Suchergebnisse

The paper studies the impact of migration policy liberalisation on international labour migration in the enlarged EU in a structural NEG approach. The liberalisation of migration policy would induce additional 1.80 - 2.98 percent of the total EU workforce to change their country of location, with most of migrant workers relocating from the East to the West. The average net migration rate is decreasing in the level of integration, suggesting that from the economic point of view no regulatory policy responses are necessary to labour migration in the enlarged EU.

Abstract This article studies the variety gains of trade integration in Asia. Adopting a heterogeneous firm model of trade of monopolistic competition allowed us to estimate not only the welfare gains because of country specialisation, but also the variety gains arising from trade integration. The underlying structural parameters were estimated econometrically, based on a large panel of firm‐level data for the Asian economies (ORIANA). Our empirical findings suggest that, when relaxing the assumption of firm homogeneity and accounting for export market entry costs, the gains from trade integration are higher than in conventional models with representative firms.

This paper presents the new dynamic spatial general equilibrium (DSGE) model – RHOMOLO, which is built to support the EU policy design by undertaking holistic, micro-founded and disaggregated policy impact assessment. The RHOMOLO model is based on the theories of general equilibrium, endogenous growth and new economic geography and incorporates a multi-level government system. The holistic framework of RHOMOLO allows to assess not only economic, but also social and environmental effects of European policies along regional, sectoral and temporal dimensions.

Although the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is not a new tool for analysing policy impacts, it has not gained a wide popularity in regional applications such as rural economies yet. This study demonstrates how a regional CGE model can be applied for analysing regional impacts of changing global economic conditions as well as for assessing inter-regional and inter-sectoral implications of policy changes with even limited computational resources and lacking a full range of regional economic data required by a formal CGE analysis. In the empirical analysis we have found that rural economies in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) accession countries may expect the largest welfare gains from integration into the European Union (EU) if the EU Structural Fund and CAP support measures are implemented immediately but markets are opened gradually to foreign competition.

The issues of the forced migration and integration of refugees in the EU society and labour markets are high on the policy agenda. Apart from humanitarian aspects, a sustainable integration of accepted refugees is important also for social, economic, budgetary and other reasons. Although, the potential consequences of the refugee acceptance are being often discussed, little scientific evidence has been provided for the policy debate so far in the context of the current refugee crisis. The present study attempts to shed light on the long-run social, economic and budgetary effects of the rapidly increasing forced immigration into the EU by performing a scenario analysis of alternative refugee integration scenarios. Our simulation results suggest that, although the refugee integration (e.g. by the providing language and professional training) is costly for the public budget, in the medium- to long-run, the social, economic and fiscal benefits may significantly outweigh the short-run refugee integration costs. Depending on the integration policy scenario and policy financing method, the annual long-run GDP effect would be 0.2% to 1.4% above the baseline growth, and the full repayment of the integration policy investment (positive net present value) would be achieved after 9 to 19 years.

The issues of the forced migration and integration of refugees in the EU society and labour markets are high on the policy agenda. Apart from humanitarian aspects, a sustainable integration of accepted refugees is important also for social, economic, budgetary and other reasons. Although, the potential consequences of the refugee acceptance are being often discussed, little scientific evidence has been provided for the policy debate so far in the context of the current refugee crisis. The present study attempts to shed light on the long-run social, economic and budgetary effects of the rapidly increasing forced immigration into the EU by performing a scenario analysis of alternative refugee integration scenarios. Our simulation results suggest that, although the refugee integration (e.g. by the providing language and professional training) is costly for the public budget, in the medium- to long-run, the social, economic and fiscal benefits may significantly outweigh the short-run refugee integration costs. Depending on the integration policy scenario and policy financing method, the annual long-run GDP effect would be 0.2% to 1.4% above the baseline growth, and the full repayment of the integration policy investment (positive net present value) would be achieved after 9 to 19 years.

Recently, the EU Council adopted a new labour migration policy instrument - the EU Blue Cards (BC) - for attracting the highly skilled workers to the EU. The present paper examines the potential impacts, which BC may cause on less developed sending countries (LDC). Our results suggest that the EU BC will reduce human capital in LDC. In addition, BC will also have a negative impact on knowledge capital. These findings suggest that without appropriate policy responses, BC makes developing country growth prospects rather bleak than blue. Therefore, we propose and analyse alternative migration policy instruments for LDC. We find that policies implemented on the demand side of the skilled labour market are the most efficient. In contrast, policies that address the supply side of the skilled labour market are the least efficient, though they might be less costly to implement.

This paper describes some of the features of a new dynamic general equilibrium framework (RHOMOLO) being developed at the European Commission (JRC-IPTS, together with DG REGIO) for evaluating EU Cohesion Policy. The design of the model reflects the objectives of Cohesion Policy, and a broader understanding of impact analysis which goes beyond pure economic effects and also considers environmental and social indicators. The model has both regional and sectoral dimensions - regionally, the aim is for complete NUTS2 (NUTS1 for Germany) coverage of the EU27, while the potential sector coverage is 23 - all of which leads to very large modelling dimensions and presents challenges in terms of data availability. The model is constructed using the concept of Dynamic Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (DSCGE), which ensures Walrasian equilibrium in a sequence of model solutions over time, and also incorporates elements of New Economic Geography (NEG) in the way it captures the forces of economic agglomeration and dispersion.