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Cover -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. RELATED LITERATURE -- III. CHARACTERIZING MONETARY POLICY CREDIBILITY IN SOUTH AFRICA -- IV. EMPIRICAL STRATEGY AND FINDINGS -- Determinants of Monetary Policy Credibility -- Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through -- V. ROBUSTNESS CHECKS -- VI. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- Figures -- 1. Bank Transparency Index: South Africa and its Peers -- 2. Time-Varying Exchange Rate Pass-Through -- 3. Forecast Disagreements and Inflation -- 4. Deviation of Realized Inflation from Inflation Target -- 5. Forecast Disagreements and Inflation Volatility -- 6. Forecast Disagreements and Squared Change in the Repo Rate -- 7. Inflation and Inflation Expectations -- 8. Forecast Disagreements and Output Gap -- 9. Cumulative Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through -- 10. Cumulative Credibility of Redl and Exchange Rate Pass-Through -- Tables -- 1. Inflation Expectations: Pre-2009 -- 2. Inflation Expectations: Post-2009 -- 3 Determinants of Monetary Policy Credibility -- 4. Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through -- 5. Robustness Checks Using Various Measures of Credibility -- Appendix

This study identifies the main shocks that cause fluctuations in French output and their channels of transmission. It uses a large-dimensional structural approximate dynamic factor model. There are three main findings. First, common shocks, especially demand shocks, which seem to originate from the U.S., play an important role in explaining French economic activity. While international trade, relative prices, and FDI flows are the main channels of transmission, the stock market, consumer confidence, and interest rates also matter. Second, France's integration with the rest of the world has inc

We examine the characteristics and comovement of cycles in house prices, credit, real activity and interest rates in advanced economies during the past 25 years, using a dynamic generalized factor model. House price cycles generally lead credit and business cycles over the long term, while in the short to medium term the relationship varies across countries. Interest rates tend to lag other cycles at all time horizons. While global factors are important, the U.S. business cycle, house price cycle and interest rate cycle generally lead the respective cycles in other countries over all time hori