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The theory of protest cycles has informed us that the external political environment and the internal competition among social movement organizations are distinct elements leading to the emergence, development, and decline of popular protest. This theory, however, has not been examined systematically. I conduct an event-history analysis to test and refine the theory of protest cycles using a well-known new social movement event dataset. While proposing a general way of operationalizing the core concepts in social movement studies, I show that political opportunity only matters during the initial phase of social movement mobilization, rather than throughout the movement's lifespan. What explains declining frequencies of protest occurrence during the demobilization phase is the joint effect of two internal factors: the institutionalization of social movements and the growing violence during protests. Adapted from the source document.

Bridging the quantitative-qualitative divide in civil war studies is imperative if we are to improve our understanding of the dynamics of intrastate violence leading up to all-out civil wars. Nicholas Sambanis (2004) pinpointed a list of shortcomings in the quantitative literature on civil wars–measurement error, unit heterogeneity, model misspecification, and unclear specification of causal mechanisms–and called for combining statistical and case study work to address these limitations. Sambanis and Paul Collier (2005) then edited two volumes that identified the causal logic and limitations of the Collier-Hoeffler model of civil war onset and the quantitative methods on which it is based, and expanded it through 16 case studies. In a similar vein, Fearon and Laitin (2005) are conducting a "random narrative" project that essentially combines their statistical model on civil war onset with 25 randomly selected country studies.

Abstract. Are globalisation and regional integration producing a postnational identity among a wide variety of publics? Using the World Values Surveys (WVS), this article shows that there is a global pattern in public attitudes toward supranational identity: the younger the respondent, the more supranational. Yet a life‐cycle effect, as opposed to a generational one, underlies this pattern. A multilevel analysis confirms this age effect on supranational identification in 43 countries covered in the recent wave of the WVS, but provides little support for the idea that a country's integration into the global economy and world society promotes supranational attachments among mass publics, especially youths. Regional integration and globalisation appear either complementary or contradictory to this identity shift, depending upon how ordinary citizens perceive their country's involvement in the processes of regional integration and globalisation, respectively.

Inter‐Korean relations can be thought of as one long bargaining session over the terms of reunification, in which the South's strategies depend on its perceived bargaining position and on its estimate of the stability of the Northern regime. After developing the analytical framework drawn from the bargaining logic, we analyze the shift in South Korean unification policies from confrontation to peaceful coexistence and the emergence of two competing visions for unification—confederation and absorption. We identify the logical and practical limitations of both confederal and absorptionist strategies and the intrinsic dilemmas that South Korea inevitably faces in pursuing political integration with the North. We conclude that the current South Korean government's unification policy is a move in the direction of an absorptionist strategy, reflecting the considerable barriers to reaching a confederation agreement with Pyongyang.

Why do democratising nations make the constitutional choices they do? Conceiving democratic transition as a critical juncture, we propose a theory of constitutional choice. We place the degree of uncertainty at the centre of our theorising efforts to explain the relationship between constitutional bargains among competing political groups and the type of executive-legislative relations adopted during democratisation. We posit that parliamentarism is more likely to be adopted under high-uncertainty conditions, while presidentialism is more likely under low-uncertainty conditions. Identifying four factors that affect the level of uncertainty in the transition process, we examine how the choices of executive-legislative relations are made under strong influences of historical and geographic factors. [Reprinted by permission of Sage Publications Ltd., copyright, the International Political Science Association.]

Why do democratising nations make the constitutional choices they do? Conceiving democratic transition as a critical juncture, we propose a theory of constitutional choice. We place the degree of uncertainty at the centre of our theorising efforts to explain the relationship between constitutional bargains among competing political groups and the type of executive–legislative relations adopted during democratisation. We posit that parliamentarism is more likely to be adopted under high-uncertainty conditions, while presidentialism is more likely under low-uncertainty conditions. Identifying four factors that affect the level of uncertainty in the transition process, we examine how the choices of executive–legislative relations are made under strong influences of historical and geographic factors.