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AbstractThis paper develops a model with overlapping generations to show that human capital formation can potentially attenuate factor price movements in response to fertility shocks if education spending per child is inversely related to the size of the generation subject to the fertility shock. The degree of attenuation depends on the effectiveness of education spending in producing human capital. We also find this attenuation effect concentrates generational consumption risk around the generation subject to the fertility shock. The combination of these two results suggest that there is an inverse relationship between the degree of factor price movements and lifetime consumption profiles in response to fertility shocks. Relatively larger generations will experience larger drops in lifetime consumption and relatively smaller generations will experience larger increases in lifetime consumption the less factor prices move in response to generational size. Thus, factor price smoothing does not necessarily translate into welfare smoothing across all generations.

AbstractThis paper develops a model with overlapping generations, where the household's optimal fertility, child labour, and education decisions depend on the parents' expectations or beliefs about the return to education. It is shown that there exists a range of parental income where the fertility rate is high and children participate in the labour market and receive an incomplete education if a parent believes the return to education is low. The act of participating in the labour market reduces the child's ability to accumulate human capital; thus, the action of sending a child into the labour market is sufficient to ensure that the parents' initially pessimistic expectations are fulfilled. It is then shown that a one‐time policy intervention, such as banning child labour and mandatory education, can be enough to move a country from the positive child labour equilibrium to an equilibrium with no child labour.

This paper presents a model in which opportunity differences within society result in child labour, where 'opportunity' is broadly defined but can include school quality, access to higher paying jobs, access to information about the returns to education and actual discrimination. If opportunity differences exist, child labour and poverty are shown to be symptomatic of this underlying socioeconomic condition. It is then shown that policies that ban child labour and/or introduce compulsory education laws can actually reduce dynastic welfare, increase poverty and further exacerbate income inequality within society, because they treat the symptom rather than the disease: the lack of opportunity.

Will an aging population lower economic growth? Economists are generally concerned that the increase in life expectancy could lower economic growth, however, theory does not make a prediction. As life expectancy increases, so should household savings, which results in more physical capital per worker. This will stimulate economic growth. However, as the retired population share increases, this may reduce spending on children as more resources are transferred to the elderly. This will likely reduce human capital accumulation and lower growth. The net effect of these competing influences is an empirical question. This paper constructs a stylized endogenous growth model that includes both human capital and government transfers to the elderly. The model is mapped into a linear statistical framework that allows us to estimate each of these potential responses using panel data for a set of OECD countries during the period 1975-2014. We find evidence that households do in fact increase savings in response to a longer retirement period and this effect is associated with a higher realized rate of growth per worker. However, we also find evidence that an aging population reduces spending on children (or other productive investments) placing a drag on growth. These results suggest it is the institutional response to population aging that will determine whether or not an aging population will place a drag on future growth, not population aging itself.