Suchergebnisse

AbstractThis article contributes to methodology of real options analysis of investments in capital intensive process industries, where relatively homogenous outputs are produced using commonly known production technologies. In addition to capacity expansion, the method can be used for analysis of mergers and acquisitions. Valuation of the real option is based on bid price; i.e., the maximum price the firm is willing to pay. To find such a price, stochastic optimization with an expected utility criterion is used to determine investments in product specific technologies as well as in publicly traded financial instruments (the competing investments). To operationalize the valuation principle, we develop a double binary tree employing Kalman filter for scenario generation. For exponential utility, valuation is carried out by dynamic programming. We extend known methods to allow interdependence of the mill cash flow and return on competing financial investments. For forest industries, we provide an illustration, where the underlying price process in our Kalman filter application is a vector error correction model.

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) is envisioned as a performance-based incentive to influence forest use behavior and governance towards the preservation and management of forests. In relatively forest-rich Lao PDR, the policy space that REDD+ planners are attempting to navigate is populated by enduring political and economic interests that affect the country's forest estate. A further layer to the problem of REDD+ planning is the tension between often expert-driven, externally proposed solutions; national ownership over interventions; and the extent of political will to take action to reform currently unsustainable patterns of forest and forest land exploitation. This paper draws from a series of semi-structured interviews conducted in 2013-2014, to develop a political and institutional analysis of the limitations to the effectiveness of REDD+ in steering towards a lower forest-derived emissions trajectory in Lao PDR. While internationally-driven projects follow long-standing national objectives to varying degrees, it remains unclear how REDD+ can target main drivers of deforestation in the absence of a more politically engaged and nationally-owned planning process, that also challenges the prevailing logic of avoiding these drivers. Despite the importance of improving domestic ownership over REDD+, this would arguably be of limited impact unless oriented towards transformational change that would seek to overcome political and economic barriers to avoided deforestation. Stronger ownership could be developed via more mutually driven REDD+ planning, while tackling main drivers of deforestation necessitates as a starting point the engagement of powerful actors that have so far been absent from REDD+ debate. ; Peer reviewed

The rapid expansion of hybrid maize in the uplands of northern Laos is viewed by the government as meeting policy aims related to green economic development. Yet, growing evidence of negative consequences of maize expansion are emerging. Based on farmers' perceptions, we study: (1) farmers' reasons for adopting and abandoning maize, and; (2) implications of commercial maize expansion on local livelihood security and inclusiveness (food supply, income, risk coping, and ability to join maize growing), and environmental sustainability (productivity, and soil and forest quality) over time (2013 and 2016). Results show that maize has advantages in terms of labour allocation, and it provides much-needed cash income. Yet, swidden is the main food provider and an essential safety net for unforeseen risks (including maize crop failures or price fluctuations). The way that maize was produced did not meet the criteria of green economic development due to its negative effects on the environment (soil and forest degradation) and socioeconomic sustainability (household differentiation, increased economic risks, debts, and food insecurity). By providing a local perspective, this study encourages a critical reflection of the underlying assumptions and conceptualization of the green economy approach in Laos, and argues for policies and measures that consider a more holistic perspective of human wellbeing and the environment. ; Peer reviewed