Suchergebnisse

Aus israelischer Sicht

Nekudat Ha Al-Hazor: Hamodiyin Ha-Israeli Mul Iran Ve-Hizballah (Point of No Return: Israeli Intelligence Against Iran and Hizballah), by Ronen Bergman, is reviewed.

Aus israelischer Sicht

Frontmatter -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- Foreword -- Preface, 2004: Old Patterns, New Lessons -- Introduction -- Part I. The Components of Surprise Attack -- 1. The Essence of Surprise Attack -- 2. Information and Indicators -- 3. Intentions and Capabilities -- Part II. Judgmental Biases and Intelligence Analysis -- 4. Conceptions and Incoming Information -- 5. The Process of Analysis -- Part III. The Environment -- 6. The Analyst and the Small Group -- 7. Organizational Obstacles -- 8. Intelligence and Decision Makers -- Conclusion: Is Surprise Attack Inevitable? -- Notes -- Bibliography -- Index

Ephraim Kam observes surprise attack through the eyes of its victim in order to understand the causes of the victim's failure to anticipate the coming of war. Emphasing the psychological aspect of warfare, Kam traces the behavior of the victim at various functional levels and from several points of view in order to examine the difficulties and mistakes that permit a nation to be taken by surprise. He argues that anticipation and prediction of a coming war are more complicated than any other issue of strategic estimation, involving such interdependent factors as analytical contradictions, judgemental biases, organizational obstacles, and political as well as military constraints.

Emily Landau, Ephraim Asculai, and Shimon Stein: One year to implementation of the JCPOA : assessing the nuclear deal in context. - S. 19