Suchergebnisse

As tensions continue to rise between Washington and Beijing, Taiwan's political, economic, and security statuses become more and more of a powder keg that many have worried may explode into military conflict. How concerned, however, should we truly be about the possibility of such conflict in the Taiwan Strait? Certainly, the stability of Taiwan's relationship with China has juggled between hopeful and treacherous; while Taiwan's promising 2008 elections brought fruitful and frequent dialogue across the Strait with China scaling back its overt military threats during President Ma Ying-jeou's first term, negotiations soured in his second term and led to the 2016 election of President Tsai Ing-wen, who has refused to endorse any version of the "one China" principle. Beijing, in turn, has increased military and diplomatic pressure on Taiwan. Kastner takes a three-argument approach in his analysis of the prospects of conflict in the Taiwan Strait. First, through exploring trends that include deepening economic integration, a shifting balance of military power, continued US commitment, and domestic political changes in both Taiwan and China, Kastner believes the likelihood of conflict in the Taiwan Strait has reduced significantly than in the past. Looking toward Taiwan's future, however, there is much potential for high destabilization due to the continuing cross-Strait military balance of power, a point not yet fully appreciated in existing writing on the Taiwan Strait. Despite this second point, Kastner ultimately outlines several plausible pathways through which both Taiwan and China can avoid military conflict.

The purpose of this state-of-the-field article is to take stock of the use of international relations theory in the study of cross-Strait relations since 2000. To what degree have studies of cross-Strait relations made use of international relations theory since 2000, and to what degree has international relations theory provided useful insights for understanding Beijing–Taipei relations? I focus my attention on five topics in particular: the prospects for armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait; alliance/alignment politics and the u.s.–China–Taiwan triangular relationship; interactions between domestic politics (in Taipei and Beijing) and the cross-Strait dyadic relationship; cross-Strait economic integration in the shadow of political conflict; and the role of psychology, emotion, and identity in shaping cross-Strait interactions. For each topic, I survey recent studies that apply rigorous international relations theory to the cross-Strait relationship, and where appropriate I make suggestions for further development.

It is widely believed that China's growing links to the global economy are translating into increased Chinese political influence abroad. This article explores this possibility quantitatively by examining whether increased trade with China correlates with an increased willingness by countries to accommodate Chinese interests. I use newly collected data that capture cross-national variation in the willingness of individual countries to support Chinese government positions relating to Taiwan and Tibet, and China's status as a market economy. I find that increased trade dependence on China is correlated with an increased likelihood of taking an accommodating stance on the economic issue (market economy status). But the evidence linking trade to an accommodating stance on the political issues is more ambiguous.

After decades of tension, relations between the People's Republic of China and Taiwan have improved dramatically in recent years. How durable is this détente? To what degree is armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait a continued possibility? Answering these questions requires grappling with the impact of several different trends in cross–Taiwan Strait relations, including a rapidly shifting balance of military power, deepening China-Taiwan economic integration, and changing Taiwanese views on sovereignty and identity issues. Taken together, these trends help to stabilize the cross-strait relationship. Nevertheless, this relationship has not been fundamentally transformed, and future trends could evolve in a way that again increases the danger of military conflict. In particular, a changing balance of military power in the Taiwan Strait has the potential to be highly destabilizing if it overtakes other trends such as economic integration.

At the end of the day, it is not clear that economic ties will act as a significant constraint on state behavior when high-stakes issues are on the table.