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Este artículo contiene 12 páginas, 7 figuras, 2 tablas. ; Ocean warming associated with global climate change renders marine ecosystems susceptible to biological invasions. Here, we used species distribution models to project habitat suitability for eight invasive ascidians under present-day and future climate scenarios. Distance to shore and maximum sea surface temperature were identified as the most important variables affecting species distributions. Results showed that eight ascidians might respond differently to future climate change. Alarmingly, currently colonized areas are much smaller than predicted, suggesting ascidians may expand their invasive ranges. Areas such as Americas, Europe and Western Pacific have high risks of receiving new invasions. In contrast, African coasts, excluding the Mediterranean side, are not prone to new invasions, likely due to the high sea surface temperature there. Our results highlight the importance of climate change impacts on future invasions and the need for accurate modelling of invasion risks, which can be used as guides to develop management strategies. ; This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 31622011, 31772449) to AZ, the project CTM 2017-88080 (MCIU/AEI/ FEDER/UE) of the Spanish Government to XT, an NSERC Discovery grant and Canada Research Chair in Aquatic Invasive Species to HJM. CC was funded by National Funds through FCT, I.P., under the programme of 'Stimulus of Scientific Employment – Individual Support' within the contract 'CEECIND/02037/2017'. DNK received funding from the ERA-Net BiodivERsA - Belmont Forum, with the national funder Swiss National Foundation (20BD21_184131), part of the 2018 Joint call BiodivERsA-Belmont Forum call (project 'FutureWeb'). ; Peer reviewed

Altres ajuts europeus: P.A.W. was additionally supported by the European Union Fourth Environment and Climate Framework Programme (Project Number ENV4-CT970586)P.A.W. was additionally supported by the European Union Fourth Environment and Climate Framework Programme (Project Number ENV4-CT970586). ; The tundra is warming more rapidly than any other biome on Earth, and the potential ramifications are far-reaching because of global feedback effects between vegetation and climate. A better understanding of how environmental factors shape plant structure and function is crucial for predicting the consequences of environmental change for ecosystem functioning. Here we explore the biome-wide relationships between temperature, moisture and seven key plant functional traits both across space and over three decades of warming at 117 tundra locations. Spatial temperature-trait relationships were generally strong but soil moisture had a marked influence on the strength and direction of these relationships, highlighting the potentially important influence of changes in water availability on future trait shifts in tundra plant communities. Community height increased with warming across all sites over the past three decades, but other traits lagged far behind predicted rates of change. Our findings highlight the challenge of using space-for-time substitution to predict the functional consequences of future warming and suggest that functions that are tied closely to plant height will experience the most rapid change. They also reveal the strength with which environmental factors shape biotic communities at the coldest extremes of the planet and will help to improve projections of functional changes in tundra ecosystems with climate warming.