Suchergebnisse

The article presents a thesis that a phased reduction of the share of raw materials in the total volume of Russian exports and re-direction of a much greater part of it to domestic processing and subsequent export of final high-tech products are required. The need for such structural transformation is explained not only by the intensification of anti-Russian sanctions against fuel and energy complex, including the introduction of an embargo and price ceiling for its products, but also by the urgent need for a radical change in the very type of growth of the domestic economy - from raw materials export to the one based on innovations. Such shift is associated with devising and implementing a nationwide structural government policy, designed to resist further deindustrialization of the national economy. Based on the analysis of the key imbalances of the Russian economy developed during its market transformation, with a special emphasis on the ratio of consumption, investment, government purchases and trade balance, the author offers his own vision of an algorithm for a reasonable increase in the investment quota not through reducing personal consumption, but by temporarily reducing the contribution of net exports. The analysis concludes with the description of a fundamental scheme of urgently required changes in the functional structure of Russia's GDP with the vision of ways to prevent an excessive imbalance between the revenue and expenditure parts of the Russian state budget.

The article reveals the conceptual defects of the designed and currently law-supported budget three-year plan — 2021–2023. Among them, the author includes the authorities' desire to continue using a rigid budget rule and the implementation of tax maneuvers. The author argues that there is a direct link between the effects of the budget rule and deceleration of the GDP growth in Russia. Overcoming the country-specific recession and the problem of excessive focus of the Russian economy on natural resource extraction should arguably be driven by an increased share of the government spending on its diversification, which requires a substantial relaxation or cancelling of the budget rule. The author concludes that the tax maneuver presents a barrier to curing the «Dutch disease» of the country's economy and therefore requires serious corrections while preserving excise duties on oil and gas exports and to the contrary, reducing the natural resource extraction tax rates.