Although Egypt has made significant progress toward reviving economic growth, unemployment remains persistently high and a substantial rise in job opportunities is still needed to absorb the increasingly expanding labor force, with the challenge to absorb around 700,000 new entrants to the labor market annually. Other labor-related problems include low female participation, excessive government employment, a high percentage of people in non-decent employment, low productivity and wages, and high unemployment among youth and women. In addition, there is a significant mismatch between available skills and labor market requirements. Last but not least, weak social protection programs preclude the generation of enough decent work opportunities. This new collection of studies addresses these issues and more, with analyses of the current situation and future prospects, and recommendations for change going forward
The paper studies variation in the effects of aggregate demand shocks on the external sector and underlying components and distinguishes between the effects of expansionary and contractionary shocks. The aim is to study the determinants and implications of cyclicality across advanced and developing countries. The composite evidence points to high degree of cyclicality in many countries. Based on time‐series correlations, there is a stronger cyclical co‐movement between the trade and current account balances across advanced countries, compared to developing countries. Further, fluctuations in the financial balance are dependent on developments in exports in many developing countries. The determinants of external vulnerability vary with macroeconomic indicators. The evidence points to higher vulnerability of the external balance with respect to higher trend inflation across developing countries. In addition, constraints on capacity in developing countries could risk external stability as trend growth increases across countries. Government spending is an important determinant of external stability in developing countries, reflecting the adverse implications of higher government spending and a widening fiscal deficit on debt sustainability and external financial flows. Further, private consumption is a key driver of aggregate uncertainty and cyclical fluctuations in the external balances across developing countries.
Purpose Using data for a sample of advanced and developing countries, this paper aims to study the responses of monetary growth and the growth of government spending to external spillovers, namely, the growth of exports and imports, movement in the real effective exchange rate and the change in the oil price. The objective is to study movements in domestic policy variables in open economies that are vulnerable to trade and commodity price shocks.
Design/methodology/approach The analysis evaluates correlations between the responses of the policy variables to external spillovers. Further, the analysis studies the effects of indicators of economic performance on domestic policy responses to various shifts across countries.
Findings Higher variability of real and nominal growth increases the fiscal policy response to external spillovers with an aim to stem further variability. Monetary policies appear to be more responsive to trend price inflation with an aim to stem further inflationary pressures. Fiscal policy's reaction to trend price inflation aims at striking a balance between countering potential inflationary pressures, as well as recessionary conditions attributed to the various spillovers.
Originality/value Overall, the evidence points to the importance of trade and commodity price shifts to the design of domestic policies. Further indicators of economic performance differentiate the degree of policy responses to trade and commodity price developments with a goal to stem inflationary pressures and reduce aggregate uncertainty.
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to study the role of public and private imbalances in the cyclicality of the current account balance in a sample of advanced and developing countries. Within developing countries, the evidence does not establish the dependency of private investment on private savings and private consumption is the main driver of the saving/investment balance. In contrast, private savings seem to be better mobilized to finance private investment and the latter is the main driver of the saving/investment balance in advanced countries. Deterioration in the current account balance in response to higher private consumption could be detrimental to growth and external stability. In contrast, an investment strategy that promotes growth is likely to attract financial flows and reduce the risk of a widening current account deficit on external stability.Design/methodology/approachThe paper studies determinants of the current account deficit. It studies current account fluctuations in the short‐run and explains these fluctuations by analyzing movements in the underlying components: public and private savings as well as investments and resulting imbalances. Of particular interest is the interaction between the government budget deficit, the private saving/investment balance, and the current account balance.FindingsUsing time‐series estimates, co‐movements indicate that fluctuations in the current account balance in many advanced countries appear to be driven by private investment that determines cyclicality in imports. In contrast, cyclicality in the current account appears to be driven by private consumption that determines fluctuations in imports in many developing countries. In general, fluctuations in the government budget deficit are mostly driven by government investment and fluctuations in the private saving/investment balance are mostly driven by fluctuations in private investment. Further, fluctuations in the current account balance appear to be mostly driven by fluctuations in the private saving/investment balance.Originality/valueThe paper explains the dynamics of the current account in relation to developments in public and private imbalances and its underlying components. It shows the effects of changes in the budget deficit and its underlying components on cyclicality in the current account. Similarly, cyclicality in the current account balance with cyclical movements in private savings and investment is studied, along with which factors affect the components of the current account balance. In particular, the paper establishes which components of the current account significantly respond to the cyclical changes in macroeconomic variables.
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to establish a model to study the determinants of financial flows, portfolio and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, and the impact of these determinants on economic variables in samples of developing and advanced countries. The analysis then turns to an evaluation of the effects of external flows on economic activity.Design/methodology/approachTo that end, the paper follows a two‐step procedure. First, the paper estimates a series of reduced‐form equations in differenced form, using annual data, for the current and the financial account balances as well as important underlying components, using a number of macroeconomic indicators reflecting the state of the business cycle as explanatory variables. These include not only a measure of economic growth, but also other factors that vary cyclically, such as the exchange rate and energy prices. In addition, the paper examines the effect of positive and negative shocks to these and other cyclical variables on components of the balance of payments. Second, the results are summarized in three directions. First, cross‐country correlations evaluate time‐series co‐movements between the current account balance and external flows with respect to major determinants of cyclicality across the samples of advanced and developing countries. Second, time‐series regressions evaluate the direct effects of financial flows on the current account balance within the samples of developing and advanced countries. Third, cross‐country regressions evaluate the impact of movements in trend and variability of financial flows on major economic indicators across the samples of developing and advanced countries.FindingsThe results are summarized in three directions. Across the samples of advanced and developing countries, the pervasive evidence highlights the negative correlation between the responses of the current account balance and the financial balance with respect to the various sources of cyclicality in the time‐series model. Second, using time‐series regressions the bulk of the evidence indicates that an increase in financial flows helps finance a widening current account deficit. Third, cross‐country regressions evaluate the impact of movements in trend and variability of financial flows on major economic indicators across the samples of developing and advanced countries. While FDI flows appear significant in differentiating growth performance within and across developing countries, their effects appear to be limited on growth performance in advanced countries. Portfolio flows are more relevant, compared to FDI flows, to financing a wider current account deficit, both in developing and advanced countries.Originality/valueOverall, the evidence presented in this paper establishes the importance of financial flows to external balances and macroeconomic performance within and across the samples of developing and advanced countries. In light of this evidence, macroeconomic policies should target a combination of external balances that can be easily financed by external inflows and align domestic policies to achieve the desired cyclicality in external balances, available financing, and macroeconomic performance.
