Foreign and Domestic Shocks: Macroeconomic Responses of ASEAN-3 Countries
In: Global economic review, Band 42, Heft 3, S. 215-237
ISSN: 1744-3873
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In: Global economic review, Band 42, Heft 3, S. 215-237
ISSN: 1744-3873
Di Malaysia, isu serakan dalam perletakan harga boleh diteliti antara wilayah Malaysia Barat (Semenanjung Malaysia) dengan Malaysia Timur (Sabah dan Sarawak). Dari segi sejarah, kedua-dua wilayah tersebut memang terpisah dari segi politik dan ekonomi sehingga tertubuhnya Malaysia pada tahun 1963. Justeru, kajian ini bertujuan untuk memeriksa hubungan antara Indeks Harga Pengguna (IHP) di Semenanjung Malaysia dengan Sabah dan Sarawak. Di samping itu, kajian ini juga bertujuan untuk menentukan Indeks Harga Pengguna (IHP) di wilayah manakah yang menjadi peneraju atau pengikut. Jangka masa kajian bermula dari bulan Januari tahun 1970 hingga bulan Mac tahun 2005 yang melibatkan cerapan sebanyak 423 bulan. Kaedah ekonometrik siri masa telah diaplikasikan dalam kajian ini.Dapatan kajian menunjukkan kewujudan hubungan jangka panjang (kointegrasi) antara Indeks Harga Pengguna (IHP) mengikut wilayah di Malaysia. Dalam jangka panjang, didapati IHP di Malaysia Timur (Sabah dan Sarawak) merupakan indeks harga peneraju, manakala IHP di Semenanjung Malaysia adalah indeks harga pengikut. Walau bagaimanapun, dalam jangka pendek didapati kewujudan hubungan sebab-menyebab dua hala di kalangan IHP mengikut wilayah (kecuali bagi kes Sabah dan Sarawak). Keputusan ujian penguraian varians pula menjelaskan bahawa IHP di Semenanjung Malaysia memberikan pengaruh yang besar dalam menerangkan variasi perubahan terhadap IHP di Sabah dan Sarawak. Hasil kajian ini telah memberikan beberapa implikasi kepada dasar kawalan harga yangperlu dilakukan olehpihak kerajaan untuk mengawal kestabilan harga.
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The purpose of this study is to examine the role of push and pull factors that have influenced China's outward foreign direct investment (COFDI) in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries. The sample of BRI countries is divided according to three geographical regions representing Europe, MENA, and Asia for better understanding of the main factors that influence the COFDI across the respective regions. This study supports Dunning's FDI theory in modeling the determinants of COFDI in BRI economies by focusing on the role of push and pull factors. This present study also extends and improves the existing research by considering the new factors, new methodology, and splitting the sample BRI economies. Thus, a static, dynamic panel and quantile regression technique was employed to model COFDI determinants for 50 BRI countries from 2005 to 2016. The main findings revealed that China's minimum wage policy, including the host countries' natural resources, labor cost, and institutional factors were the key determinants influencing COFDI. However, some determinants such as the host countries' gross domestic product, total patents, trade openness, and inflation rate did not significantly influence COFDI. By splitting the sample according to the respective regions, the results revealed that only the minimum wage policy significantly influenced COFDI in the European region. In comparison, natural resources, gross domestic product, and minimum wage policy were statistically significant for the MENA region. In the Asian region, minimum wage policy, government index, and trade openness were proven essential for COFDI. The policy implications from this study suggest that MNCs from China need to strategize their location for investment in BRI economies. In complement, the BRI recipient countries need to show their advantage and strength in attracting more FDI from China. BRI economies and China MNCs can also be leveraged through understanding how strong the push and pull factors are exerting on outward investment from China. ...
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