relationship between domestic institutions - financial system, corporate governance, and property rights protection - and patterns of international capital flows. It studies conditions under which financial globalization can be a substitute for reforms of domestic financial system. Inefficient financial system and poor corporate governance in a country may be completely bypassed by two-way capital flows in which domestic savings leave the country in the form of financial capital outflows but domestic investment takes place via inward foreign direct investment. While financial globalization always improves the welfare of a developed country with a good financial system, its effect is ambiguous for a developing country with an inefficient financial sector/poor corporate governance. However, the net effect for a developing country is more likely to be positive, the stronger its property rights protection. This is consistent with the observation that developed countries are often more enthusiastic about capital account liberalization around the world than many developing countries. A noteworthy feature of this theory is that financial and property rights institutions can have different effects on capital flows.

Abstract.  We study a Free Trade Area with Rules of Origin and show that there are two distinct regimes. Comparative statics results for the two regimes are exact opposites and a regime switch occurs when ROO become restrictive enough. Consequently, imports into the FTA of the intermediate good first fall and then rise while the opposite pattern occurs for imports of the final good and for the price of the domestic input. We also show that tighter ROO have opposite effects on the well‐being of final versus intermediate good producers and producers inside versus outside the FTA. JEL classification: F13, F15.

In this paper we look at the welfare effects of trade reform in the many‐consumers case. We show that Pareto‐improving reforms with lump‐sum taxation or with non‐lump‐sum taxation are possible in the small country case if sufficient conditions for welfare to rise in the single‐consumer case are met. JEL Classification: F0, F1 Evaluation d'une réforme de la politique commerciale quand il y a plusieurs consommateurs. Les auteurs examinent les effets de bien‐être d'une réforme de la politique commerciale quand il y a plusieurs consommateurs. On montre que des réformes améliorant la situation au sens de Pareto sont possibles grâce à des taxes forfaitaires ou non forfaitaires dans le cas de petits pays si on satisfait les conditions nécessaires pour une amélioration du niveau de bien‐être dans le cas d'un seul consommateur.